2016 Final Best Actor Predictions

Best actor is going to go to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.  He is a big part of why his film has a chance at winning Best Picture.  Denzel Washington in Fences is the only actor this year that could possibly surprise with a win.  But Affleck has been too consistent in the precursors, and Washington already has two Oscars.

The rest of the nominees are pretty set, but won't win.  The success of La La Land will finally land Ryan Gosling his second nomination.  Viggo Mortensen has been consistently nominated for Captain Fantastic.  Hacksaw Ridge should earn Andrew Garfield his first nomination.  Most of the other leading male performances have fallen out of the race or lack the strength to challenge these five.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actor:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea	Denzel Washington, Fences	Ryan Gosling, La La Land	Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic	Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Frontrunner who has been cleaning up in the precursors.  Affleck has another nomination to his credit.  His main obstacle are his personal controversies, but that has been mainly ignored.  Guessing that it won’t factor for voters.	A lock for a nomination, but doesn’t seem strong enough for his third Oscar.  Going to need a SAG win to seriously threaten Affleck, but there isn’t anybody else who could at this point.	Always loved by critics and the internet, but Gosling only has one Oscar nomination to his name.  Leading a frontrunner picture will secure him a nomination.  Although it isn’t deep enough to challenge Affleck and Washington.	Small film role from earlier in the year that has had some staying power in the precursors.  A SAG ensemble nomination for Captain Fantastic shows the strength in Viggo as a contender.  He will get a nomination, but isn’t up to win.	Garfield has been playing the Oscar game well after Amazing Spider-Man.  He missed before for Social Network.  In the past two years he has done 99 Homes, Silence and this.  He is serious about getting an Oscar nomination, and Hacksaw Ridge is just strong enough to get him one.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Tom Hanks, Sully	Joel Edgerton, Loving	Michael Keaton, The Founder	Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals	Adam Driver, Paterson
Hanks has missed out the past few times he’s played the Oscar Game (Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies).  Sully won’t carry him, but he is the only one that could really surprise.  He is overdue for Oscar love and Sully did well enough to justify a nomination.	Edgerton has been around Oscar films before, but hasn’t been in serious contention.  Loving isn’t strong in any categories, but he is just as strong as anyone who could crack the top five.  Edgerton is right on the border of being due for an Oscar and just being a serviceable leading man.  Lacks the reputation of a Tom Hardy or Gosling to carry him.	Keaton has been doing an Oscar film each year for the past several years.  His lost for his comeback in Birdman and didn’t make the cut with Spotlight last year.  The Founder is much weaker than those two films, it is really only considered in this one category.  Keaton seems like he will have to wait a bit longer.	Gyllenhaal has been doing really strong work the past few years, but Oscar hasn’t bitten.  Nocturnal Animals is enough of a question mark where the Oscars could fall for it where other voting bodies haven’t.  It is most likely that Gyllenhaal will keep waiting for that second nomination.	Driver is making great career choices.  Paterson has the right critical response, but is just too small for him to get in on this category.  A few more of these roles and he will be nominated in the next few years though.
THE LONG SHOTS
Andrew Garfield, Silence	Chris Pine, Hell or High Water	Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply	Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead	Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Earlier in the year Garfield seemed more likely for this than Hacksaw Ridge, but Silence is not a strong contender in any category.  Garfield will get the nomination for Hacksaw, but this bolsters his Oscar credentials this year.	Hell or High Water is a strong contender, but Pine has not been in the conversation at all.  It won’t be strong enough to earn him a nomination, but it is the closest Pine has come to an Oscar film.	Beatty’s return was incredibly uneventful.  But his name still means something and Oscars have honored older actors in lesser performances before (Duvall in the Judge).  But Rules Don’t Apply will most likely be shut out.	Early, small contender.  Nowhere near strong enough.  But it has just as much chance as any of these other long shots at this point.	There have been a lot of boxing films in the past few years and Teller has done the physical transformation that voters respond to.  But if Gyllenhaal and Michael B. Jordan have been ignored for bigger boxing movies, Teller won’t make it in.  He is too divisive of a figure and nobody is really rooting for him as an up and comer for him to make the cut.

2016 Final Best Director Predictions

It is a race between Barry Jenkins for Moonlight and Damien Chazelle for La La Land.  As we've seen in three of the last four Oscars, a split between Best Director and Best Picture is possible (Argo/Ang Lee, 12 Years a Slave/Alfonso Cuaron, Spotlight, Alejandro Inarritu).  Either Jenkins or Chazelle will win, even if Manchester by the Sea ends up taking picture.  Going with my gut right now and predicting Barry Jenkins.

Manchester by the Sea is a strong enough contender to secure a slot for Kenneth Lonergan.  His film is more about the writing and acting than direction.  As he is primarily a writer, he needs to amass a larger body of film work or  develop distinct direction before he can win in this category.  Denis Villenevue is set for a nomination for Arrival.  He has been working a lot on quality projects, with the film's financial success he will receive a deserved first nomination.  The final slot will likely go to Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, who has been present in precursors and has a strong-enough film.  There is some room for surprises, this is a category where that has happened recently.

Here are my predictions and analysis for the Best Director race:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight	Damien Chazelle, La La Land	Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea	Denis Villeneuve, Arrival	Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
This award could go several ways.  As of right now I am predicting Barry Jenkins to win.  This is the strong new director that the Oscars will support.  A lock for a nomination for sure, but the win is not certain.  Going with my gut right now.	Seems neck and neck with Jenkins, Globes gave him a slight edge.  Chazelle has a previous Oscar nominated film which helps.  His film will get the nostalgic vote, unsure how many that will carry to wins.	Lonergan is a writer who has never been up for an Oscar as a director before.  The strength of his film will get him a nomination, but Manchester needs to take the frontrunner place for Lonergan be considered to win.	Villeneuve has been on his way to an Oscar and he has a much talked about critical and commercial hit this year that is assured an Best Picture nomination.  Arrival isn’t strong enough for Villeneuve to win, but he will get his first nomination.	Gibson has been nominated in a lot of precursors.  The fact that Hacksaw Ridge is up for Best Picture and Best Actor shows that Gibson may be done with his exile.  Also worth noting that other directors will vote for this award, not actors.  Controversial directors have been nominated and won before.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Denzel Washington, Fences	David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water	Martin Scorsese, Silence	Jeff Nichols, Loving	Clint Eastwood, Sully
Did a great job making Fences cinematic while still maintaining its theatrical aspects.  Washington directed a great ensemble, but he hasn’t been up for many precursors.  Directors of play adaptations aren’t always up for Oscars.  Director-actors haven’t been successful lately (Affleck couldn’t secure a nomination for Argo).	While not a frontrunner, this film is going to be up for several Oscars.  While the director hasn’t been seen in many precursors, this category can have surprises.  Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haeneke making it in 2012, Bennett Miller getting nominated while his film didn’t.  Mackenzie could ride the strength of Hell or High Water.	Scorsese is one of those directors who can get recognized for lesser work.  Silence has not been greatly received and is not up for many Oscars.  But the director’s respect for Scorsese and his passion for this project could come into play.	Nichols will get a nomination one of these days.  He is consistently making good films, but the Oscars have yet to truly embrace one.  If Loving gets a Best Picture nomination, Nichols could follow.	Eastwood can just be a sign of quality for some voters.  Sully did well enough financially that it isn’t out of the question entirely; he wasn’t in the conversation much before American Sniper’s nomination either.  But Eastwood has been divisive this year and his film lacks the passion of Sniper.
THE LONG SHOTS
Garth Davis, Lion	Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures	Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals	Mike Mills, 20th Century Women	Jon Favreau, The Jungle Book
Lion will most likely get a picture nomination, so Davis could get in with little precursor love (ala Zeitlin).  Not likely though.	Hidden Figures is a star vehicle, not a director’s vehicle.  It isn’t popular enough to reward a serviceable director.	Some voting bodies are responding to Nocturnal Animals.  Ford got a Globe nomination over better competition.  But it will be a real long shot at this point.	Mills has his fans and supporters, but the film is a real long shot in most categories.  He is not a serious threat.	Some pundits still bring up The Jungle Book as a contender.  I suppose that if Ang Lee could win for Life of Pi then it isn’t inconceivable.  Favreau has worked enough to deserve an Oscar moment.  But this mainstream fare won’t be it.

Best Actor Predictions (as of 12/13/12)

Best actor has certainly narrowed down.  Ben Affleck has not received any notice as an actor, I assumed he might make the cut because often times the actor/director is recognized for both roles if the direction is good enough (see Beatty or Costner).  Jamie Foxx seems tailor made to play Django and is a very likable actor but was left out of the Globes while Django was nominated for everything else.  Also his SNL monologue may have sealed his fate this Oscar season.  Hitchcock is out of the race for everything but Helen Mirren so Anthony Hopkins is out.

There are two potential spoilers.  One is veteran actor Richard Gere who just scored a Globe nomination.  Gere has often been cited as one of the better actors without any Oscar nomination (previously Gary Oldman was on that list).  However his movie is too small and he has not been rewarded elsewhere.  Despite the quality of his performance this will most likely not be his year.  However he could be a surprise on Oscar morning.

Then there is talked about Joaquin Phoenix, who could very well get a nomination for his critically acclaimed role in The Master.  However his disparaging comments towards Oscar season, the lack of a SAG nomination and lack of attention for his film make his nomination seem unlikely.  He would seem like this year's Ryan Gosling.  Beloved and protected by internet film fans, but unnoticed by anybody else.

The final five seem to be pretty set on Denzel Washington, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman and Daniel Day-Lewis.  Despite Flight's exit from the Oscar race Washington has been consistently nominated and is very well liked in Hollywood.  Hawkes has also been noticed in The Sessions.  However if Phoenix and Gere are making it in they are taking the spots of these two.

Bradley Cooper won the NBR, got a SAG nomination and could very well win a Golden Globe.  He has a slight chance of winning, it would be greater if his film was more widely seen.  Jackman could also win, especially if Les Mis does well across the board.  However both of these actors are fighting to be taken seriously as Oscar actors as they are more known for The Hangover and X-Men.

Which leaves Daniel Day-Lewis to win.  I initially did not expect him to win a third Oscar so soon, but he has won absolutely everything so far.  It seems heresy to no recognize two time Academy Award Winner as Steven Spielberg's Abraham Lincoln.  He is clearly the one to beat.  Cooper and Jackman are the ones who could, but I would not bet on it.  Day-Lewis is taking home his third Oscar unless something drastically changes.