2016 Final Best Actor Predictions

Best actor is going to go to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.  He is a big part of why his film has a chance at winning Best Picture.  Denzel Washington in Fences is the only actor this year that could possibly surprise with a win.  But Affleck has been too consistent in the precursors, and Washington already has two Oscars.

The rest of the nominees are pretty set, but won't win.  The success of La La Land will finally land Ryan Gosling his second nomination.  Viggo Mortensen has been consistently nominated for Captain Fantastic.  Hacksaw Ridge should earn Andrew Garfield his first nomination.  Most of the other leading male performances have fallen out of the race or lack the strength to challenge these five.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actor:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea	Denzel Washington, Fences	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Frontrunner who has been cleaning up in the precursors.  Affleck has another nomination to his credit.  His main obstacle are his personal controversies, but that has been mainly ignored.  Guessing that it won’t factor for voters.	A lock for a nomination, but doesn’t seem strong enough for his third Oscar.  Going to need a SAG win to seriously threaten Affleck, but there isn’t anybody else who could at this point.	Always loved by critics and the internet, but Gosling only has one Oscar nomination to his name.  Leading a frontrunner picture will secure him a nomination.  Although it isn’t deep enough to challenge Affleck and Washington.	Small film role from earlier in the year that has had some staying power in the precursors.  A SAG ensemble nomination for Captain Fantastic shows the strength in Viggo as a contender.  He will get a nomination, but isn’t up to win.	Garfield has been playing the Oscar game well after Amazing Spider-Man.  He missed before for Social Network.  In the past two years he has done 99 Homes, Silence and this.  He is serious about getting an Oscar nomination, and Hacksaw Ridge is just strong enough to get him one.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Tom Hanks, Sully	Joel Edgerton, Loving	Michael Keaton, The Founder	Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals	Adam Driver, Paterson
Hanks has missed out the past few times he’s played the Oscar Game (Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies).  Sully won’t carry him, but he is the only one that could really surprise.  He is overdue for Oscar love and Sully did well enough to justify a nomination.	Edgerton has been around Oscar films before, but hasn’t been in serious contention.  Loving isn’t strong in any categories, but he is just as strong as anyone who could crack the top five.  Edgerton is right on the border of being due for an Oscar and just being a serviceable leading man.  Lacks the reputation of a Tom Hardy or Gosling to carry him.	Keaton has been doing an Oscar film each year for the past several years.  His lost for his comeback in Birdman and didn’t make the cut with Spotlight last year.  The Founder is much weaker than those two films, it is really only considered in this one category.  Keaton seems like he will have to wait a bit longer.	Gyllenhaal has been doing really strong work the past few years, but Oscar hasn’t bitten.  Nocturnal Animals is enough of a question mark where the Oscars could fall for it where other voting bodies haven’t.  It is most likely that Gyllenhaal will keep waiting for that second nomination.	Driver is making great career choices.  Paterson has the right critical response, but is just too small for him to get in on this category.  A few more of these roles and he will be nominated in the next few years though.
THE LONG SHOTS
Andrew Garfield, Silence	Chris Pine, Hell or High Water	Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply	Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead	Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Earlier in the year Garfield seemed more likely for this than Hacksaw Ridge, but Silence is not a strong contender in any category.  Garfield will get the nomination for Hacksaw, but this bolsters his Oscar credentials this year.	Hell or High Water is a strong contender, but Pine has not been in the conversation at all.  It won’t be strong enough to earn him a nomination, but it is the closest Pine has come to an Oscar film.	Beatty’s return was incredibly uneventful.  But his name still means something and Oscars have honored older actors in lesser performances before (Duvall in the Judge).  But Rules Don’t Apply will most likely be shut out.	Early, small contender.  Nowhere near strong enough.  But it has just as much chance as any of these other long shots at this point.	There have been a lot of boxing films in the past few years and Teller has done the physical transformation that voters respond to.  But if Gyllenhaal and Michael B. Jordan have been ignored for bigger boxing movies, Teller won’t make it in.  He is too divisive of a figure and nobody is really rooting for him as an up and comer for him to make the cut.

Non-Oscars: Best Actor

I have yet to see Dallas Buyers Club, so I can't judge McConaughey in that film.  I was not incredibly blown away by Christian Bale in American Hustle.  He did fine, but his goofy caricature did not seem to fit in with the rest of the cast.  I never really ended up caring about his character, I always felt that I was watching Bale trying to do a De Niro-esque impression of Tony Clifton.  Wolf of Wall Street is easily DiCaprio's best performance and was eye opening to me as I often find the actor to be overrated.  I am very happy to see Bruce Dern nominated for his subtle, but extremely moving performance in Nebraska.  But my personal Oscar pick would be Chiwetel Ejiofor, who was just as subtle and moving in 12 Years a Slave.  Watching him just breaks your heart, but definitely gets you through a tough film.

Robert Downey, Jr., Iron Man 3
Most blockbuster stars that have multi-picture deals end up being bored and frustrated in the roles that make them famous.  That is because the films often decrease in quality and the actors are usually only in it for the money.  Although reports may indicate that Downey is frustrated with Marvel's paychecks his performances show no sign of Downey getting sick of playing Tony Stark.  In fact Iron Man 3 is easily Downey's best outing as the character.  Downey maintains an incredible consistency between films as he continues a story arc that started at the end of 2012's Avengers.  Stark beat death against incredible odds and now has PTSD.  Downey gifts this new development with incredible weight without losing his signature smarm and likability.  Downey really adds to his character's already developed personality, he really grows in the role.  It should also be noted that Downey keeps scenes with a little boy grounded as they could have been corny.  This movie is the fifth film appearance of the character and I can't wait to see where he goes next.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Fruitvale Station is such an emotional experience, because it gets the audience to care about a very real person who became a victim.  By the end of the movie, you feel like you really knew Oscar Grant and the ending will indeed tear you up.  Jordan is an absolute revelation in this movie.  His respectful portrayal of Oscar Grant is extremely likable but believably flawed.  Not two things that are easy things to work into a portrayal of a real person.  Normally there is some judgement or hero-worship involved in movies that are based on a true story, but Fruitvale Station is extremely raw.  Grant made mistakes and hurt people he cared about, but he was still an admirable human being.  I seem to be talking more about Oscar Grant than Michael B. Jordan, but that is a good thing.  This is not Jordan taking on a manipulative role as an attempt to win awards or be taken seriously, he gets the audience to feel and that is an incredible thing.

Nick Robinson, Kings of Summer
I am absolutely shocked that I am including an actor from Melissa & Joey on this list, but anyone whose seen Kings of Summer knows that Robinson definitely deserves to be mentioned.  Robinson plays a fifteen year old boy who runs away from home to live in a childhood fantasy in the woods.  It should be noted that Robinson would have been around eighteen during the time of filming, but this never feels like a case of Dawson's Casting.  Robinson embodies that spirit of a young teen which is important as the movie hinges on child logic.  Robinson behaves and reacts like an average kid.  No matter how difficult he may behave, he remains incredibly sympathetic and relatable.  This movie describes very much what it feels like to be a teenager and Robinson plays it all perfectly.

Jason Sudeikis, We're the Millers
Comedy stars seem to not count as much as dramatic ones, but good comedy certainly takes talent.  And the dependable Sudeikis is full of talent that can anchor a fun summer comedy.  Sudeikis has transitioned much easier to being a leading film star that most SNL-vets.  Mainly because Sudeikis can find the humor in a normal situation without needing gimmicks or weird characterization.  He plays Dave Miller as a real guy, but seamlessly works in sly observational humor.  He is also a perfect ensemble member.  He is comfortable being the focal point, but also plays well with others and shares focus.  Jennifer Aniston, Will Poulter and Emma Roberts all gave better performances because they had a solid lead to play off of and support them.  I hope that Sudeikis keeps finding great scripts to work with, because he is a star that I will gladly pay to see.

Forest Whitaker, The Butler

On the surface The Butler may look like a pretty gimmicky and manipulative film and it is to Whitaker's credit that it isn't.  Whitaker provides the backbone of the movie that spans almost seven decades and a litany of minor characters.  Whitaker's Cecil Gaines is an incredibly developed character.  He is believably an eager charismatic newcomer, loving husband, grieving family member, risk-taking employee and frustrated father.  In fact it is the scenes where he is at odds with his oldest son that are the film's strongest.  Whitaker provides a counter-point to his son's more aggressive methods of civil rights.  Cecil Gaines is indeed a servant but Whitaker plays him with honor and ambition.  Whitaker is a great ensemble member and a great emotional center for a very good film.

Other Great Leading Performances:

Chadwick Boseman (42), Jake Johnson (Drinking Buddies), Paul Rudd (Prince Avalanche), Tye Sheridan (Mud)

Oscar Predictions (1/7/13)

With all of the Guild nominations announced and the Globes taking place on Sunday I had better update my predictions.  Click on the links to see my predictions for this years Oscars.  As always please keep in mind that I am predicting who will most likely be nominated, but who should.  If I do not list a movie that you love that is not a personal attack on your tastes.

           

Best Picture

      

Best Director

Best Actress

Best Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

       

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

        

Best Animated Feature (no need to update this)