2016 Final Best Actor Predictions

Best actor is going to go to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.  He is a big part of why his film has a chance at winning Best Picture.  Denzel Washington in Fences is the only actor this year that could possibly surprise with a win.  But Affleck has been too consistent in the precursors, and Washington already has two Oscars.

The rest of the nominees are pretty set, but won't win.  The success of La La Land will finally land Ryan Gosling his second nomination.  Viggo Mortensen has been consistently nominated for Captain Fantastic.  Hacksaw Ridge should earn Andrew Garfield his first nomination.  Most of the other leading male performances have fallen out of the race or lack the strength to challenge these five.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actor:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea	Denzel Washington, Fences	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Frontrunner who has been cleaning up in the precursors.  Affleck has another nomination to his credit.  His main obstacle are his personal controversies, but that has been mainly ignored.  Guessing that it won’t factor for voters.	A lock for a nomination, but doesn’t seem strong enough for his third Oscar.  Going to need a SAG win to seriously threaten Affleck, but there isn’t anybody else who could at this point.	Always loved by critics and the internet, but Gosling only has one Oscar nomination to his name.  Leading a frontrunner picture will secure him a nomination.  Although it isn’t deep enough to challenge Affleck and Washington.	Small film role from earlier in the year that has had some staying power in the precursors.  A SAG ensemble nomination for Captain Fantastic shows the strength in Viggo as a contender.  He will get a nomination, but isn’t up to win.	Garfield has been playing the Oscar game well after Amazing Spider-Man.  He missed before for Social Network.  In the past two years he has done 99 Homes, Silence and this.  He is serious about getting an Oscar nomination, and Hacksaw Ridge is just strong enough to get him one.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Tom Hanks, Sully	Joel Edgerton, Loving	Michael Keaton, The Founder	Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals	Adam Driver, Paterson
Hanks has missed out the past few times he’s played the Oscar Game (Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies).  Sully won’t carry him, but he is the only one that could really surprise.  He is overdue for Oscar love and Sully did well enough to justify a nomination.	Edgerton has been around Oscar films before, but hasn’t been in serious contention.  Loving isn’t strong in any categories, but he is just as strong as anyone who could crack the top five.  Edgerton is right on the border of being due for an Oscar and just being a serviceable leading man.  Lacks the reputation of a Tom Hardy or Gosling to carry him.	Keaton has been doing an Oscar film each year for the past several years.  His lost for his comeback in Birdman and didn’t make the cut with Spotlight last year.  The Founder is much weaker than those two films, it is really only considered in this one category.  Keaton seems like he will have to wait a bit longer.	Gyllenhaal has been doing really strong work the past few years, but Oscar hasn’t bitten.  Nocturnal Animals is enough of a question mark where the Oscars could fall for it where other voting bodies haven’t.  It is most likely that Gyllenhaal will keep waiting for that second nomination.	Driver is making great career choices.  Paterson has the right critical response, but is just too small for him to get in on this category.  A few more of these roles and he will be nominated in the next few years though.
THE LONG SHOTS
Andrew Garfield, Silence	Chris Pine, Hell or High Water	Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply	Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead	Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Earlier in the year Garfield seemed more likely for this than Hacksaw Ridge, but Silence is not a strong contender in any category.  Garfield will get the nomination for Hacksaw, but this bolsters his Oscar credentials this year.	Hell or High Water is a strong contender, but Pine has not been in the conversation at all.  It won’t be strong enough to earn him a nomination, but it is the closest Pine has come to an Oscar film.	Beatty’s return was incredibly uneventful.  But his name still means something and Oscars have honored older actors in lesser performances before (Duvall in the Judge).  But Rules Don’t Apply will most likely be shut out.	Early, small contender.  Nowhere near strong enough.  But it has just as much chance as any of these other long shots at this point.	There have been a lot of boxing films in the past few years and Teller has done the physical transformation that voters respond to.  But if Gyllenhaal and Michael B. Jordan have been ignored for bigger boxing movies, Teller won’t make it in.  He is too divisive of a figure and nobody is really rooting for him as an up and comer for him to make the cut.

10 Candidates for Ant-Man

There is still a lot unknown about Edgar Wright's Ant-Man.  Will it be about Henry Pym, Scott Lang or both?  The internet has been throwing a lot of names around the role of Henry Pym for a number of years.  The consensus seems to be around Adrien Brody, Aaron Eckhart, Patrick Wilson, Simon Pegg, Alan Tudyk and Nathan Fillion (who the internet wants to cast in everything).  Here are my top ten choices for Pym.  Definitely a difficult character.  Pym has never held his own comic and is not well liked.  Ant-Man (or Giant-Man, Goliath, Yellowjacket, Wasp, etc.) is a very different superhero.  Not a traditional leading man, but very insecure and tragic.  Casting the right actor is especially vital for this character as he walks the line between unlikable and tragic.  Need an actor who has a lot of depth, can struggle and gain the audience's sympathy.  Here are some of my picks:

Tobey Maguire

Extremely unlikely that Marvel would consider an actor most associated with Spider-Man for one of their lesser heroes (mainly would confuse audiences).  But in looking at what worked for Tobey as Peter Parker and what a lot of people did not like about his portrayal, those qualities would fit Pym perfectly.  The solemness, sadness, self doubt.  I have read a lot of criticism (that I don't necessarily agree with) that Tobey was a bad Spider-Man because he was too serious.  Well Pym is very much Peter Parker without any breaks.  I think it is a good fit, however unlikely.

Greg Kinnear

This one is also unlikely, even though it would work so perfectly.  Kinnear would be 52 or 53 by the time Ant-Man is released, which would make him too old to start out with the role.  However Kinnear can play a likable sadsack.  He can fail and be introspective without losing the audiences attention.  If he was younger he would definitely be in the top five.

Adam Scott

This was my top pick well before his Parks and Rec cohort was chosen for Guardians of the Galaxy (a casting choice I fully support).  I think that comedic ability is important for the role of Henry Pym in order to not only keep him likable but also to capture his humanity.  Scott has a certain reflectiveness and understated quality that can express a lot.

Casey Affleck

Casey never goes for likable.  He takes a lot of risks and if he were to ever play a superhero this is the one for him to play.  However humor is not his strong suit, and even if this is not a comedy he would come across as too serious to fit into the Marvel Universe.  Still an actor who can make a weasel like Robert Ford fascinating should be considered.

Mark Duplass

Definitely does not seem like a fit on the surface, but Duplass very much has a loser, geeky persona that he has made work in a variety of projects.  In fact I would use his character in Safety Not Guaranteed as inspiration for how to make Pym work in the movies.  Not a movie star, but may be recognizable enough to work.

Michael Pena

I have expressed my admiration for this actor on this blog a few times before.  Pena has a great range and it is often unexpected.  Physically, while he is in great shape, he is of smaller stature which would fit an insecure character like Pym.  Marvel has been great at taking chances on actors and Pena is one who has not quite had his big break yet.

Sacha Baron Cohen

You don't cast Sacha in a movie that he didn't write unless he is really the best choice for the character. Talladega Nights, Hugo and Les Miserables would not have worked without this individual.  I think that he is such a unique performer that he would need a character he could really make his own to justify him in a blockbuster.  That is Henry Pym.  Sacha is not trying to be a movie star, he is an artist that I think would find some definite undiscovered depths tot the character of Ant-Man.  Although having him on board for multiple movies with multiple filmmakers may be difficult.

Jude Law

Can be a leading man without needing to be charming.  Law can play unlikable and second fiddle.  Fits in drama, comedy and action.  Also we already know he could bicker with Iron Man.

Sharlto Copley

I love this guy.  He has only been in two movies, but he had created two perfect characters in those movies.  Between District 9 and The A-Team, Copley has a wide range.  His experiences in both movies would help him with this character.  There is an exciting, almost Sam Rockwell, exuberance to Copley.  For whatever reason Hollywood has not been using him, but this is one of those gambles that Marvel is great at making.

Josh Brolin

The best in the business at bringing humanity to difficult characters.  If he can make an audience follow Dan White imagine what he can do with a mess of a character like Hank Pym.  After Jonah Hex I imagine there would be some trepidation.  But Brolin is a certain type of actor that is difficult to cast in a leading role.  Ant-Man is his type of leading role.