Academy Award for Best Director Predictions- 10/16

BEST DIRECTOR
Top Predicted Five
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time	Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story	James Mangold, Ford V Ferrari	Melina Matsoukas, Queen and Slim	Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Has never won and a lot of the discussion with this film is about how he has matured.  Controversy may hurt its chances of winning Best Picture, but controversy is Tarantino’s brand.  Affection for him could finally get his directing win.  He is also the most popular main contender.	Been a great filmmaker for a long time who just hasn’t had that great Oscar package until now.  Anticipating huge things for his film, if it becomes the one to beat then he could win along with it.  He needs to really rack up the precursors first.	Solid director who has worked on Oscar contenders before.  There is an easy narrative with him making an Oscar film after a comic book one (which was notably nominated for screenplay).  Won’t win, but he and the film are reliable nominees.	First time directors can get in when their films do well at the Oscars.  Voters are still prejudiced with gender and race.  She is competing directly with other black and female filmmakers for a slot.  But the strength of the movie and her cast should get her onto the board.	Recognizable to American film snobs with Snowpiercer and Okja.  A highly respected international filmmaker.  With Pawel Pawlikowski’s nomination last year the directing branch is much more open to foreign-language films.  Parasite looks to be that strong.
Runner-Ups
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit	Martin Scorsese, The Irishman	Jay Roach, Bombshell	Kasi Lemmons, Harriet	Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Career is in the right place for this.  He has made unique indie films and kept his voice with a mainstream hit.  He is enough of name now and his film is very bold.  With him also acting he is an easy figure to latch onto.  If voters respond to this film then he could get a nomination like Yorgos Lanthimos did last year.	Always on the Oscar radar and he is making a crime film again.  There is a lot of respect for Scorsese and if his streaming movie plays to voters like his theatrical ones then he should get in.  Still a little doubtful with how much Netflix is able to push and if the film will even work for traditionalists.  Still, it is Scorsese.	Has not been close to Oscars before, but he has a career with well received comedies, political biopics and HBO Emmy winners.  Bombshell does not seem like a director’s movie, Roach doesn’t have a stamp like Adam McKay.  But it the film resonates then he could get in with it.	May be expecting too much out of the film, right now the buzz isn’t around the directing.  But I won’t rule out a well-made biopic about important history.  Looking at Kasi Lemmons’ career she reminds me of Kathryn Bigelow pre-Hurt Locker.  Good director with some great movies who just hasn’t had an Oscar film yet.	The Farewell has already stayed in the race pretty firmly.  As other films fall off this should continue as a viable contender.  Newer directors can get noticed for smaller films when it corresponds with Best Picture (i.e. Benh Zeitlin).  The Farewell is not a flashy movie so the directing may get overlooked.
In Contention
Sam Mendes, 1917	Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day	Jordan Peele, Us	Greta Gerwig, Little Women	Rian Johnson, Knives Out
There are pundits putting a lot behind 1917.  And if it is a technical marvel then Mendes could get in.  Don’t see a huge push to get him a second Oscar though and generally skeptical about the film’s strength in major categories unless it just ends up being amazing and innovative.	Her career is in a great place, especially with last year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me? having been a solid contender.  There is great word of mouth for this one and it should get to the heartstrings.  Needs to outlast heavier films overall for her to be a contender.	A very strong nominee two years ago.  Us has not had the same impact as Get Out, but it is still an original horror film that has made a lot of money and great reviews.  This is where he could become an Oscar favorite if he is remembered from earlier in the year.	Like Peele, she was a notable nominee two years ago.  Little Women is one of the film’s we haven’t seen yet so it is unknown how the film is.  If it is a late contender that builds steam she could get in.  Doesn’t feel like a director’s movie though, may do better in screenplay.	Response from the festival circuit was really strong, this is a great murder mystery.  What is appealing about this film is Rian Johnson’s voice.  If that one gets enough critical and precursor notice then he could get in as well.  But the film really needs to stand out among more traditional Oscar fare.