Academy Award for Best Picture Predictions (10/16)

BEST PICTURE
Top Predicted Five
Marriage Story	Queen and Slim	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	Ford V Ferrari	Parasite
Out of the festival circuit this received some of the most uniform enthusiasm.  Netflix got Roma noticed last year and they should be able to do better with this movie which brings with it directing, screenplay and writing nominations.  It has a terrific pair of modern movie stars.  Pickier voters will have an easy time supporting this one.	Still unseen, but the trailer and pedigree of all involved looks like a home run.  If Universal could get the controversial Green Book to win last year, then this is a good antidote.  It is helmed by a first-time feature director and Universal may push other films harder.  But this is a film that looks to powerfully deal with some modern issues.	Steam has died down, but this one has a lot to talk about and did amazing business.  A lock for nominations in Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplay.  There will be newer contenders that will overpower it.  The big danger is that there is a lot to this movie that won’t sit well with older Academy voters.  It is easy to campaign against this.	Disney just bought Fox and they’ll need some prestige to justify it.  Mangold has an old fashioned, slick star-powered studio picture.  This should easily fit into conversations about “the kinds of movies they don’t make anymore.”  Reviews are great.  May be more entertaining than urgent but expect this in several categories.	Foreign language films can be a tough sell for picture, but they can get through (Amour, Roma).  This has some of the best reviews of the year and Bong Joon-ho’s international career is solid enough that the Oscars would pay attention.  The distributor, Neon, hasn’t led a film to a Best Picture nominee before, but it should factor into the race.
Next Predicted Four				Runner-Up
Jojo Rabbit	Bombshell	Harriet	The Farewell	The Irishman
Mixed reviews for sure, but there is usually one strange movie that voters respond to (i.e. The Favourite last year).  The audaciousness makes it stand out and it definitely reflects current conversation.  Expect Searchlight to push this (with Disney’s backing).  There may be controversies, but nothing major.	Surprised that pundits had been ignoring this one until recently.  It has all of the right ingredients for a modern issue movie.  Expect this to fill The Big Short and Vice niche with corresponding acting and writing noms.  With political conversation ramping up I expect that to help this one feel important.	Reviews are fairly middling, but that doesn’t always matter for Best Picture.  It is amazing that Harriet Tubman hasn’t had a major biopic before and this looks like a good one with a great leading performance.  Sometime the subject matter is enough to get film’s noticed.  This is Focus Features best chance this year.	Early release with great word of mouth and decent business.  This is a great movie about family and culture.  It is the kind of movie people feel strongly about and it has already outlasted much bigger contenders.  A24 may end up pushing Waves harder, but I’d expect one of the two small family films to get in.	Netflix paid bank for this one.  They have a number of contenders, but this is designed for Oscar glory.  It may be a tough package to ignore.  The de-aging effects aren’t working for everybody and  Netflix is controversial enough that it is doubtful they can get more than two films nominated.  Still, this is an important factor in the race.
In Contention
1917	The Two Popes	Waves	A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	Joker
The one shot gimmick is what the movie has going for it now.  WWI rarely do as well and I think Universal would do better to focus on Queen and Slim.  Especially since this one doesn’t come with sure-thing acting contenders.  But there is a pedigree here and well-made war movies can do well at the Oscars.  Instincts say it will do great with technical awards, but not the bigger categories.  Think First Man.	Great word on this one.  It would be a shoe-in if Netflix didn’t also have Marriage Story and The Irishman to push.  This one is set for acting and writing.  But it is said to be a truly great film that is very moving.  Not out of the conversation.	Strong response to this one, especially the acting.  It is a smaller film, but should be powerful enough to stand out.  Could definitely see A24 push this over the earlier The Farewell.  Needs precursor notices to stay in the conversation.	If bringing back Freddy Mercury to viewers made Bohemian Rhapsody an Oscar hit, then Tom Hanks playing Mr. Rogers should do even better.  Reviews are great, but may feel lightweight.  Sony will push Once Upon a Time in Hollywood harder.  Remember that the Mr. Rogers documentary didn’t get nominated last year.	WB has a number of potential contenders (Just Mercy, The Good Liar, Motherless Brooklyn, Richard Jewell).  But there will be an expectation for this to get a nomination.  It is a controversial film, but it has made a lot of money.  If they really push Phoenix, he could carry it to Best Picture.  WB may want awards to justify its “real movie” selling point.  Can see them putting everything behind it.