Non-Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

I have not yet seen Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine, nor Julia Roberts in August: Osage County.  I thought that Jennifer Lawrence was fine in American Hustle, but not the eye-opening performance many found.  June Squibb was an absolute scene-stealer in the best way in Nebraska and earned a well deserved nomination.  Newcomer Lupita Nyong'o gave the best showing of the five with her difficult role in 12 Years a Slave.

Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
Melonie Diaz gave an incredibly impressive debut in Fruitvale Station.  She plays Oscar Grant's long suffering girlfriend.  And in the hands of Diaz this character certainly suffers, but she also loves and supports.  This is a smart character that is not just dependent on a man, Diaz gifts her with a lot of strength that is important later on in the movie.  Diaz has great chemistry with Michael B. Jordan and that incredibly expands the world of the lead character.  One of many performers that I really hope to see again soon.

Adepero Oduye, 12 Years a Slave

Crying on film is sometimes seen as cheap and manipulative.  It is certainly true that actors will cry for an Oscar, but there are still performers who can break down and make the audience feel.  I remember Adepero Oduye's character vividly, even with her limited screentime.  Oduye gives one of the most harrowing portrayals of a grieving mother that I have ever seen.  There is just something about the way she constantly cries after being separated from her child that is so tragic.  And then there is her standing up to Solomon Northrup for her feelings.  After being yelled at to stop crying she turns around and lashes out on the film's leading character.  It is one of the most powerful moments of an incredibly powerful film.

Margot Robbie, Wolf of Wall Street
There are certainly sex bomb roles that rely solely on sex appeal.  Girls are definitely cast just because they look pretty.  Then there is Margot Robbie who is portraying a very sexual role and forces you to acknowledge her acting.  Margot Robbie completely owns every scene she is in and is an intimidating force against the much more experienced Leonardo DiCaprio.  There is a fearlessness to her character and an intimidation that sticks with you.  This is the type of character that can affect the superficial Jordan Belfort.  Robbie in the role of a victim really has some incredible strength that is one of the most memorable things about the long film.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
She may be too young for the role and may not have much screen time, but you don't care because Octavia Spencer owns every second of screen time as Oscar Grant's mother.  One of the film's many highlights is a scene between an incarcerated Oscar Grant and his mother.  The scene is reliant on its two actors and Octavia Spencer gives a tour de force performance.  She shows love to her son, but she also shows disappointment.  There is something that sticks with you about Octavia Spencer's expressions in the jail.  There is so much emotion coming out of her small performance that fuels the rest of the movie.  Octavia Spencer helps the audience understand that Oscar Grant was a man with a mother who loved him and demanded better of him.  Which is of course so tragic that he lived up to that, but not for long enough.

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Early buzz was all around Oprah in this role.  She may have been overhyped, I remember seeing this with high expectations and not thinking that her performance was anything special.  But after looking back upon my two viewings this really was a great performance.  It was not a big, showy role but she supports the movie.  She completes the family that is made up of Forest Whitaker and David Oyelowo. She shows conflict in Whitaker's home life while maintaining the family's connection with Oyelowo.  Oprah really represents the home life and family aspects of the Civil Rights movement.  She shows a side that isn't fighting externally, but struggling with some very relatable performances.  Getting her to act again was great for this movie.

Other Great Supporting Performances:

Alison Brie (Kings of Summer), Evangeline Lilly (The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug), Jena Malone (The Hunger Game: Catching Fire), Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave), Alfre Woodard (12 Years a Slave)

Why They Weren't Nominated

Taking a look at the movies and people who missed out on nominations.  Not snubs per say, because this post is not about what should have been nominated or movies that I liked more than others.  This is just analyzing some contenders that had Oscar potential and missed out this year.

You can also check out my predictions from last week, I was pretty accurate only missing one or two nominations in m major category.

            

The big upsets for Best Picture were Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club.  Both were late releases and fresher in people's minds.  Philomena was just the type of good movie that people latched on to and supported, despite its lesser amount of box-office or precursor nominations.  Its screenplay most likely helped it out too.  Dallas Buyers Club has two very strong acting nominations which brought it quite a bit of attention.  Its screenplay and editing nomination shows that it was a movie that hit with voters.  Probably a combination of release date, star power, being related to a real issue and campaigning.

The big exclusion was Saving Mr. Banks.  A lot of that may be Disney's inexperience in campaigning, very few movies from Disney or Touchstone have ever received a best picture nomination.  This also did not have a strong enough reception, it is doubtful that many voters placed it at number one.  The lack of a directing contender hurt it too.  But also, as evidenced by Meryl Streep's accusations against Walt Disney last week, Walt is a polarizing figure that people easily latch onto inaccurate rumors about.  The movie did not convince people of the truth and that definitely had a factor in it missing out on best picture, actress, supporting actor, original screenplay and editing.

I probably overestimated Fruitvale Station's chances, but it seemed like the most likely early release.  Early releases did not do well this year, which may be do to none of them receiving astonishing reviews or box-office and the Oscar season being exceptionally strong.  The movie just got forgotten about.  As did The Butler, which had all of the right ingredients for the Oscars but there was enough persistent controversy to keep it down and it may have been released too early.  Also the awkward official title may have something to do with it.  I am still placing the blame for the general absence of Inside Llewyn Davis on CBS Films as a weak, inexperienced distributor.  The movie was also very small among a year of very big films and it just did not stand out enough.

       

My directing predictions were spot on.  Her was not strong enough to get Spike Jonze attention for his direction.  Paul Greengrass certainly had a decent chance after his DGA nomination, but Captain Phillips was not as strong of a contender as many felt.  Ryan Coogler, Lee Daniels and others were not getting in without best picture nominations.

Leonardo DiCaprio made it in, showing that Wolf of Wall Street is a stronger contender this year.  He has been considered snubbed before, which helps.  This is also a career best performance, his role in Great Gatsby helped bring him more attention this year too.  Also Christian Bale was able to ride the hype of American Hustle to a nomination.  His weight gain probably helped.  Both of these performances are broader and flashier than many of the more understated snubs, they were probably just easier to recognize.

The big exclusion was Robert Redford, which was a possibility after missing with SAG.  His film was too small and for whatever reason he has never done well with acting at the Oscars.  Bruce Dern most likely took his veteran slot.  Captain Phillips must have not had enough support, because it missed out in this category too.  The earlier release and potential vote splits with Saving Mr. Banks cost Tom Hanks here.  With The Butler not doing well with voters Forest Whitaker missed out, even with a SAG nomination.  This was a year for established players leaving Michael B. Jordan and Oscar Isaac without much of a chance.  Joaquin Phoenix just did not receive enough attention for Her to be a major contender.

    

This category was always focused on six actresses.  There was little room for other actresses, most notably Adele Exarchopoulos, Brie Larson and Julie Delpy.  Many pundits had left off Amy Adams, but she is too well liked and had too flashy of a role in one of the year's biggest contenders.  I expected that after Meryl Streep won a third Oscar and August: Osage County was poorly received that she would be the one left out.  But the actress is absolutely revered and she had a showy role in an Oscar type movie.  Voters seem to just default to her.

The big snub was Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks.  She is much less popular of an actress than the other nominees which probably factored.  Also her character may have just come across as too unlikable.  But the movie's lack of nominations shows that it just did not work for voters, because it did not get any notable awards and that unfortunately hurt her chances.

               

This was the toughest category to figure out as Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender were the only sure things.  But the voter's love of American Hustle and the likability of Bradley Cooper earned him a nomination many did not think he would receive.  Barkhad Abdi was an unknown actor that just had the right movie and role for him to breakthrough with awards attention.  The amount of fairly consistent precursor nomination most likely put him on voter's radar and definitely paid off for him.  The big surprise however was Jonah Hill who rode the apparent good will for Wolf of Wall Street and has been making good enough career choices to be nominated a second time.

Daniel Bruhl received key precursor notice, but Rush did not and the movie was pretty much shut out. Again, Saving Mr. Banks did not click with voters and Tom Hanks was never the major contender many though he would be for this role.  Posthumous nominations are rare and Enough Said did not get on the voter's radar enough for James Gandolfini to get a nomination.  The buzz about Nebraska being focused on Bruce Dern seems to have harmed Will Forte.  His performance was likely too subtle for this category and he just never quite clicked with precursors for whatever reason.

            

Sally Hawkins was a surprise for Blue Jasmine, which the movie must have been received well enough because she got in in addition to the screenplay.  Jennifer Lawrence was not a sure thing, but American Hustle is just that strong of a nominee to carry four of its actors.  Her career and popularity and buzz about this being a scene stealing revelation also helped.  June Squibb stood out enough as a memorable character in Nebraska.  Julia Roberts and Lupita Nyong'o were locks.

But Oprah was also a lock.  The only main precursor she really missed was the Globes, which is not the most accurate predictor.  It is She may have peaked too early and her return to the screen just ended up being forgotten.  This is the oddest omission, because it is difficult to figure out why she was not nominated.  There must have just been a problem with campaigning The Butler, because the Oscars shut it out.  Also shut out is Fruitvale Station.  Octavia Spencer had too small of a role in a forgotten film and her precursor season did not go far past her National Board of Review win.

Frozen and The Wind Rises were locks and are the two contenders to win animated feature.  The Croods made enough money and was good enough to get a nomination.  Ernest and Celestine played well with the animation industry and GKids has been very good at campaigning small foreign, hand drawn films.  The type of movies that the Oscars should help out.  The surprise animated feature nominee was Despicable Me 2, the first nomination for Illumination Animation.  The incredible box-office most likely was the main factor, but there is a chance that voters are obsessed with irritating little yellow idiots that speak oddly like everyone else seems to be.

The movie that was shockingly left out was Monsters University.  Pixar missed out for Cars 2, but that movie was not good.  The expectation for this to be bad probably factored into it.  People seem to have a backlash for Pixar doing sequels (or in this case prequels) and expect them to be bad.  They were most likely not viewing Monsters as its own movie, but did not like it because it did not feel like a Pixar movie.  However reception was not overly incredible and the movie has not been for everyone.

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

            

This category is centered on six main contenders and has very little room for surprises.  Amy Adams is a staple in this category and has been well received in Her, but her main campaign will be in lead for American Hustle.  A SAG nomination for best ensemble keeps Jennifer Garner in very slight contention, but her nomination is extremely unlikely and dependent on a Dallas Buyers Club receiving a Best Picture nomination.  Lea Seydoux has received minor notice for Blue is the Warmest Color, but the focus has been mainly on her co-star and a foreign language performance is not likely here.  Margo Martindale began the year as a potential frontrunner for August: Osage County, but that did not go anywhere.  Every year pundits always seem to overpredict Carey Mulligan, who was well received in Inside Llewyn Davis but that has not translated to precursors.  If Fruitvale Station hits with voters then Melonie Diaz could surprise, but that is an extremely slim chance.  Margot Robbie gave a very strong debut in Wolf of Wall Street, but the controversy of that movie will keep her from a surprise nomination.

    

Sarah Paulson was a strong contender before precursor season, where she has been missing out.  She has the advantage of 12 Years a Slave being a frontrunner, but the disadvantage of competing with a more popular co-star.  Traditionally this is the category where Woody Allen films do well.  Sally Hawkins received a Globe nomination and has been considered to be snubbed by some for previous work.  If anyone surprises out of the main predicted six, I am guessing it is one of these two.

             

Octavia Spencer is a recent winner who received a NBR award, but she has missed out on SAG and the Globes.  Fruitvale Station is not as popular as her competitors' and her role is somewhat small for this category.  However there is a possibility that voters will reward the film by nominating her if they don't nominate the film.  Jennifer Lawrence is the current it-girl that won last year.  She is very popular, well-liked and has a type of role that does well in this category.  There is some backlash towards her and her win last year, which could hurt her campaign for American Hustle.   June Squibb surprised in Nebraska and was a stand-out in it.  This category does not always reward older actresses, but she has been consistent in the precursors.  These are the three competing for the final two slots.

    

Julia Roberts has been consistent in precursors to consider her a lock.  However a win is not expected as August: Osage County has not been all that well received, she is playing too much against type for some and her career has been in poor shape.  Despite missing a Globe nomination Oprah Winfrey is a lock for The Butler.  She is a powerful figurehead who received a majority of the movie's acclaim.  It seems that she earned frontrunner status too early in the race for her to win.  The newcomer Lupita Nyong'o seems as if she will win for 12 Years a Slave.  At this point in the race this is the only really undisputed winner in any major category.

Predicted Five:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (winner)
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Runner-Ups: Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)