Non-Oscars: Best Actor

I have yet to see Dallas Buyers Club, so I can't judge McConaughey in that film.  I was not incredibly blown away by Christian Bale in American Hustle.  He did fine, but his goofy caricature did not seem to fit in with the rest of the cast.  I never really ended up caring about his character, I always felt that I was watching Bale trying to do a De Niro-esque impression of Tony Clifton.  Wolf of Wall Street is easily DiCaprio's best performance and was eye opening to me as I often find the actor to be overrated.  I am very happy to see Bruce Dern nominated for his subtle, but extremely moving performance in Nebraska.  But my personal Oscar pick would be Chiwetel Ejiofor, who was just as subtle and moving in 12 Years a Slave.  Watching him just breaks your heart, but definitely gets you through a tough film.

Robert Downey, Jr., Iron Man 3
Most blockbuster stars that have multi-picture deals end up being bored and frustrated in the roles that make them famous.  That is because the films often decrease in quality and the actors are usually only in it for the money.  Although reports may indicate that Downey is frustrated with Marvel's paychecks his performances show no sign of Downey getting sick of playing Tony Stark.  In fact Iron Man 3 is easily Downey's best outing as the character.  Downey maintains an incredible consistency between films as he continues a story arc that started at the end of 2012's Avengers.  Stark beat death against incredible odds and now has PTSD.  Downey gifts this new development with incredible weight without losing his signature smarm and likability.  Downey really adds to his character's already developed personality, he really grows in the role.  It should also be noted that Downey keeps scenes with a little boy grounded as they could have been corny.  This movie is the fifth film appearance of the character and I can't wait to see where he goes next.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Fruitvale Station is such an emotional experience, because it gets the audience to care about a very real person who became a victim.  By the end of the movie, you feel like you really knew Oscar Grant and the ending will indeed tear you up.  Jordan is an absolute revelation in this movie.  His respectful portrayal of Oscar Grant is extremely likable but believably flawed.  Not two things that are easy things to work into a portrayal of a real person.  Normally there is some judgement or hero-worship involved in movies that are based on a true story, but Fruitvale Station is extremely raw.  Grant made mistakes and hurt people he cared about, but he was still an admirable human being.  I seem to be talking more about Oscar Grant than Michael B. Jordan, but that is a good thing.  This is not Jordan taking on a manipulative role as an attempt to win awards or be taken seriously, he gets the audience to feel and that is an incredible thing.

Nick Robinson, Kings of Summer
I am absolutely shocked that I am including an actor from Melissa & Joey on this list, but anyone whose seen Kings of Summer knows that Robinson definitely deserves to be mentioned.  Robinson plays a fifteen year old boy who runs away from home to live in a childhood fantasy in the woods.  It should be noted that Robinson would have been around eighteen during the time of filming, but this never feels like a case of Dawson's Casting.  Robinson embodies that spirit of a young teen which is important as the movie hinges on child logic.  Robinson behaves and reacts like an average kid.  No matter how difficult he may behave, he remains incredibly sympathetic and relatable.  This movie describes very much what it feels like to be a teenager and Robinson plays it all perfectly.

Jason Sudeikis, We're the Millers
Comedy stars seem to not count as much as dramatic ones, but good comedy certainly takes talent.  And the dependable Sudeikis is full of talent that can anchor a fun summer comedy.  Sudeikis has transitioned much easier to being a leading film star that most SNL-vets.  Mainly because Sudeikis can find the humor in a normal situation without needing gimmicks or weird characterization.  He plays Dave Miller as a real guy, but seamlessly works in sly observational humor.  He is also a perfect ensemble member.  He is comfortable being the focal point, but also plays well with others and shares focus.  Jennifer Aniston, Will Poulter and Emma Roberts all gave better performances because they had a solid lead to play off of and support them.  I hope that Sudeikis keeps finding great scripts to work with, because he is a star that I will gladly pay to see.

Forest Whitaker, The Butler

On the surface The Butler may look like a pretty gimmicky and manipulative film and it is to Whitaker's credit that it isn't.  Whitaker provides the backbone of the movie that spans almost seven decades and a litany of minor characters.  Whitaker's Cecil Gaines is an incredibly developed character.  He is believably an eager charismatic newcomer, loving husband, grieving family member, risk-taking employee and frustrated father.  In fact it is the scenes where he is at odds with his oldest son that are the film's strongest.  Whitaker provides a counter-point to his son's more aggressive methods of civil rights.  Cecil Gaines is indeed a servant but Whitaker plays him with honor and ambition.  Whitaker is a great ensemble member and a great emotional center for a very good film.

Other Great Leading Performances:

Chadwick Boseman (42), Jake Johnson (Drinking Buddies), Paul Rudd (Prince Avalanche), Tye Sheridan (Mud)

Best Actor Predictions

          

Best actor features a lot of strong contenders, this is tougher to figure out.  Lone Survivor is a late release that could surprise but it is doubtful if Mark Wahlberg could pull off a leading nomination here  if he couldn't in a weak 2010 with The Fighter.  Before Midnight was received well enough to hang on to Ethan Hawke as a potential surprise, but he will most likely be forgotten this year.  Idris Elba got a Globe nomination for Mandela: A Long to Freedom, but an Oscar nomination for this weakly received film is unlikely.  However a nomination for him could be seen an acknowledgement for the late Nelson Mandela by some.  The well liked Hugh Jackman, who had his first nomination last year, was well received in Prisoners but that film looks to miss out on the Oscars altogether.

            

The up and coming Oscar Isaac has his best role for Inside Llewyn Davis, the year is too crowded with veterans for him this year.  Christian Bale underwent a physical change and leads a strong ensemble for American Hustle, but little buzz seems to be about the former Oscar winner.  Joaquin Phoenix surprised with a nomination last year and has been received well in this role, but he has not performed well in the precursors.  Michael B. Jordan is still being brought up for his strong work in Fruitvale Station.  However the precursors have shown a preference to more experienced actors this year.  Jordan may be too young and new for this batch.  People tend to over predict Leonardo DiCaprio's Oscar chances as he has only been nominated three times and was never a serious contender to win any of them.  The divisive response to Wolf of Wall Street could help or hurt him.

                

Forest Whitaker has not been doing the best in the precursors, but he did get a SAG nomination.  This is the type of role and prestige of performer that voters usually notice.  The Butler seems right up the Oscar's alley and I would not count him out just yet.  He is the most likely surprise in this category.  Tom Hanks has done better in the precursors for Captain Phillips than in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.  With the film doing will in all the guilds he could is a strong contender.  I am only ranking Robert Redford below a lock because he missed a SAG nomination and All is Lost was too small of a release.  Still, this performance has been perfectly reviewed and the film icon has only received one acting nomination in his revered career.

                    

After a strong two years the now respected Matthew McConaughey is finally a lock for a nomination in Dallas Buyers Club.  His weight gain has been well documented and the role has been well received.  Veteran Bruce Dern has been doing extraordinary at the precursors, there is no way he is not a major contender for a win with the well-liked Nebraska.  Chiwetel Ejiofor leads the difficult and much discussed 12 Years a Slave, he is the one the audience gets to feel for.  There is a definite emotional connection to this character in addition to respect for the performance.  Ejiofor and Dern are my predictions for wins, but the performances are much more subtle which is different than the large, over the top characters that often win in this category which may give McConaughey an edge.

Predicted Five:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Runner-Ups: Forest Whitaker (The Butler)

Best Actor Predictions

The Predicted Five

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers' Club
Pros: Career has enough momentum to carry him to a win and Oscars love a comeback story.  He has gained a lot of respect and people really seem to want to work with him.  His weight loss for the part has been well documented.  A great role that touches on themes of homophobia and the healthcare system.
Cons: Many will still hold his previous career choices against him.  This movie may not be up for too much outside of acting categories, best actor winners are often in best picture nominees.

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Pros: Been receiving rave reviews along with the movie which is considered the best picture frontrunner.  Ejiofor has been a very dependable actor for years that has just needed the right movie to bring him to the Oscars.

Cons: Competitive category, will definitely get a nomination but has to compete with McConaughey and Redford for the win.

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Pros: The movie has been receiving great reviews and word of mouth with most of the buzz surrounding Redford.  Redford is not just a veteran he is a legend and an icon.  He has also only received one acting nomination.  His revered status and likability along with the strength of his difficult one man performance should easily carry him to a second nomination and potential win.

Cons: The movie may not play well outside of critics and could be overshadowed by flashier productions.  Redford may have to compete with Bruce Dern for one veteran slot.  

Forest Whitaker, The Butler

Pros: A well respected, prolific actor and recent winner who led one of the breakout films of the year.  The positive reviews and incredible box-office should keep this movie as a major contender.  As the focal point among a large cast Whitaker should be easy to notice for his decades spanning role.

Cons: It is an early release and Whitaker has not been up for an Oscar since his win in 2006.  Some have found the movie to be too lightweight or have focused on specific inaccuracies.  Much of the buzz is around Oprah.

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Pros: Veteran actor who has only received one nomination.  Won this year's top prize at Cannes.  Alexander Payne has led several actors to nominations.

Cons: Competitive year and is not as large of a name as his many competitors.    The movie may be too small to be a major Oscar contender.

Runner-Ups

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Pros: Film has had good box office and better reviews, with the likable actor receiving most of the buzz.  Hanks is having a comeback year with this and the upcoming Saving Mr. Banks.  Playing a real life figure in recent history will help get him back in the Oscar game.

Cons: Hanks has not been up for an Oscar since 2007 and has not been nominated since 2000.  Greengrass movies get less attention for its actors.  Hanks will probably stand a better chance in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.

Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Pros: Received a nomination last year despite missing out on several important precursors.  Seems to disappear into this character that seems very relatable to modern technology based society.  Spike Jonze works well with actors.

Cons: Movie may be too unconventional for traditional voters.  May relate better with an internet fan base than actual Oscar voters.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

Pros: The kind of breakthrough role that is difficult to ignore.  Completely carries this difficult movie.  Jordan is very likable and delivers a memorable performance that balances humor and tragedy.  One of the best performances of the year, an up and coming actor.

Cons: Early release date, not as well known yet.  Needs precursor notice and the film to be a best picture contender to make it into the race.

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

Pros: Been an up and coming actor for a while now who finally has his big Oscar role.  Great word of mouth for this performance and the movies.  The status that the Coen Brothers hold in the industry should help him out.

Cons: Seems to be a very underrated performance which is harder for voters to recognize.  Acting does not always get noticed in Coen Brothers movies.  Still not sure if the movie itself will do well with voters in general.

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Pros: Recent winner reteaming with a popular, current director.  Goes through an appearance change.  Gets a big commanding role in a movie that should be a major best picture contender.

Cons: Actors making themselves appear ugly does not work as well as it does with actresses.  Won recently, could be overshadowed by his incredible supporting cast.  A lot of competition.  Movie has not been seen yet.

Also in Contention

The only other actor I can see being a potential contender is the well liked Idris Elba for Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom.  However the film has little buzz and may be too small to gain Oscar attention.  If Wolf of Wall Street ends up being released this year then Leonardo DiCaprio could gain some traction.  However moving the release date has hurt the film's momentum and DiCaprio is not the lock his fans often want to believe he is.  The popular Hugh Jackman has been said to have given his best performance for Prisoners.  Ethan Hawke could join the race if Before Midnight is up for best picture. Despite poor reviews for Secret Life of Walter Mitty at New York Film Festival Ben Stiller may still be in the race if the movie is popular with audiences.