The rest of the nominees are pretty set, but won't win. The success of La La Land will finally land Ryan Gosling his second nomination. Viggo Mortensen has been consistently nominated for Captain Fantastic. Hacksaw Ridge should earn Andrew Garfield his first nomination. Most of the other leading male performances have fallen out of the race or lack the strength to challenge these five.
Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actor:
PREDICTED NOMINEES
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Casey Affleck,
Manchester by the
Sea
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Denzel Washington,
Fences
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Ryan Gosling,
La La Land
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Viggo Mortensen,
Captain Fantastic
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Andrew Garfield,
Hacksaw Ridge
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Frontrunner who has been cleaning up in the
precursors. Affleck has another
nomination to his credit. His main
obstacle are his personal controversies, but that has been mainly
ignored. Guessing that it won’t factor
for voters.
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A lock for a nomination, but doesn’t seem strong enough
for his third Oscar. Going to need a
SAG win to seriously threaten Affleck, but there isn’t anybody else who could
at this point.
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Always loved by critics and the internet, but Gosling only
has one Oscar nomination to his name.
Leading a frontrunner picture will secure him a nomination. Although it isn’t deep enough to challenge
Affleck and Washington.
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Small film role from earlier in the year that has had some
staying power in the precursors. A SAG
ensemble nomination for Captain Fantastic shows the strength in Viggo as a
contender. He will get a nomination,
but isn’t up to win.
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Garfield has been playing the Oscar game well after
Amazing Spider-Man. He missed before
for Social Network. In the past two
years he has done 99 Homes, Silence and this.
He is serious about getting an Oscar nomination, and Hacksaw Ridge is
just strong enough to get him one.
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THE RUNNER-UPS
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Tom Hanks,
Sully
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Joel Edgerton,
Loving |
Michael Keaton,
The Founder
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Jake Gyllenhaal,
Nocturnal Animals
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Adam Driver,
Paterson
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Hanks has missed out the past few times he’s played the
Oscar Game (Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies). Sully won’t carry him, but he is the only
one that could really surprise. He is
overdue for Oscar love and Sully did well enough to justify a nomination.
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Edgerton has been around Oscar films before, but hasn’t
been in serious contention. Loving
isn’t strong in any categories, but he is just as strong as anyone who could
crack the top five. Edgerton is right
on the border of being due for an Oscar and just being a serviceable leading
man. Lacks the reputation of a Tom
Hardy or Gosling to carry him.
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Keaton has been doing an Oscar film each year for the past
several years. His lost for his
comeback in Birdman and didn’t make the cut with Spotlight last year. The Founder is much weaker than those two
films, it is really only considered in this one category. Keaton seems like he will have to wait a
bit longer.
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Gyllenhaal has been doing really strong work the past few
years, but Oscar hasn’t bitten.
Nocturnal Animals is enough of a question mark where the Oscars could
fall for it where other voting bodies haven’t. It is most likely that Gyllenhaal will keep
waiting for that second nomination.
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Driver is making great career choices. Paterson has the right critical response,
but is just too small for him to get in on this category. A few more of these roles and he will be
nominated in the next few years though.
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THE LONG SHOTS
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Andrew Garfield,
Silence
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Chris Pine,
Hell or High Water
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Warren Beatty,
Rules Don’t Apply
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Don Cheadle,
Miles Ahead
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Miles Teller,
Bleed for This
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Earlier in the year Garfield seemed more likely for this
than Hacksaw Ridge, but Silence is not a strong contender in any
category. Garfield will get the
nomination for Hacksaw, but this bolsters his Oscar credentials this year.
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Hell or High Water is a strong contender, but Pine has not
been in the conversation at all. It
won’t be strong enough to earn him a nomination, but it is the closest Pine
has come to an Oscar film.
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Beatty’s return was incredibly uneventful. But his name still means something and
Oscars have honored older actors in lesser performances before (Duvall in the
Judge). But Rules Don’t Apply will
most likely be shut out.
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Early, small contender.
Nowhere near strong enough. But
it has just as much chance as any of these other long shots at this point.
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There have been a lot of boxing films in the past few
years and Teller has done the physical transformation that voters respond
to. But if Gyllenhaal and Michael B.
Jordan have been ignored for bigger boxing movies, Teller won’t make it
in. He is too divisive of a figure and
nobody is really rooting for him as an up and comer for him to make the cut.
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