Academy Award for Best Actor Predictions- 10/16

BEST ACTOR
Top Predicted Five
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim	Adam Driver, Marriage Story	Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes	Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time	Christian Bale, Ford V Ferrari
Recent nominee for a film that wouldn’t normally get an acting nomination.  This movie looks to be a great showcase for him.  And he is a star on the rise.  If the movie goes over great then he gets in.	Driver’s been on a roll lately and got his first nomination last year.  This year he is also starring in The Report and the next Star Wars.  He and Johansson are a great pair of movie stars.  Both are locks for sure.	Veteran actor who has never been nominated.  This looks like his moment with amazing word about his work.  The better known Hopkins might overshadow him, but expect both to get nominations.	Someone people just associate with Oscars.  Had the perception of being tragically overdue when he won in 2016.  This is his first film since.  Tarantino can get his actors nominated when the films become contenders.  Too early for a second win, but definitely will get nominated.	Bale has been nominated for lesser work before, but this looks a big flashy role that suits his odd energy.  May end up competing with Matt Damon, but he appears to be the lead.  This is the more showy role and the Oscars have rewarded Bale for going showy before.
Runner-Ups
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker	Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory	Robert DeNiro, The Irishman	Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name	Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Consistently the best received thing in his movie.  One of those method performances that voters can get behind.  WB will really push this one and there will be a pressure from fans as well.  Unsure how voters will feel since they already rewarded Ledger for the role.  But the movie was big enough, Phoenix is greatly respected and the conversation isn’t going away.	Banderas has received strong accolades from the international circuit.  He is one of the bigger names to never have received an Oscar nomination.  Unsure how the film will play to voters as it isn’t a traditional Oscar film.  But the performance is said to be strong enough.  With the right push and precursor love he could crack the top five.	DeNiro working with Scorsese again is incredibly appealing.  Pairing him with Pacino, Pesci and Keitel makes this whole movie an event.  He is said to be great, but the de-aging is distracting and doesn’t work for everybody.  Netflix has stronger contenders with Driver and Pryce.  But DeNiro could get more support based on the cost and hype of The Irishman.	Same thing as DeNiro, there are other acting contenders that Netflix has to push.  But this is indeed a comeback for a beloved movie star with a previous nomination.  The film doesn’t have as strong of a reception as the other Netflix contenders which hurts the overall chances.  Need to see if voters respond to Netflix movies like theatrical fare or if they get forgotten quickly like most streaming films.	This movie isn’t strongly on the radar, but it has a solid director and great cast.  McKellen does great work with Bill Condon and this looks like a terrific showcase for the well-liked veteran.  If Warner Bros. chooses to push this film then we could see McKellen, Mirren and even Jim Carter enter the race as late contenders.
In Contention
Taron Egerton, Rocketman	Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit	Daniel Craig, Knives Out	Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy	Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day
After how well Rami Malek did last year you would think that this film and performance would be stronger.  But it has been out since May and it just is not part of the conversation.  Still, Egerton is amazing and complex in the role.  The movie should be considered for the Oscars.  He is waiting for bigger names to fall off though.	The best part of Jojo Rabbit is said to be the child actors.  If the film becomes a strong contender then the young stars could gain traction.  But it isn’t likely with so many veterans competing in this category.  But it is very rare that actors that young get acting nominations, let alone in the Best Actor in a Leading Role category.	He received great notices out of Toronto.  Craig has not been seriously up for an Oscar yet and this seems like a movie star role that could get him that kind of attention.  Knives Out still is not a traditional Oscar movie and he is playing a different type of character.  But if it is good, then it is good.  Sometimes voters respond to good.	He was a snub last year and is bound to get a nomination before long.  He received positive notice from festivals.  It doesn’t seem like the film is the strongest contender.  But there is a chance that WB pushes that over Joker or The Good Liar.	The marketing belongs to Hanks, but Rhys is the lead.  He is said to be very good.  But Hanks might get all of the attention.  Rhys is not as well-known and the movie’s appeal is seeing Mister Rogers.  The movie really needs to get noticed for Rhys to break out.