2016 Final Best Actor Predictions

Best actor is going to go to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.  He is a big part of why his film has a chance at winning Best Picture.  Denzel Washington in Fences is the only actor this year that could possibly surprise with a win.  But Affleck has been too consistent in the precursors, and Washington already has two Oscars.

The rest of the nominees are pretty set, but won't win.  The success of La La Land will finally land Ryan Gosling his second nomination.  Viggo Mortensen has been consistently nominated for Captain Fantastic.  Hacksaw Ridge should earn Andrew Garfield his first nomination.  Most of the other leading male performances have fallen out of the race or lack the strength to challenge these five.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actor:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea	Denzel Washington, Fences	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Frontrunner who has been cleaning up in the precursors.  Affleck has another nomination to his credit.  His main obstacle are his personal controversies, but that has been mainly ignored.  Guessing that it won’t factor for voters.	A lock for a nomination, but doesn’t seem strong enough for his third Oscar.  Going to need a SAG win to seriously threaten Affleck, but there isn’t anybody else who could at this point.	Always loved by critics and the internet, but Gosling only has one Oscar nomination to his name.  Leading a frontrunner picture will secure him a nomination.  Although it isn’t deep enough to challenge Affleck and Washington.	Small film role from earlier in the year that has had some staying power in the precursors.  A SAG ensemble nomination for Captain Fantastic shows the strength in Viggo as a contender.  He will get a nomination, but isn’t up to win.	Garfield has been playing the Oscar game well after Amazing Spider-Man.  He missed before for Social Network.  In the past two years he has done 99 Homes, Silence and this.  He is serious about getting an Oscar nomination, and Hacksaw Ridge is just strong enough to get him one.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Tom Hanks, Sully	Joel Edgerton, Loving	Michael Keaton, The Founder	Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals	Adam Driver, Paterson
Hanks has missed out the past few times he’s played the Oscar Game (Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies).  Sully won’t carry him, but he is the only one that could really surprise.  He is overdue for Oscar love and Sully did well enough to justify a nomination.	Edgerton has been around Oscar films before, but hasn’t been in serious contention.  Loving isn’t strong in any categories, but he is just as strong as anyone who could crack the top five.  Edgerton is right on the border of being due for an Oscar and just being a serviceable leading man.  Lacks the reputation of a Tom Hardy or Gosling to carry him.	Keaton has been doing an Oscar film each year for the past several years.  His lost for his comeback in Birdman and didn’t make the cut with Spotlight last year.  The Founder is much weaker than those two films, it is really only considered in this one category.  Keaton seems like he will have to wait a bit longer.	Gyllenhaal has been doing really strong work the past few years, but Oscar hasn’t bitten.  Nocturnal Animals is enough of a question mark where the Oscars could fall for it where other voting bodies haven’t.  It is most likely that Gyllenhaal will keep waiting for that second nomination.	Driver is making great career choices.  Paterson has the right critical response, but is just too small for him to get in on this category.  A few more of these roles and he will be nominated in the next few years though.
THE LONG SHOTS
Andrew Garfield, Silence	Chris Pine, Hell or High Water	Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply	Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead	Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Earlier in the year Garfield seemed more likely for this than Hacksaw Ridge, but Silence is not a strong contender in any category.  Garfield will get the nomination for Hacksaw, but this bolsters his Oscar credentials this year.	Hell or High Water is a strong contender, but Pine has not been in the conversation at all.  It won’t be strong enough to earn him a nomination, but it is the closest Pine has come to an Oscar film.	Beatty’s return was incredibly uneventful.  But his name still means something and Oscars have honored older actors in lesser performances before (Duvall in the Judge).  But Rules Don’t Apply will most likely be shut out.	Early, small contender.  Nowhere near strong enough.  But it has just as much chance as any of these other long shots at this point.	There have been a lot of boxing films in the past few years and Teller has done the physical transformation that voters respond to.  But if Gyllenhaal and Michael B. Jordan have been ignored for bigger boxing movies, Teller won’t make it in.  He is too divisive of a figure and nobody is really rooting for him as an up and comer for him to make the cut.

Why They Weren't Nominated

Taking a look at the movies and people who missed out on nominations.  Not snubs per say, because this post is not about what should have been nominated or movies that I liked more than others.  This is just analyzing some contenders that had Oscar potential and missed out this year.

You can also check out my predictions from last week, I was pretty accurate only missing one or two nominations in m major category.

            

The big upsets for Best Picture were Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club.  Both were late releases and fresher in people's minds.  Philomena was just the type of good movie that people latched on to and supported, despite its lesser amount of box-office or precursor nominations.  Its screenplay most likely helped it out too.  Dallas Buyers Club has two very strong acting nominations which brought it quite a bit of attention.  Its screenplay and editing nomination shows that it was a movie that hit with voters.  Probably a combination of release date, star power, being related to a real issue and campaigning.

The big exclusion was Saving Mr. Banks.  A lot of that may be Disney's inexperience in campaigning, very few movies from Disney or Touchstone have ever received a best picture nomination.  This also did not have a strong enough reception, it is doubtful that many voters placed it at number one.  The lack of a directing contender hurt it too.  But also, as evidenced by Meryl Streep's accusations against Walt Disney last week, Walt is a polarizing figure that people easily latch onto inaccurate rumors about.  The movie did not convince people of the truth and that definitely had a factor in it missing out on best picture, actress, supporting actor, original screenplay and editing.

I probably overestimated Fruitvale Station's chances, but it seemed like the most likely early release.  Early releases did not do well this year, which may be do to none of them receiving astonishing reviews or box-office and the Oscar season being exceptionally strong.  The movie just got forgotten about.  As did The Butler, which had all of the right ingredients for the Oscars but there was enough persistent controversy to keep it down and it may have been released too early.  Also the awkward official title may have something to do with it.  I am still placing the blame for the general absence of Inside Llewyn Davis on CBS Films as a weak, inexperienced distributor.  The movie was also very small among a year of very big films and it just did not stand out enough.

       

My directing predictions were spot on.  Her was not strong enough to get Spike Jonze attention for his direction.  Paul Greengrass certainly had a decent chance after his DGA nomination, but Captain Phillips was not as strong of a contender as many felt.  Ryan Coogler, Lee Daniels and others were not getting in without best picture nominations.

Leonardo DiCaprio made it in, showing that Wolf of Wall Street is a stronger contender this year.  He has been considered snubbed before, which helps.  This is also a career best performance, his role in Great Gatsby helped bring him more attention this year too.  Also Christian Bale was able to ride the hype of American Hustle to a nomination.  His weight gain probably helped.  Both of these performances are broader and flashier than many of the more understated snubs, they were probably just easier to recognize.

The big exclusion was Robert Redford, which was a possibility after missing with SAG.  His film was too small and for whatever reason he has never done well with acting at the Oscars.  Bruce Dern most likely took his veteran slot.  Captain Phillips must have not had enough support, because it missed out in this category too.  The earlier release and potential vote splits with Saving Mr. Banks cost Tom Hanks here.  With The Butler not doing well with voters Forest Whitaker missed out, even with a SAG nomination.  This was a year for established players leaving Michael B. Jordan and Oscar Isaac without much of a chance.  Joaquin Phoenix just did not receive enough attention for Her to be a major contender.

    

This category was always focused on six actresses.  There was little room for other actresses, most notably Adele Exarchopoulos, Brie Larson and Julie Delpy.  Many pundits had left off Amy Adams, but she is too well liked and had too flashy of a role in one of the year's biggest contenders.  I expected that after Meryl Streep won a third Oscar and August: Osage County was poorly received that she would be the one left out.  But the actress is absolutely revered and she had a showy role in an Oscar type movie.  Voters seem to just default to her.

The big snub was Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks.  She is much less popular of an actress than the other nominees which probably factored.  Also her character may have just come across as too unlikable.  But the movie's lack of nominations shows that it just did not work for voters, because it did not get any notable awards and that unfortunately hurt her chances.

               

This was the toughest category to figure out as Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender were the only sure things.  But the voter's love of American Hustle and the likability of Bradley Cooper earned him a nomination many did not think he would receive.  Barkhad Abdi was an unknown actor that just had the right movie and role for him to breakthrough with awards attention.  The amount of fairly consistent precursor nomination most likely put him on voter's radar and definitely paid off for him.  The big surprise however was Jonah Hill who rode the apparent good will for Wolf of Wall Street and has been making good enough career choices to be nominated a second time.

Daniel Bruhl received key precursor notice, but Rush did not and the movie was pretty much shut out. Again, Saving Mr. Banks did not click with voters and Tom Hanks was never the major contender many though he would be for this role.  Posthumous nominations are rare and Enough Said did not get on the voter's radar enough for James Gandolfini to get a nomination.  The buzz about Nebraska being focused on Bruce Dern seems to have harmed Will Forte.  His performance was likely too subtle for this category and he just never quite clicked with precursors for whatever reason.

            

Sally Hawkins was a surprise for Blue Jasmine, which the movie must have been received well enough because she got in in addition to the screenplay.  Jennifer Lawrence was not a sure thing, but American Hustle is just that strong of a nominee to carry four of its actors.  Her career and popularity and buzz about this being a scene stealing revelation also helped.  June Squibb stood out enough as a memorable character in Nebraska.  Julia Roberts and Lupita Nyong'o were locks.

But Oprah was also a lock.  The only main precursor she really missed was the Globes, which is not the most accurate predictor.  It is She may have peaked too early and her return to the screen just ended up being forgotten.  This is the oddest omission, because it is difficult to figure out why she was not nominated.  There must have just been a problem with campaigning The Butler, because the Oscars shut it out.  Also shut out is Fruitvale Station.  Octavia Spencer had too small of a role in a forgotten film and her precursor season did not go far past her National Board of Review win.

Frozen and The Wind Rises were locks and are the two contenders to win animated feature.  The Croods made enough money and was good enough to get a nomination.  Ernest and Celestine played well with the animation industry and GKids has been very good at campaigning small foreign, hand drawn films.  The type of movies that the Oscars should help out.  The surprise animated feature nominee was Despicable Me 2, the first nomination for Illumination Animation.  The incredible box-office most likely was the main factor, but there is a chance that voters are obsessed with irritating little yellow idiots that speak oddly like everyone else seems to be.

The movie that was shockingly left out was Monsters University.  Pixar missed out for Cars 2, but that movie was not good.  The expectation for this to be bad probably factored into it.  People seem to have a backlash for Pixar doing sequels (or in this case prequels) and expect them to be bad.  They were most likely not viewing Monsters as its own movie, but did not like it because it did not feel like a Pixar movie.  However reception was not overly incredible and the movie has not been for everyone.

Best Actor Predictions

          

Best actor features a lot of strong contenders, this is tougher to figure out.  Lone Survivor is a late release that could surprise but it is doubtful if Mark Wahlberg could pull off a leading nomination here  if he couldn't in a weak 2010 with The Fighter.  Before Midnight was received well enough to hang on to Ethan Hawke as a potential surprise, but he will most likely be forgotten this year.  Idris Elba got a Globe nomination for Mandela: A Long to Freedom, but an Oscar nomination for this weakly received film is unlikely.  However a nomination for him could be seen an acknowledgement for the late Nelson Mandela by some.  The well liked Hugh Jackman, who had his first nomination last year, was well received in Prisoners but that film looks to miss out on the Oscars altogether.

            

The up and coming Oscar Isaac has his best role for Inside Llewyn Davis, the year is too crowded with veterans for him this year.  Christian Bale underwent a physical change and leads a strong ensemble for American Hustle, but little buzz seems to be about the former Oscar winner.  Joaquin Phoenix surprised with a nomination last year and has been received well in this role, but he has not performed well in the precursors.  Michael B. Jordan is still being brought up for his strong work in Fruitvale Station.  However the precursors have shown a preference to more experienced actors this year.  Jordan may be too young and new for this batch.  People tend to over predict Leonardo DiCaprio's Oscar chances as he has only been nominated three times and was never a serious contender to win any of them.  The divisive response to Wolf of Wall Street could help or hurt him.

                

Forest Whitaker has not been doing the best in the precursors, but he did get a SAG nomination.  This is the type of role and prestige of performer that voters usually notice.  The Butler seems right up the Oscar's alley and I would not count him out just yet.  He is the most likely surprise in this category.  Tom Hanks has done better in the precursors for Captain Phillips than in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.  With the film doing will in all the guilds he could is a strong contender.  I am only ranking Robert Redford below a lock because he missed a SAG nomination and All is Lost was too small of a release.  Still, this performance has been perfectly reviewed and the film icon has only received one acting nomination in his revered career.

                    

After a strong two years the now respected Matthew McConaughey is finally a lock for a nomination in Dallas Buyers Club.  His weight gain has been well documented and the role has been well received.  Veteran Bruce Dern has been doing extraordinary at the precursors, there is no way he is not a major contender for a win with the well-liked Nebraska.  Chiwetel Ejiofor leads the difficult and much discussed 12 Years a Slave, he is the one the audience gets to feel for.  There is a definite emotional connection to this character in addition to respect for the performance.  Ejiofor and Dern are my predictions for wins, but the performances are much more subtle which is different than the large, over the top characters that often win in this category which may give McConaughey an edge.

Predicted Five:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Runner-Ups: Forest Whitaker (The Butler)