Best Actor Predictions

          

Best actor features a lot of strong contenders, this is tougher to figure out.  Lone Survivor is a late release that could surprise but it is doubtful if Mark Wahlberg could pull off a leading nomination here  if he couldn't in a weak 2010 with The Fighter.  Before Midnight was received well enough to hang on to Ethan Hawke as a potential surprise, but he will most likely be forgotten this year.  Idris Elba got a Globe nomination for Mandela: A Long to Freedom, but an Oscar nomination for this weakly received film is unlikely.  However a nomination for him could be seen an acknowledgement for the late Nelson Mandela by some.  The well liked Hugh Jackman, who had his first nomination last year, was well received in Prisoners but that film looks to miss out on the Oscars altogether.

            

The up and coming Oscar Isaac has his best role for Inside Llewyn Davis, the year is too crowded with veterans for him this year.  Christian Bale underwent a physical change and leads a strong ensemble for American Hustle, but little buzz seems to be about the former Oscar winner.  Joaquin Phoenix surprised with a nomination last year and has been received well in this role, but he has not performed well in the precursors.  Michael B. Jordan is still being brought up for his strong work in Fruitvale Station.  However the precursors have shown a preference to more experienced actors this year.  Jordan may be too young and new for this batch.  People tend to over predict Leonardo DiCaprio's Oscar chances as he has only been nominated three times and was never a serious contender to win any of them.  The divisive response to Wolf of Wall Street could help or hurt him.

                

Forest Whitaker has not been doing the best in the precursors, but he did get a SAG nomination.  This is the type of role and prestige of performer that voters usually notice.  The Butler seems right up the Oscar's alley and I would not count him out just yet.  He is the most likely surprise in this category.  Tom Hanks has done better in the precursors for Captain Phillips than in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.  With the film doing will in all the guilds he could is a strong contender.  I am only ranking Robert Redford below a lock because he missed a SAG nomination and All is Lost was too small of a release.  Still, this performance has been perfectly reviewed and the film icon has only received one acting nomination in his revered career.

                    

After a strong two years the now respected Matthew McConaughey is finally a lock for a nomination in Dallas Buyers Club.  His weight gain has been well documented and the role has been well received.  Veteran Bruce Dern has been doing extraordinary at the precursors, there is no way he is not a major contender for a win with the well-liked Nebraska.  Chiwetel Ejiofor leads the difficult and much discussed 12 Years a Slave, he is the one the audience gets to feel for.  There is a definite emotional connection to this character in addition to respect for the performance.  Ejiofor and Dern are my predictions for wins, but the performances are much more subtle which is different than the large, over the top characters that often win in this category which may give McConaughey an edge.

Predicted Five:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Runner-Ups: Forest Whitaker (The Butler)

Best Actor Predictions

The Predicted Five

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers' Club
Pros: Career has enough momentum to carry him to a win and Oscars love a comeback story.  He has gained a lot of respect and people really seem to want to work with him.  His weight loss for the part has been well documented.  A great role that touches on themes of homophobia and the healthcare system.
Cons: Many will still hold his previous career choices against him.  This movie may not be up for too much outside of acting categories, best actor winners are often in best picture nominees.

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Pros: Been receiving rave reviews along with the movie which is considered the best picture frontrunner.  Ejiofor has been a very dependable actor for years that has just needed the right movie to bring him to the Oscars.

Cons: Competitive category, will definitely get a nomination but has to compete with McConaughey and Redford for the win.

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Pros: The movie has been receiving great reviews and word of mouth with most of the buzz surrounding Redford.  Redford is not just a veteran he is a legend and an icon.  He has also only received one acting nomination.  His revered status and likability along with the strength of his difficult one man performance should easily carry him to a second nomination and potential win.

Cons: The movie may not play well outside of critics and could be overshadowed by flashier productions.  Redford may have to compete with Bruce Dern for one veteran slot.  

Forest Whitaker, The Butler

Pros: A well respected, prolific actor and recent winner who led one of the breakout films of the year.  The positive reviews and incredible box-office should keep this movie as a major contender.  As the focal point among a large cast Whitaker should be easy to notice for his decades spanning role.

Cons: It is an early release and Whitaker has not been up for an Oscar since his win in 2006.  Some have found the movie to be too lightweight or have focused on specific inaccuracies.  Much of the buzz is around Oprah.

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Pros: Veteran actor who has only received one nomination.  Won this year's top prize at Cannes.  Alexander Payne has led several actors to nominations.

Cons: Competitive year and is not as large of a name as his many competitors.    The movie may be too small to be a major Oscar contender.

Runner-Ups

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Pros: Film has had good box office and better reviews, with the likable actor receiving most of the buzz.  Hanks is having a comeback year with this and the upcoming Saving Mr. Banks.  Playing a real life figure in recent history will help get him back in the Oscar game.

Cons: Hanks has not been up for an Oscar since 2007 and has not been nominated since 2000.  Greengrass movies get less attention for its actors.  Hanks will probably stand a better chance in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.

Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Pros: Received a nomination last year despite missing out on several important precursors.  Seems to disappear into this character that seems very relatable to modern technology based society.  Spike Jonze works well with actors.

Cons: Movie may be too unconventional for traditional voters.  May relate better with an internet fan base than actual Oscar voters.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

Pros: The kind of breakthrough role that is difficult to ignore.  Completely carries this difficult movie.  Jordan is very likable and delivers a memorable performance that balances humor and tragedy.  One of the best performances of the year, an up and coming actor.

Cons: Early release date, not as well known yet.  Needs precursor notice and the film to be a best picture contender to make it into the race.

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

Pros: Been an up and coming actor for a while now who finally has his big Oscar role.  Great word of mouth for this performance and the movies.  The status that the Coen Brothers hold in the industry should help him out.

Cons: Seems to be a very underrated performance which is harder for voters to recognize.  Acting does not always get noticed in Coen Brothers movies.  Still not sure if the movie itself will do well with voters in general.

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Pros: Recent winner reteaming with a popular, current director.  Goes through an appearance change.  Gets a big commanding role in a movie that should be a major best picture contender.

Cons: Actors making themselves appear ugly does not work as well as it does with actresses.  Won recently, could be overshadowed by his incredible supporting cast.  A lot of competition.  Movie has not been seen yet.

Also in Contention

The only other actor I can see being a potential contender is the well liked Idris Elba for Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom.  However the film has little buzz and may be too small to gain Oscar attention.  If Wolf of Wall Street ends up being released this year then Leonardo DiCaprio could gain some traction.  However moving the release date has hurt the film's momentum and DiCaprio is not the lock his fans often want to believe he is.  The popular Hugh Jackman has been said to have given his best performance for Prisoners.  Ethan Hawke could join the race if Before Midnight is up for best picture. Despite poor reviews for Secret Life of Walter Mitty at New York Film Festival Ben Stiller may still be in the race if the movie is popular with audiences.

Best Actor Predictions 7/3/13

We are no about half way through the year and the Oscar race is shaping up.  My predictions have not changed too much from earlier in the year, but I have seen a few trailers and reviews.

Of note this year is that no early releases have really caught on.  But the year looks to get a lot better prestige-wise.

The Top-5

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Pros: The career shift of Matthew McConaughey in the past few years has been astonishing.  Last year he was an Oscar contender for his role in Magic Mike and received a lot of acclaim for several indie films.  This year he continues his impressive streak with Mud sitting at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and an HBO series and movies with Martin Scorsese and Christopher Nolan on the way.  But his best shot at Oscar gold is this movie where he pulls the awards-bait weight loss.  The subject matter is difficult and should allow him to surprise audiences.  His career is in the perfect place for Oscar gold, he could be this year's Ben Affleck.

Cons: A lot is dependent of the quality of the movie, which does not even have a trailer yet.  The movie does not seem to have much buzz outside of McConaughey, best actor winners are often actors in best picture nominees.  McConaughey may receive some vote splits with Mud or get more focus as a supporting actor in Wolf of Wall Street.

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Pros: Ejiofor has been a reliable actor for many years but has not had an Oscar bait role yet.  With slavery being one of the main issues of last year's Oscars in Django Unchained and Lincoln, a movie about slavery in America focusing on a slave should hit with voters.  Director Steve McQueen gets great performances from his actors and he should work well with Ejiofor.  This is going to be a difficult film to watch, but if Ejiofor carries it as well as I think he will he should be a frontrunner.
Cons: He has had a great career, but is not a big name.  Also slavery told form the perspective of a black man, rather than a popular white one may be a tougher sell.  Hard to say how this movie will go, definitely a risk.  But I do see Ejiofor being a contender.

Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Pros: Walt won more Oscars than anyone else, how could voters resist rewarding him with a 60th Oscar (although the Oscar would go to Hanks as his third).  Hanks is working his way back to a reliable Oscar contender again having taken a risk in Cloud Atlas (which even though it was not a hit with AMPAS or audiences was a risk) and starring in this year's Captain Phillips.  Hollywood and audiences see both Tom Hanks and Walt Disney in a similar light, Hanks playing Disney should work.
Cons: Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis just received their third Oscars, Hanks may have to wait a while.  There is a chance that he may be a bigger contender for Captain Phillips which could lead to vote splits.  Also a possibility that this role goes supporting.

Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Pros: After his win in 2006 Whitaker has not been in too many hit movies, however he is starting to act more and has a producers credit this year on Fruitvale Station.  This role is pretty big Oscar bait, even though the trailer underwhelmed it is a role that should be perfect for Whitaker.  With so many big actors in the movie the Academy may want to award one.
Cons: Lee Daniels' Paperboy last year was a disappointment, The Butler needs to be good for Whitaker to stand out among this competitive category.

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Pros: The veteran actor took the top prize at Cannes.  Alexander Payne works great with actors and he put a lot into this script, should be a perfect combination of actor, director and script.
Cons: Dern is not that well known and has not had a good role in a long time.  I have also seen Dern rumored to go supporting and Forte lead, suppose they both could go lead or supporting.

Runners-Up

Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
Pros: Fassbender has been on his way to an Oscar for the past several years.  With this lead role and a supporting role in 12 Years a Slave he should have enough momentum to get his first nomination.
Cons: Ridley Scott movies have not been a big hit with the Academy in a while and Fassbender seems like more of a sure thing for 12 Years.  Leading actor is very competitive at this stage in the race, Fassbender may get left out again.

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Pros: Despite this year's critical and commercial failure of Incredible Burt Wonderstone, Carell has been a very dependable actor.  Turning in great performances in movies such as Little Miss Sunshine and Crazy Stupid Love.  This is a very difficult role that should play to the actor's strengths while showing him in a new light to audiences.  Being directed by Bennett Miller who got his actors nominations in both Capote and Moneyball definitely helps.  Also with Carell reprising his breakout role of Brick Tamland in Anchorman 2 which is released around Oscar season he should be popular celebrity.
Cons: Comedic actors are not always recognized for drama.  Audiences may not want to see Michael Scott as a killer.  Could be overshadowed by Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum.

Robert Redford, All is Lost
Pros: Buzz is high for Redford right now.  This movie came out of nowhere and many pundits are anticipating it to do well.  There is no dialogue or other actors, just Redford on his own, definite similarities to Cast Away.  With much having been written about Redford joining Captain America: Winter Soldier there may be enough good will for the Hollywood legend to make a comeback.
Cons: May be a small release.  In his esteemed career Redford has only received one acting nomination (1973's The Sting).  Dern may get the veteran slot.

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Pros: Up and coming actor who gave a great performance in last year's Chronicle and is strongly rumored for the reboot of Fantastic Four.  This movie was a hit at Sundance and much has been written about the young actor.  This is a star making role and I expect to see a few accolades from it.
Cons: He is still pretty much an unknown in a category full of established stars.  The movie may not make as big of a splash as people are expecting.

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Pros: Isaac has been a very consistent actor for years in movies such as Nativity Story, Drive and Bourne Legacy.  Working with the Coens is a definite boon to his budding career.
Cons: Performance looks to be very understated, which does not always lead to awards.  The movie is released fairly early by CBS Films, which is a studio that does not have experience in campaigning.

Also in Contention
Christian Bale (American Hustle), Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Michael Pena (Chavez), George Clooney (Monuments Men), Joaquin Phoenix (Her)