2017 Oscar Predictions- Best Picture

This is year has much stronger batch of Oscar contenders than we've had in recent years.  There are six films that are absolute locks, although none have reached frontrunner status yet.  Which bodes well for the wins being spread out among the categories.

As of right now I am predicting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to win, although it is far from a sure thing.  This is a very topical movie that is difficult and memorable, but clever and funny enough to go down easy.  It will be well represented in screenplay and multiple acting categories.  This has a consistent presence in the precursors and currently has a slight edge on the others.

Next up is the universally praised Lady Bird.  Many are predicting this to win, but Gerwig's directing nomination makes it a little less certain.  It seems too light for an Oscar win, comedies don't win at the Oscars.  But it still could surprise.  Call Me by Your Name has been consistently represented in the precursors throughout several categories and has an edge as being a traditional drama in a year with a lot of comedies and genre films.

Speaking of genre films Get Out has astonishingly maintained its place in the Oscar conversation despite its early release and horror background.  Like Gerwig, Peele could easily be left out as a director and it would be a very surprising win.  The Shape of Water on the other hand is guaranteed to get its director noticed as well as acting and screenplay nominations.

Dunkirk has been overshadowed by newer releases, but it is still in the race.  Just no longer has its chance to win.   The Post is not as much of a sure thing as it had once seemed, but respect for Spielberg, Streep and Hanks should help this more standard Oscar fare.

Beyond these seven, the Oscars will nominate between one to two more films (they haven't nominated ten since the voting process changed).  The Florida Project has been making a good show in the precursors, but it could still be just about Dafoe at the end of the day.  The Big Sick has also stayed in the race.  Being shut out of the Globes hurts, but that SAG nomination does more for it.

Other potential nominees include Mudbound, which has been getting notices but it is not strong enough the Oscars to get past their streaming bias.  The Disaster Artist seems to just be about Franco and the screenplay.  Darkest Hour was not the major player it was expected to be, but it could be traditional enough to appeal to voters.  Paul Thomas Anderson always has vocal supporters, but it is doubtful they will line up for Phantom Thread.  I, Tonya has its supporters but it buzz seems to be just about the performers and it has a new distributor that is inexperienced in the Oscar game.

Coco is not a strong enough Pixar film to get nominated for Best Picture (something they only pulled off twice, seven years ago).  As for the blockbusters they were either too divisive (Star Wars, Guardians) or had too little impact (Planet of the Apes, Blade Runner).  Leaving Wonder Woman and Logan, but they would have had a major precursor notice if they were going to have a chance at crossing the finish line.  Get Out, The Shape of Water, and a Christopher Nolan movie will be enough of a departure for voters.

Predicted Nominees

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Lady Bird

Call Me by Your Name

Get Out

The Shape of Water

Dunkirk

The Post

The Florida Project

The Big Sick

2016 Final Best Picture Predictions

Best Picture is a three way race right now.  Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea are the only ones with a chance to win.  Moonlight is the progressive vote, the scrappy new voice that represents the current reality of race and sexuality.  La La Land is the nostalgic vote, a film about filmmaking and old fashioned idealism.  Manchester by the Sea is not as strong as the other two, but it will be an emotional vote.  Audiences are connecting with its themes about grief and it has a strong impact.  Manchester has the potential to sweep in if there is a divide between Moonlight and La La Land.

With the Academy's preferential voting system it doesn't seem like we will never see ten Best Picture nominees again.  There will be 8-9 nominees, I am going to predict 9 nominations because that is the usual number.  Hell or High Water and Arrival are sure nominees, but they don't have a chance at winning.  Fences and Hacksaw Ridge aren't as strong, but expect them to be among the 9 as well.  The final two will most likely be Lion and Hidden Figures, although if anything upsets those two will be out.

Here are my predictions and analysis for the Best Picture race:

TOP PREDICTED FIVE NOMINEES
Moonlight	La La Land	Manchester by the Sea	Hell or High Water	Arrival
Moonlight gets the progressive vote.  After years of lacking diversity, this is a film that acknowledges race and sexuality in a powerful way.  Moonlight may be too small but that hasn’t stopped Hurt Locker and others from winning.  It is also not overexposed in the precursors; films that are preordained to win early on often fizzle out.  Moonlight is still being discovered and discussed.	La La Land gets the nostalgic vote.  It is comfortable and idealistic.  It is about Hollywood and voters can really respond to that (The Artist, Argo).  Musical films can feel really fresh after the genre not being popular for a while.  La La Land has enough serious contenders in directing, acting, writing and technical categories to be taken seriously.  But it missed out a SAG ensemble nomination and may be getting too many precursors, votes may look elsewhere after this being hyped for so long.	Manchester by the Sea gets the sentimental, emotional vote.  It is about grief, voters really respond to that.  Add in a frontrunner for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay, this has a chance at winning.  However precursor support isn’t as heavy and Affleck’s controversies could still weigh it down.  It isn’t making the same impact as Moonlight or La La Land.  But it could benefit from vote splits between the two.  Manchester needs just enough voters to rank it Number One.  It may make a big enough emotional impact for that to happen.	This is a small summer limited release that became a sleeper and good word of mouth has grown.  It has a great ensemble and many are viewing this as a good look at Trump’s America.  This film is sympathetic to the working class American, which is an important issue.  It won’t have the support to win, but it is assured its nomination and will be up for several important categories.	This will be nominated for sure.  A critical success that had people talking and earned great box-office.  Amy Adams is a sign of quality and Denis Villeneuve has been working towards a Best Picture nominee.  This will be up for screenplay and important technical nominations.  It may not win much, but it will receive a lot of nods.
NEXT FOUR PREDICTED NOMINEES/RUNNER-UP FILM
Fences	Hacksaw Ridge	Lion	Hidden Figures	Sully
Powerful drama incredibly adapted from an important play.  Plays don’t always translate to Oscar nominations but with the two strong lead performances and screenplay you can count on this nomination.	This earlier release has stayed in the conversation and done consistently well among precursors.  It is strong enough to get Gibson a directing nomination and Garfield his first acting nod.	Not a strong contender, but it has outlasted a lot of competition.  Expect it to be among the nominees.	If the Oscars make it to 9 films, Hidden Figures will be among them.  Its strong box-office shows real interest in this subject.  Octavia’s guaranteed nomination doesn’t hurt.  Not incredibly strong and might be left out if only 8 films are nominated.	Have Sully as the first alternate.  Doubtful ten films will ever be nominated again (Oscar voting is so messed up).  Sully did good business, had decent reviews and is associated with Eastwood and Hanks.  Good enough to make it in.
THE LONG SHOTS
Silence	Loving	Florence Foster Jenkins	Nocturnal Animals	Deadpool
Respect for Scorsese is what will get this in.  But looking at precursor and the film’s overall potential nominations it is not looking great.	Loving just hasn’t received the precursor notice required.  More likely than other films, but it is pretty much out of the race.	Streep may be able to carry this film to a nomination.  It did good box-office and has a supporting actor nomination and potential writing nomination.  Just good enough to be a safe vote (ala Extremely Loud).	Some voting bodies are really responding to this, others are not.  Think this is out of the race for the most part.  Especially since Amy Adams nomination will be for Arrival.  Still strong enough to surprise.	Yes, this got a PGA nomination.  They have nominated other genre fare (Ex Machina) and films that don’t make it to the Oscars (Sicario).  Deadpool won’t make it in, but it has surprised enough that I have to mention it.

Oscar Predictions (1/7/13)

With all of the Guild nominations announced and the Globes taking place on Sunday I had better update my predictions.  Click on the links to see my predictions for this years Oscars.  As always please keep in mind that I am predicting who will most likely be nominated, but who should.  If I do not list a movie that you love that is not a personal attack on your tastes.

           

Best Picture

      

Best Director

Best Actress

Best Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

       

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

        

Best Animated Feature (no need to update this)