Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Best Animated Feature Predictions

Predicted Five
Pros: Disney has been on a roll, each of their last five films have been among the best reviewed films of their respective years.  This studio created the animated feature and continues to move the industry, they are definitely snubbed.  Early reviews and word of mouth for this is great.  If the box-office does well
Cons: A Disney feature has never won in this category, voters do not seem interested in the studio.  This category has a definite Pixar bias which could lead to Monsters University winning.  The revered status of Hayao Miyazaki could also put The Wind Rises as the front runner.  If Frozen's box-office is not good, or even not as comparable to Monsters University and Despicable Me 2, then it may not win.

The Wind Rises
Pros: The final film of the revered Hayao Miyazaki, who previously won in 2002 and was nominated in 2005.  The reviews and word of mouth has been amazing.  The mature content and traditional animation will make this stand out.
Cons: A traditionally animated movie has only won this award once.  Mature animated movies often don't even get nominated.  Disney will also be campaigning Monsters University and Frozen, which will have much bigger box-offices and name recognition.

Monsters University
Pros: As evidenced by Brave last year, voters always default to Pixar.  Monsters University surprised many people as a better movie than many expected and did great numbers at the box-office.  Many felt the original should have won in 2001.
Cons: Not everybody has been as kind to this movie, seems to be a stigma towards Pixar doing non-Toy Story sequels.  Frozen and Wind Rises seem to be stronger nominees.

Ernest and Celestine
Pros: GKids has done a great job at getting surprised nominations with Secret of Kells, Chico and Rita and A Cat in Paris.  This French film has gotten great word.  Artistry looks vastly different from the rest of the contenders.
Cons: If there are strong enough American features then the foreign features often are left off.  Needs a good campaign as this could easily be forgotten.  Academy does not always support traditional animation.  GKids may campaign other movies.

The Croods
Pros: Good reviews and good box-office.  Dreamworks is capable of campaigning to animation.  One of the stronger movies released in a weaker year for animation.
Cons: Early release and has already been forgotten by many.  Not as well liked as other nominees.

Despicable Me 2
Pros: Incredible box-office, the public has really latched onto this franchise.  Some may see the first, which was well liked, as snubbed.  If voters latched onto the Minions then they will like this movie.  This could surprise.
Cons: May not be as popular with voters as it is with general audiences.  No Illumination Animation movie has ever gotten far in the Oscar race.  Definitely not a sure thing.

Pros: A more mature feature with beautiful designs and animation.  This has a huge scale and is a real spectacle.  Fox could play up the environmental angle, which is what earned Happy Feet its Oscar.
Cons: This movie was quickly forgotten and did not do the best with critics.  Spectacle adventure cartoons like this do not do the best in this category (i.e. Rise of the Guardians), comedy that skews towards young audiences is clearly favorited.  Ice Age was the only Blue Sky movie to ever receive a nomination.

A Letter to Momo
Pros: GKids was able to get two nominations in a very strong 2011.  Good reviews.
Cons: Going to be less popular than Ernest and Celestine and Wind Rises.  Unlikely that three traditionally animated foreign films will be up for Oscars, especially since GKids is not as powerful of a distributor.

Pros: Dreamworks may put effort into campaigning this to save face after this underperformed.
Cons: This did underperform, they are not likely to associate themselves with it.  Year is not weak enough for it to be considered.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Pros: The first one was seen as snubbed in 2009
Cons: People did not seem to like this one as much or even go to see it.  Just listing it here as a placeholder.

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