2016 Final Best Actor Predictions

Best actor is going to go to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.  He is a big part of why his film has a chance at winning Best Picture.  Denzel Washington in Fences is the only actor this year that could possibly surprise with a win.  But Affleck has been too consistent in the precursors, and Washington already has two Oscars.

The rest of the nominees are pretty set, but won't win.  The success of La La Land will finally land Ryan Gosling his second nomination.  Viggo Mortensen has been consistently nominated for Captain Fantastic.  Hacksaw Ridge should earn Andrew Garfield his first nomination.  Most of the other leading male performances have fallen out of the race or lack the strength to challenge these five.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actor:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea	Denzel Washington, Fences	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Frontrunner who has been cleaning up in the precursors.  Affleck has another nomination to his credit.  His main obstacle are his personal controversies, but that has been mainly ignored.  Guessing that it won’t factor for voters.	A lock for a nomination, but doesn’t seem strong enough for his third Oscar.  Going to need a SAG win to seriously threaten Affleck, but there isn’t anybody else who could at this point.	Always loved by critics and the internet, but Gosling only has one Oscar nomination to his name.  Leading a frontrunner picture will secure him a nomination.  Although it isn’t deep enough to challenge Affleck and Washington.	Small film role from earlier in the year that has had some staying power in the precursors.  A SAG ensemble nomination for Captain Fantastic shows the strength in Viggo as a contender.  He will get a nomination, but isn’t up to win.	Garfield has been playing the Oscar game well after Amazing Spider-Man.  He missed before for Social Network.  In the past two years he has done 99 Homes, Silence and this.  He is serious about getting an Oscar nomination, and Hacksaw Ridge is just strong enough to get him one.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Tom Hanks, Sully	Joel Edgerton, Loving	Michael Keaton, The Founder	Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals	Adam Driver, Paterson
Hanks has missed out the past few times he’s played the Oscar Game (Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies).  Sully won’t carry him, but he is the only one that could really surprise.  He is overdue for Oscar love and Sully did well enough to justify a nomination.	Edgerton has been around Oscar films before, but hasn’t been in serious contention.  Loving isn’t strong in any categories, but he is just as strong as anyone who could crack the top five.  Edgerton is right on the border of being due for an Oscar and just being a serviceable leading man.  Lacks the reputation of a Tom Hardy or Gosling to carry him.	Keaton has been doing an Oscar film each year for the past several years.  His lost for his comeback in Birdman and didn’t make the cut with Spotlight last year.  The Founder is much weaker than those two films, it is really only considered in this one category.  Keaton seems like he will have to wait a bit longer.	Gyllenhaal has been doing really strong work the past few years, but Oscar hasn’t bitten.  Nocturnal Animals is enough of a question mark where the Oscars could fall for it where other voting bodies haven’t.  It is most likely that Gyllenhaal will keep waiting for that second nomination.	Driver is making great career choices.  Paterson has the right critical response, but is just too small for him to get in on this category.  A few more of these roles and he will be nominated in the next few years though.
THE LONG SHOTS
Andrew Garfield, Silence	Chris Pine, Hell or High Water	Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply	Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead	Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Earlier in the year Garfield seemed more likely for this than Hacksaw Ridge, but Silence is not a strong contender in any category.  Garfield will get the nomination for Hacksaw, but this bolsters his Oscar credentials this year.	Hell or High Water is a strong contender, but Pine has not been in the conversation at all.  It won’t be strong enough to earn him a nomination, but it is the closest Pine has come to an Oscar film.	Beatty’s return was incredibly uneventful.  But his name still means something and Oscars have honored older actors in lesser performances before (Duvall in the Judge).  But Rules Don’t Apply will most likely be shut out.	Early, small contender.  Nowhere near strong enough.  But it has just as much chance as any of these other long shots at this point.	There have been a lot of boxing films in the past few years and Teller has done the physical transformation that voters respond to.  But if Gyllenhaal and Michael B. Jordan have been ignored for bigger boxing movies, Teller won’t make it in.  He is too divisive of a figure and nobody is really rooting for him as an up and comer for him to make the cut.