Academy Award for Best Actress Predictions- 10/16

BEST ACTRESS
Top Predicted Five
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet	Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story	Renee Zellweger, Judy	Charlize Theron, Bombshell	Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Erivo had a terrific year last year with Widows and Bad Times at the El Royale.  She is said to be the big reason to see this movie.  Actors can be nominated for carrying their movies.  Oftentimes the character being portrayed can appeal to voters.  Harriet Tubman is a character who should do that.	With this leading role, her supporting role in Jojo Rabbit and her big Marvel movies (Endgame this year, solo Black Widow next) it definitely seems like it is finally time for Johansson’s first nomination.  She has clearly been working towards this and she should be playing the game very well.  She can get bad press for statements so she might have a tough time winning	This has been a good comeback for an Oscar winner.  Judy Garland is going to be of interest to many Oscar voters.  Doesn’t seem like the film will get traction elsewhere, but she should be a strong lock.	Theron has been cranking out great movies in the past several years without any Oscar attention.  This should finally get her invited back.  The character of Megyn Kelly may be a stumbling block for some voters, but not a major one.  It is time for Theron and Bombshell is going to get its actresses noticed.	Debut performances can be tough sells, Kiki Layne got no notice last year.  But this is a two-hander.  If Kaluuya gets nominated then Turner-Smith will too.  Anticipating the film to be one of the bigger contenders this season.
Runner-Ups
Awkwafina, The Farewell	Alfre Woodard, Clemency	Saoirse Ronan, Little Woman	Lupita Nyong’o, Us	Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
She’s been a star on the rise and gets a chance to prove how great of an actress she is here.  Her performance is keeping the film such a consistent contender.  Expect her to be a figure in precursors.	There was great early word on this performance and that has been echoed by the festivals.  Woodard is a veteran who has not been back since 1983.  The film is very small and she has bigger stars to outshine.	It is amazing how many nominations Ronan has accumulated as such a young age.  She is an Oscar favorite and if this film works then she could easily go with it.	Early release that had amazing buzz for Nyong’o.  She hasn’t had an Oscar role since her win in 2013.  May be forgotten, but Peele led Kaluuya to his nomination too.  This cements her as a movie star, but she needs to be remembered first.	Mirren has not been in serious contention for a while.  But she symbolizes quality to voters and this film good get her back in the game.  This category is too crowded without the film really breaking out.
In Contention
Juliette Binoche, The Truth	Mary Kay Place, Diane	Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love	Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts	Kate Winslet, Blackbird
Previous winner in a well-received smaller film.  The Truth will probably be shut out.  Needs precursors.	Veteran actor who is said to be amazing.  The race seems to have moved on without her.	Manville has gotten in for small British films before, but this one never fully took off.	Well liked young star in a well-liked movie.  Not the heaviest, but could show up in some precursors.	Good reviews, but no American distributor.  Could potentially upset, but won’t be in the US by Oscar time.