Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2014 Box-Office Predictions ($90-$115 million)

30. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount, 9/8)- $90 million
Ninja Turtles is a beloved franchise who have experienced a resurgence with their Nickelodeon show.  However hype is almost nonexistent for this movie and many fans of the comics and various cartoons have been critical of the little information that has come out.  It seems to try to be appealing to fans of the 1987 cartoon while making changes to the franchise.  It will probably earn fans of the current series, families may see this more than adult fans.  There is a definite attempt at Transformers, but it will probably be closer to G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra.  There are many other superhero movies this year (notably Guardians of the Galaxy also in August) that this will be lost in the shuffle.

29. The Neighbors (Universal, 5/8)- $90 million
There have already been three trailers that have all been well received and show a lot of great jokes.  This is clearly building buzz off of the success of Seth Rogen's This is the End.  It also features rising star Dave Franco, Rose Byrne (who starred in Bridesmaids which was a huge hit the same weekend in 2011) and Zac Efron who has been waiting for a break-out film role.  This should play well with younger audiences but has a broad enough appeal for older crowds too.  If it is really funny it could get close to Bridesmaids' total, but I am anticipating at least a little under $100 million.

28. Need for Speed (Disney, 3/14)- $95 million
The video game is popular and Aaron Paul has his fan base, but a transition from TV to film is difficult.  Video game movies never do well, Prince of Persia is probably the best it will do.  This is definitely looking to go after the Fast and Furious crowd, but that franchise only improved once it moved away from cars.  Should be decent for March, but not as much as Dreamworks was hoping.

27. Night at the Museum 3 (Fox, 12/19)- $95 million
The original movie was an incredible success.  The sequel experienced a significant drop three years after that.  This will also definitely earn less as five years have passed since the sequel received middling success.  Stiller also underperformed last december with Secret Life of Walter Mitty.  There is also competition with Annie.  I am sure that Fox is hoping for at least this to get close to Chipwrecked or Anchorman 2, but this will definitely be the final film of the franchise.

26. Hercules: The Thracian Wars (Paramount, 7/25)- $100 million
Dwayne Johnson is not a sure thing, but in big action movies he is as sure as it gets anymore.  Teaming him with Brett Ratner in a Hercules movie should play well with general audiences and fans of The Scorpion King.  The failure of The Legend of Hercules could help this, but also potentially hurt it as that movie's poor reception could effect this one.  It will not be a huge hit, but there are enough familiar aspects to make this cross $100 million.

25. Maleficent (Disney, 5/30)- $100 million
Disney is hoping for this to earn close to Alice in Wonderland or Oz: The Great and Powerful, but dark fairy tale retellings have been doing increasingly worse.  Sleeping Beauty is not a popular brand and Angelina Jolie is not a relevant movie star anymore.  If Snow White and the Huntsman made $155 million domestically this should do lower than that as that featured Kristen Stewart.  It won't be as bad as Jack the Giant Slayer, but this does also have the potential to be this year's annual Disney bomb (Mars Needs Moms, John Carter and Lone Ranger).  I think that Disney's marketing will save it, but I may be overestimated it too.

24. Noah (Paramount, 3/28)- $100 million
There are enough elements to make this a success.  Big spectacle, disaster and a Biblical story.  However this may hurt from being either too religious or not religious enough.  Russell Crowe is not a huge star anymore, but this should do business close to Robin Hood.  There is enough hype surrounding this that people will see it right away, but its quality will affect on whether or not people return.

23. Get on Up (Universal, 8/1)- $105 million
Released around the same time as The Butler and features cast members from The Help and 42.  James Robinson is an important cultural figure and if this movie is a good drama and has impressive musical scenes it could be one of the few biopics to do well.  Oscar buzz will help this and Chadwick Boseman is the star to make this work.  I am trying to anticipate a surprise success which is tough, but this should surprise.

22. Gone Girl (Fox, 10/3)- $110 million
There is already a lot of buzz around this one.  Bestselling book, David Fincher and post-comeback Ben Affleck will help this to be a hit.  If it lives up to expectations and becomes an Oscar player it could do even better than this.  This is dependent on quality, but should make back its budget.

21 Rio 2 (Fox, 4/11)- $115 million
The original Rio did well, but the movie was not a huge hit and has mainly been forgotten.  Should do well with families who have a lack of options, but there are other movies that have more box-office potential.  Should do a bit better than Epic, but won't be a new Ice Age.

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