Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

This category is centered on six main contenders and has very little room for surprises.  Amy Adams is a staple in this category and has been well received in Her, but her main campaign will be in lead for American Hustle.  A SAG nomination for best ensemble keeps Jennifer Garner in very slight contention, but her nomination is extremely unlikely and dependent on a Dallas Buyers Club receiving a Best Picture nomination.  Lea Seydoux has received minor notice for Blue is the Warmest Color, but the focus has been mainly on her co-star and a foreign language performance is not likely here.  Margo Martindale began the year as a potential frontrunner for August: Osage County, but that did not go anywhere.  Every year pundits always seem to overpredict Carey Mulligan, who was well received in Inside Llewyn Davis but that has not translated to precursors.  If Fruitvale Station hits with voters then Melonie Diaz could surprise, but that is an extremely slim chance.  Margot Robbie gave a very strong debut in Wolf of Wall Street, but the controversy of that movie will keep her from a surprise nomination.

Sarah Paulson was a strong contender before precursor season, where she has been missing out.  She has the advantage of 12 Years a Slave being a frontrunner, but the disadvantage of competing with a more popular co-star.  Traditionally this is the category where Woody Allen films do well.  Sally Hawkins received a Globe nomination and has been considered to be snubbed by some for previous work.  If anyone surprises out of the main predicted six, I am guessing it is one of these two.

Octavia Spencer is a recent winner who received a NBR award, but she has missed out on SAG and the Globes.  Fruitvale Station is not as popular as her competitors' and her role is somewhat small for this category.  However there is a possibility that voters will reward the film by nominating her if they don't nominate the film.  Jennifer Lawrence is the current it-girl that won last year.  She is very popular, well-liked and has a type of role that does well in this category.  There is some backlash towards her and her win last year, which could hurt her campaign for American Hustle.   June Squibb surprised in Nebraska and was a stand-out in it.  This category does not always reward older actresses, but she has been consistent in the precursors.  These are the three competing for the final two slots.

Julia Roberts has been consistent in precursors to consider her a lock.  However a win is not expected as August: Osage County has not been all that well received, she is playing too much against type for some and her career has been in poor shape.  Despite missing a Globe nomination Oprah Winfrey is a lock for The Butler.  She is a powerful figurehead who received a majority of the movie's acclaim.  It seems that she earned frontrunner status too early in the race for her to win.  The newcomer Lupita Nyong'o seems as if she will win for 12 Years a Slave.  At this point in the race this is the only really undisputed winner in any major category.

Predicted Five:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (winner)
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Runner-Ups: Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

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