I love analyzing the box-office. Even though I am not good with numbers it is fun to predict and seeing what fails and what succeeds. I took a look at the movies coming up this year and figured out what has the best chance at being the 50 highest grossing movies of 2014. Of course there are always surprises. There will be indie movies and Oscar bait films released that I am unaware of and most likely horror movies that will surprise. But these are the fifty with the best shot. These are all domestic estimates.
Showing posts with label 2014 Box-Office Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 Box-Office Predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
2014 Box-Office Predictions (Over $200 million)
10. Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount, 6/27)- $200 million
The last two Transformers passed $300 million, but as The Hobbit, X-Men and Pirates of the Caribbean has shown continuing a series after a trilogy can feature a pretty large drop. Starring Mark Wahlberg should help this to stay in the public's eye, but there has been little marketing so far and audiences tend to move on quickly. This series does have its strong fan base, but I think there is enough competition to keep this from doing too incredibly.
The last two Transformers passed $300 million, but as The Hobbit, X-Men and Pirates of the Caribbean has shown continuing a series after a trilogy can feature a pretty large drop. Starring Mark Wahlberg should help this to stay in the public's eye, but there has been little marketing so far and audiences tend to move on quickly. This series does have its strong fan base, but I think there is enough competition to keep this from doing too incredibly.
9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Disney, 4/4)- $215 million
Last year's two sequels have done better than the originals. This should be around Thor: Dark World's total. Captain America: The First Avenger was Marvel's second lowest grossing film, but after The Avengers and raising the stakes in this film this should do significantly better. The early release should help it from getting swallowed up and this definitely feels more like The Avengers than last year's movies.
Last year's two sequels have done better than the originals. This should be around Thor: Dark World's total. Captain America: The First Avenger was Marvel's second lowest grossing film, but after The Avengers and raising the stakes in this film this should do significantly better. The early release should help it from getting swallowed up and this definitely feels more like The Avengers than last year's movies.
8. Big Hero 6 (Disney, 11/7)- $220 million
Will not reach Frozen's totals, but the combination of the Marvel and Disney brands should make this one of the highest grossing animated features of the year. Should do a little better than Wreck-It Ralph. Disney has a good hold on November. Still need to see the characters and the voice cast, but Disney is definitely putting a lot into this one.
Will not reach Frozen's totals, but the combination of the Marvel and Disney brands should make this one of the highest grossing animated features of the year. Should do a little better than Wreck-It Ralph. Disney has a good hold on November. Still need to see the characters and the voice cast, but Disney is definitely putting a lot into this one.
7. The Hobbit: There and Back Again (WB, 12/17)- $260 million
Harry Potter and Twilight had a box-office bump in their final installments and this trend should continue with the final Lord of the Rings. After Desolation of Smaug not doing as incredible as previous Lord of the Rings movies this will not cross $300 million. The cliffhanger ending of Smaug will either bring people back or make this less accessible. It will make money, but still underperforming by the standards of this franchise.
Harry Potter and Twilight had a box-office bump in their final installments and this trend should continue with the final Lord of the Rings. After Desolation of Smaug not doing as incredible as previous Lord of the Rings movies this will not cross $300 million. The cliffhanger ending of Smaug will either bring people back or make this less accessible. It will make money, but still underperforming by the standards of this franchise.
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Columbia, 5/2)- $270 million
Sony got a hold of the weekend Marvel Cinematic Universe usually dominates. Amazing Spider-Man did well, but not as well as the previous Spider-Man series. However the trailer has been well received, even though the new villains are not all that popular. Spidey remains a dependable character and he will do well, but probably only a bit better than the previous movie unless this is really good. It will bring in a lot of people for opening weekend, but it will need to bring them back.
Sony got a hold of the weekend Marvel Cinematic Universe usually dominates. Amazing Spider-Man did well, but not as well as the previous Spider-Man series. However the trailer has been well received, even though the new villains are not all that popular. Spidey remains a dependable character and he will do well, but probably only a bit better than the previous movie unless this is really good. It will bring in a lot of people for opening weekend, but it will need to bring them back.
5. Interstellar (Paramount, 11/7)- $275 million
I may be overestimating this, but this is Christopher Nolan's follow-up to the Dark Knight trilogy. This has an impressive cast that is headlined by the popular Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway. The November release could mean Oscar potential. Right now I am estimating between that it will make somewhere between the totals of Gravity and Inception. There is still a market for original sci-fi if they are really good.
I may be overestimating this, but this is Christopher Nolan's follow-up to the Dark Knight trilogy. This has an impressive cast that is headlined by the popular Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway. The November release could mean Oscar potential. Right now I am estimating between that it will make somewhere between the totals of Gravity and Inception. There is still a market for original sci-fi if they are really good.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Fox, 5/23)- $290 million
This is another tough one to judge. There is a lot of hype and marketing in this. The stakes are incredibly raised, but the X-Men movies have made less each film released since 2006. Featuring Jennifer Lawrence post-Hunger Games should help its total in addition to combining the casts. This has people excited, but it needs to live up to the excitement. If it disappoints it may gross a bit lower. But Fox is calculating this one pretty well. They will make it a hit, just not sure how much of one.
This is another tough one to judge. There is a lot of hype and marketing in this. The stakes are incredibly raised, but the X-Men movies have made less each film released since 2006. Featuring Jennifer Lawrence post-Hunger Games should help its total in addition to combining the casts. This has people excited, but it needs to live up to the excitement. If it disappoints it may gross a bit lower. But Fox is calculating this one pretty well. They will make it a hit, just not sure how much of one.
3. How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Fox, 6/13)- $325 million
The original How to Train Your Dragon was a huge critical and commercial hit. A big part of that was that it used 3D really well and followed Avatar. But Dreamworks has been keeping the franchise in the public's eye with a TV series and holiday specials. The stakes are raised in this one and the characters have grown. If it is impressive enough in its visuals and storytelling people will keep coming back. However I am potentially misjudging this as the audience could skew too much older and this is a lot to predict for an animated movie that isn't a stupid comedy. Despicable Me 2 did incredible because of the Minions, this lacks that simple attraction.
The original How to Train Your Dragon was a huge critical and commercial hit. A big part of that was that it used 3D really well and followed Avatar. But Dreamworks has been keeping the franchise in the public's eye with a TV series and holiday specials. The stakes are raised in this one and the characters have grown. If it is impressive enough in its visuals and storytelling people will keep coming back. However I am potentially misjudging this as the audience could skew too much older and this is a lot to predict for an animated movie that isn't a stupid comedy. Despicable Me 2 did incredible because of the Minions, this lacks that simple attraction.
2. Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney, 8/1)- $350 million
I am playing a hunch on this because there is really nothing to compare it too. But Marvel is clearly being very careful and intentional with this one. This is following Gravity as a successful space movie and is a Marvel movie that raises the stakes from The Avengers. Disney will not only use this as the lead in for Avengers: Age of Ultron but also Star Wars Episode VII. They will be able to turn Rocket Raccoon and Groot in to marketable characters. The August release worries me, as I am predicting well above Rise of the Planet of the Apes numbers. But the hype is high and Marvel seems to be extremely confident in this.
I am playing a hunch on this because there is really nothing to compare it too. But Marvel is clearly being very careful and intentional with this one. This is following Gravity as a successful space movie and is a Marvel movie that raises the stakes from The Avengers. Disney will not only use this as the lead in for Avengers: Age of Ultron but also Star Wars Episode VII. They will be able to turn Rocket Raccoon and Groot in to marketable characters. The August release worries me, as I am predicting well above Rise of the Planet of the Apes numbers. But the hype is high and Marvel seems to be extremely confident in this.
1. Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (Lionsgate, 11/21)- $430 million
Easily going to be the highest grossing movie of the year. Catching Fire just passed Iron Man 3 domestically. People loved it and have went back to see it several times. That movie ended on a huge cliffhanger and a promised of stakes being raised. People love the books and these movies have turned out incredibly. I may be underestimating this total, but it will be an incredible sum.
Easily going to be the highest grossing movie of the year. Catching Fire just passed Iron Man 3 domestically. People loved it and have went back to see it several times. That movie ended on a huge cliffhanger and a promised of stakes being raised. People love the books and these movies have turned out incredibly. I may be underestimating this total, but it will be an incredible sum.
2014 Box-Office Predictions ($120-$195)
20. Horrible Bosses 2 (WB, 11/14)- $120 million
The first Horrible Bosses was a surprise hit. Since then both Jason Bateman and Jason Sudeikis headlined two of last year's biggest comedies. These are likable stars with an impressive supporting cast of Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Spacey, Jamie Foxx, Chris Pine and Christoph Waltz. If this movie is just as funny audiences will be back. But this is being released in November, not traditionally the best month for comedies. I expect it to do close to the same amount of business as the first.
The first Horrible Bosses was a surprise hit. Since then both Jason Bateman and Jason Sudeikis headlined two of last year's biggest comedies. These are likable stars with an impressive supporting cast of Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Spacey, Jamie Foxx, Chris Pine and Christoph Waltz. If this movie is just as funny audiences will be back. But this is being released in November, not traditionally the best month for comedies. I expect it to do close to the same amount of business as the first.
19. Home (Fox, 11/26)- $125 million
Dreamworks movies have not done as well in the last quarter of the year (Megamind, Puss in Boots and Rise of the Guardians). Little has been seen from this movie yet, but from the premise and designs it seems like it might be on the low end for Dreamworks. Home seems to be closer to Turbo than Frozen as far as one word titles go. Need to see more about this, but based on the premise and designs it does not seem like this will be the biggest animated hit. But it could surprise if it is an impressive enough spectacle or has a memetic catchphrase characters for the trailers. Will make money though, just not by ridiculous animation standards.
Dreamworks movies have not done as well in the last quarter of the year (Megamind, Puss in Boots and Rise of the Guardians). Little has been seen from this movie yet, but from the premise and designs it seems like it might be on the low end for Dreamworks. Home seems to be closer to Turbo than Frozen as far as one word titles go. Need to see more about this, but based on the premise and designs it does not seem like this will be the biggest animated hit. But it could surprise if it is an impressive enough spectacle or has a memetic catchphrase characters for the trailers. Will make money though, just not by ridiculous animation standards.
18. 22 Jump Street (Columbia, 6/13)- $135 million
21 Jump Street was an incredible surprise and it looks like this sequel will keep what worked while changing the stakes. Hill and Tatum have incredible chemistry and both can bring in a crowd in the right role. Moving to summer could help or hurt the box-office totals, but it depends if this is as funny as the first.
21 Jump Street was an incredible surprise and it looks like this sequel will keep what worked while changing the stakes. Hill and Tatum have incredible chemistry and both can bring in a crowd in the right role. Moving to summer could help or hurt the box-office totals, but it depends if this is as funny as the first.
17. Into the Woods (Disney, 12/25)- $140 million
Released the same date as Les Miserables, from the director of Chicago, features stars from Pitch Perfect, Mamma Mia and Sweeney Todd. This has all the ingredients to be a big musical hit. This is a critical success on stage and has definite awards potential. The only factor is Annie being a huge hit, but this definitely seems to have the bigger box-office potential. Should be an impressive late in the year debut.
Released the same date as Les Miserables, from the director of Chicago, features stars from Pitch Perfect, Mamma Mia and Sweeney Todd. This has all the ingredients to be a big musical hit. This is a critical success on stage and has definite awards potential. The only factor is Annie being a huge hit, but this definitely seems to have the bigger box-office potential. Should be an impressive late in the year debut.
16. The Lego Movie (WB, 2/7)- $140 million
The Lego franchise has gained popularity in recent years on television, Netflix, video games and in toy aisles. The movie trailer has gotten adults nostalgic and there is a lot of merchandise to attract children. This also features several DC Comics characters which will bring attention. It should be a big early release. Has the potential to bring in Lorax or Croods numbers, but needs to really be a big hit with families for that.
The Lego franchise has gained popularity in recent years on television, Netflix, video games and in toy aisles. The movie trailer has gotten adults nostalgic and there is a lot of merchandise to attract children. This also features several DC Comics characters which will bring attention. It should be a big early release. Has the potential to bring in Lorax or Croods numbers, but needs to really be a big hit with families for that.
15. Godzilla (WB, 5/16)- $150 million
The trailer has an incredibly positive response and the internet is definitely hyping the movie. However monster movies have never done too well. Pacific Rim notably underperformed last summer and Cloverfield was not a runaway hit. There is a lack of bankable stars and an emphasis on action, lacking the levity of Transformers. The hype of this movie and familiarity with the character should help this to perform above Pacific Rim, this is being marketed well. But it will need its fan base to support it for it to be a bigger hit. I may be overestimating its chances now.
The trailer has an incredibly positive response and the internet is definitely hyping the movie. However monster movies have never done too well. Pacific Rim notably underperformed last summer and Cloverfield was not a runaway hit. There is a lack of bankable stars and an emphasis on action, lacking the levity of Transformers. The hype of this movie and familiarity with the character should help this to perform above Pacific Rim, this is being marketed well. But it will need its fan base to support it for it to be a bigger hit. I may be overestimating its chances now.
14. Tammy (WB, 7/4)- $150 million
Melissa McCarthy had a very good year last year with Identity Thief and The Heat. She co-wrote this comedy, her husband is directing it and it features recognizable stars Susan Sarandon, Allison Janney and Kathy Bates. She certainly has a fan base and if this is funny enough it should be one of the bigger comedies of the year.
Melissa McCarthy had a very good year last year with Identity Thief and The Heat. She co-wrote this comedy, her husband is directing it and it features recognizable stars Susan Sarandon, Allison Janney and Kathy Bates. She certainly has a fan base and if this is funny enough it should be one of the bigger comedies of the year.
13. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (Fox, 7/11)- $180 million
Rise of the Planet of the Apes was a surprise success and this movie is the natural progression and raises the stakes. It should do a little better than the first, but it will really need to hit with viewers to be much better. There is a lot of competition with more familiar franchises, but this could still surprise. However Gary Oldman is the only new notable addition and the first trailer was not the most impressive. Still need to see how well this gets marketed.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes was a surprise success and this movie is the natural progression and raises the stakes. It should do a little better than the first, but it will really need to hit with viewers to be much better. There is a lot of competition with more familiar franchises, but this could still surprise. However Gary Oldman is the only new notable addition and the first trailer was not the most impressive. Still need to see how well this gets marketed.
12. Mr. Peabody and Sherman (Fox, 3/7)- $190 million
Although the original Rocky and Bullwinkle segment has not maintained popularity it is a concept that would work great on film. This looks like Dreamworks has found a balance between audience pleasing comedy and spectacle. Should be close to The Croods from last year, if it is real good it stands a chance at crossing $200 million.
Although the original Rocky and Bullwinkle segment has not maintained popularity it is a concept that would work great on film. This looks like Dreamworks has found a balance between audience pleasing comedy and spectacle. Should be close to The Croods from last year, if it is real good it stands a chance at crossing $200 million.
11. A Million Ways to Die in the West (Universal, 5/30)- $195 million
Seth MacFarlane's debut of Ted was an incredible success, crossing over $200 million domestically. This movie looks to feature the same type of goofy humor in a unique setting. Of course westerns are risky after Cowboys & Aliens and The Lone Ranger, but this will be marketed as a comedy. Should do a little less than Ted, as it will not have the ability to make pop culture references as easily. But if this is as funny as Ted and Universal pushes MacFarlane it should be a big hit for them.
Seth MacFarlane's debut of Ted was an incredible success, crossing over $200 million domestically. This movie looks to feature the same type of goofy humor in a unique setting. Of course westerns are risky after Cowboys & Aliens and The Lone Ranger, but this will be marketed as a comedy. Should do a little less than Ted, as it will not have the ability to make pop culture references as easily. But if this is as funny as Ted and Universal pushes MacFarlane it should be a big hit for them.
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