Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress Predictions- 10/16

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Top Predicted Five
Margot Robbie, Bombshell	Laura Dern, Marriage Story	Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers	Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell	Annette Bening, The Report
Has the best buzz from the movie.  Should be safer than her role as Sharon Tate, there is a danger of vote splits.  But she’s been nominated before and is a popular young star.  This could be her year.	Well-respected actress whose been having somewhat of a comeback the last several years.  With Marriage Story as the film to beat that puts her in place to possibly earn a career win.	Surprising Oscar contender, but she gives a strong, memorable performance in a surprisingly good film.  The buzz is all around her though.  Needs to outlast newer competition, but seems safe for her first nomination.	If The Farewell does well then Shuzhen could have her first nomination.  It is an interesting performance.  Very subtle, no big showy moments.  But there is a love for her character and warmness too her that keeps her very memorable.	Pundits often overpredict Bening.  But this should be her year to come back.  She doesn’t have a chance at winning, but Amazon lacks viable contenders.  This is their most likely push and the category is open enough for it.
Runner-Ups
Taylor Russell, Waves	Nicole Kidman, Bombshell	Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time	Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit	Jennifer Hudson, Cats
The young actors have a lot of the movie’s buzz.  The category is open enough for her to get in if Waves gets Best Picture attention.	Not hearing about her as much as Theron and Robbie.  But Kidman’s career has been great the past several years.  Her and Robbie could both be nominated (ala Stone and Weisz last year).	Considered this a lock until the buzz came for Bombshell.  That is a safer bet for several reasons.  This is an earlier release, there is an attitude that the role is too small and Hollywood voters might not be as comfortable with the portrayal of Sharon Tate.  Still, it is a great performance.  One will need to be pushed harder, potential vote splits.	A bigger contender for Marriage Story, but this year looks to be her moment.  Two acting nominations in one year is rare, but possible.  Could be overshadowed by Thomasin McKenzie.	If Cats works as a movie it will be because Jennifer Hudson’s song works.  The entire musical’s legacy is Memory and if she makes an impact on audiences then she could get nominated.  Unsure if voters will share the internet’s glibness toward the movie.  Could definitely see this being similar to Hathaway in Les Mis.  Also Hudson won for a musical already.
In Contention
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey	Meryl Streep, Little Women	Janelle Monae, Harriet	Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit	Chloe Sevigny, Queen and Slim
Downton Abbey was such a big hit that there will be a push for some nomination.  Maggie Smith as the favorite character and most celebrated actress is the easiest to acknowledge.  With the film potentially being a send off for her this could be a sentimental contender.	Streep has snuck in over stronger contenders time and time again.  It becomes an expectation to acknowledge her.  There is internal competition with Little Women (and her role might not be notable enough).  She could also get in for The Laundromat instead.	Has done great in movies like Moonlight and Hidden Figures.  She is a star and will make it to the Oscars someday.  Harriet needs to gain momentum for her to enter the race this year, though.	Was very well received in last year’s Leave No Trace and is said to be one of the highlights in this movie.  Younger performers can do well in this category.  But she is competing against the more established Johansson.	Received a decent amount of focus in the trailers.  Sevigny is a very good actress who has not had the right Oscar role yet.  If Queen and Slim breaks out with voters then she could go with it.