Sunday, January 7, 2018

Best Picture Predictions (1/7/18)

This year is really interesting for best picture because there is no set frontrunner.  There are seven films that are locks for nominations and among them six could win.  Making for an exciting race where we really don't know what will happen.

The best bets are Lady Bird, Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, The Shape of Water and Dunkirk.  The winner is somewhere in there and there is a strong case for all of them.  The Post is guaranteed a nomination, but won't have enough steam to cross the finish line.

With the Oscars preferential voting system there can be anywhere from 5-10 nominees for Best Picture.  Since the change to this system there have usually been 9 nominees.  But we had 8 nominees in 2014 and 2015, think this will be one of those years.  There seems to be enough steam for The Big Sick to get that last slot.  But The Florida Project or I, Tonya could also get the 8th or 9th nomination.

There are some outside chances for Mudbound, The Disaster Artist and Molly's GameWonder Woman and Logan are still in the conversation, outlasting the a hoard of well received blockbusters including Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2, War for the Planet of the Apes and Star Wars: The Last Jedi.  Other Oscar contenders like Battle of the Sexes, Last Flag Flying, Detroit, The Beguiled and many others could be shut out entirely, barring some artistic categories.  Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread will have to settle for acting nominations.


Best Picture
Top Five
Lady Bird
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing
Get Out
Shape of Water
 Pros: Getting notices across the board.  Strong chances for important categories of director, acting and screenplay.

Cons: Gerwig could be left out for director.  Smaller comedies don't often win.
 Pros: Most traditional Oscar drama contender this year and its been getting all the right places.

Cons: Some minor controversies.  Its director and actors could be considered too new for wins.  Smaller film among larger ones.
 Pros: Topical film with strong script and ensemble.

Cons: The humor and some of the harsher content might not sit well with traditional voters.  McDonagh could be left out for director.
 Pros: Most talked about film from last year.  Stayed in the race. Consistent in precursors.

Cons: Early release date, genre film, actor turned directors.  A lot for voters to get past.
 Pros: del Toro is definitely due for Oscar attention.  This film has been a staple in precursors.

Cons: Still a genre film.  Going to be a tough win, but it will be nominated.
Next Predicted Three
Runner-Ups
Dunkirk
The Post
The Big Sick
Florida Project
I, Tonya
 Pros: Nolan finally playing the Oscar game.  Big financial and critical hit.  Based on a true story.

Cons: Earlier release and it has been post over in precursors for others.
 Pros: Spielberg's true story about politics starring Streep and Hanks.  Was a lock from the announcement.

Cons: Not strong enough for more than a nomination.
 Pros: Early release that has stayed in the conversation, earning a SAG ensemble nominations and a lot of writing recognition.

Cons: Early release and a comedy in a year with a lot of comedy. No directing contender.
 Pros: A film many feel strongly about.  Lock for Best Supporting Actor.  Been receiving precursor notice.

Cons: Smaller film from a newer voice.  Not guaranteed much other than Dafoe.
 Pros: Just received a surprise PGA nomination.  Acting is getting a lot of attention.

Cons: Smaller film with a new distributor that has never gotten a film to the Oscars before.
Longer Shots
Wonder Woman
Mudbound
Molly’s Game
Disaster Artist
Logan
 Pros: Received a PGA nomation and other precursors.  Successful film that is important to many.

Cons: Competition with Logan.  Still a blockbuster.   There is criticism for the film.
 Pros: Good reviews.  Lock for Best Supporting Actress and screenplay.

Cons: Not popular enough to overcome streaming bias.
 Pros: Got a PGA nomination.

Cons: Not getting noticed for much else aside from Chastain and screenplay.
 Pros: Well received film with Oscar buzz.  AMPAS loves movies about movies.

Cons: Has not been getting much notice for Best Picture or Director.
 Pros: People really responded to this movie.  WGA nom helps.  Easiest superhero movie for voters to recognize.

Cons: Early release, still a blockbuster, other competition.

Oscar Predictions (Night of the Golden Globes)

I have been meaning to share my Oscar predictions for some time, now that the Golden Globes are going to happen in an hour I want to make sure I share my pre-Globe predictions.  I will be adding commentary throughout the show.


Best Picture
Top Five
Lady Bird
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO
Get Out
The Shape of Water





Next Predicted Three
Runner-Ups
Dunkirk
The Post
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
I, Tonya





Longer Shots
Wonder Woman
Mudbound
Molly’s Game
The Disaster Artist
Logan






Best Director
Top Five
Guillermo del Toro,
The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig,
Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan,
Dunkirk
Luca Guadagnino,
Call Me by Your Name
Martin McDonagh,
Three Billboards





Runner-Ups
Jordan Peele,
Get Out
Steven Spielberg,
The Post
Sean Baker,
The Florida Project
Paul Thomas Anderson,
Phantom Thread
Aaron Sorkin,
Molly’s Game






Best Actor
Top Five
Timothee Chalamet,
Call Me by Your Name
Gary Oldman,
Darkest Hour
James Franco,
The Disaster Artist
Daniel Day-Lewis,
Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya,
Get Out





Runner-Ups
Denzel Washington,
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Tom Hanks,
The Post
Robert Pattinson,
Good Time
Jake Gyllenhaal,
Stronger
Hugh Jackman,
The Greatest Showman





Best Actress
Top Five
Frances McDormand,
Three Billboards
Sally Hawkins,
The Shape of Water
Saoirse Ronan,
Lady Bird
Margot Robbie,
I, Tonya
Meryl Streep,
The Post





Runner-Ups
Jessica Chastain,
Molly’s Game
Judi Dench,
Victoria and Abdul
Emma Stone,
Battle of the Sexes
Gal Gadot,
Wonder Woman
Vicky Krieps,
Phantom Thread






Best Supporting Actor
Top Five
Willem Dafoe,
The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell,
Three Billboards
Armie Hammer,
Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins,
The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg,
Call Me by Your Name





Runner-Ups
Woody Harrelson,
Three Billboards
Steve Carell,
Battle of the Sexes
Christopher Plummer,
All the Money in World
Jason Mitchell,
Mudbound
Patrick Stewart,
Logan






Best Supporting Actress
Top Five
Laurie Metcalf,
Lady Bird
Allison Janney,
I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige,
Mudbound
Holly Hunter,
The Big Sick
Octavia Spencer,
The Shape of Water





Runner-Ups
Hong Chau,
Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish,
Girls Trip
Melissa Leo,
Novitiate
Lesley Manville,
Phantom Thread
Lois Smith,
Marjorie Prime







Best Original Screenplay
Top Five
Lady Bird
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick





Runner-Ups
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
The Florida Project






Best Adapted Screenplay
Top Five
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonderstruck





Runner-Ups
Logan
Wonder
The Lost City of Z
The Beguiled
Blade Runner 2049






Best Animated Feature
Top Five
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
LEGO Batman Movie





Runner-Ups
Big Bad Fox
and Other Tales
Ferdinand
Despicable Me 3
In this Corner of the World
Napping Princess