2014 Box-Office Predictions ($70-$85 million)

40. Blended (5/23, WB) - $70 million
Adam Sandler can do great business (Grown Ups 2, Hotel Transylvania) or poor business (Jack and Jill, That's My Boy).  This should be somewhere in the middle.  This seems to be a little more family friendly, which is the demographic Sandler has been succeeding with recently.  But this premise of a trip to Africa seems to be less marketable and relatable to American families and the re-teaming with Drew Barrymore shouldn't help too much as her career has been very poor lately.  Competition should be the main factor against this.  May is full of big budget spectacles and The Neighbors may take the comedy crowd.

39. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Paramount, 1/17)- $70 million
Moving a movie to January is never a good thing.  Paramount is clearly hoping to making Jack Ryan a franchise similar to Bourne, Mission: Impossible and James Bond.  However Chris Pine is a not a sure thing at the box-office and hype is pretty low on this.  It will stand out in an empty January, however.  The franchise recognition, star power and lack of competition should help this to get around Contraband numbers.  Will most likely do better than Chris Pine's This Means War, but it may not be enough to restart this franchise.

38. The Equalizer (Columbia, 9/14)- $75 million
Even when Denzel Washington doesn't do great business (last year's 2 Guns) he still easily passes $50 million.  Like 2 Guns this is an August release, so it will not do as well as Safe House or Flight.  But Denzel's star power should bring this to $75 million.  Will be in the top fifty films of the year no matter what.

37. Dumb and Dumber To (Universal, 11/14)- $75 million
Despite the legendary status the original 1994 film has it is doubtful that it will be an enormous success.    Jim Carrey did not help Kick-Ass 2 or Incredible Burt Wonderstone last year.  This will do better than those two, but movies with long sequel gaps have not had as much success as Hollywood thinks that they will have.  If Anchorman 2 could only get close to $120 million with its aggressive marketing and people begging for it then it is doubtful that this will cross $100 million unless it is really funny and manages to be relevant.

36. Non-Stop (Universal, 2/28)- $75 million
For whatever reason Liam Neeson does well in February.  Even The Unknown was a decent success for the first quarter of the year.  This will not do Taken business, but putting Liam Neeson on a plane with the support of Julianne Moore will get people in theatres.

35. Exodus (Fox, 12/12)- $80 million
Ridley Scott has been prolific, but has not been doing well critically or commerically in the past several years.  With the resurgence of biblical films this should find an audience.  There are recognizable stars and Moses is one of the more familiar Bible stories.  If it gets Oscar buzz (based on Ridley Scott's recent films it won't) it could do better.  But I am anticipating the Christian right supporting it over the holidays.  Not going to be a huge hit, but could be modest enough.

34. Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros., 6/6)- $80 million
Tom Cruise's career has not been what it once was.  This will most likely hit a little lower than Oblivion but higher than Knight and Day.  Visually it looks like Elysium meets Source Code.  It will have a lot of competition it won't have the critical response or mainstream appeal to pass, but Cruise probably won't earn less than $70 million in an action movie.

33. Think Like a Man Too (Screen Gems, 6/20)- $80 million
The first movie was a huge surprise, but that was in March.  This will premiere in a crowded summer.  But Madea's Witness Protection did well two summers ago with a similar release date and last year's sequel Best Man Holiday really surprised.  The popular cast, notably the inclusion of Kevin Hart, and positive response for the original should help this to do similar business.

32. Muppets Most Wanted (Disney, 3/21)- $85 million
The Muppets had a huge response in 2011, but that was the comeback and was creatively marketed.  This has not had the same ingenious marketing and The Muppets have not been consistently popular since then (their Lady Gaga special bombed).  But this is still a beloved franchise with a decent amount of hype.  If it hits with adults and families it should do close to similar numbers as the previous movie.

31. Jupiter Ascending (WB, 7/18)- $85 million
This will not as much of a failure as Cloud Atlas or Speed Racer but not as big as The Matrix.  Relevant stars Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum should help it find a decent audience, but as evidenced by last summer's White House Down he is not a sure thing.  Original sci-fi's are difficult sells and this has a similar release date to Pacific Rim, which underperformed.  If it gets a good reception it could pass $100 million, but there is a lot of competition that is more accessible and this looks to be potentially divisive among sci-fi fans.

Roles That Harrison Ford Was Not the First Choice For

Star Wars

Who Else Was Considered?: James Caan, Nick Nolte, Al Pacino, Burt Reynolds, Kurt Russell, Sylvester Stallone, Christopher Walken, Billy Dee Williams, James Woods, many, many others

Who Would Have Done the Best?: Out of the stars listed, who are all great actors, Kurt Russell would be able to get the closest to Ford's mix of charm, humor and badass.  However Billy Dee Williams clearly does great work in Star Wars movies and would have been great as Han.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: Absolutely.  He completely embodied the cowboy character and brought so much to the franchise in his unique interpretation.  It says a lot that he was even cast with Lucas trying to find anybody else to play the part.  He really was the only option.

Apocalypse Now

Who Else Was Considered?: James Caan

Who Would Have Done the Best?: Well James Caan would have been fine and he clearly works well with Coppola.  His career would have been better for accepting the lower salary for this smaller role.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: Not Ford's best known role but having two Coppola credits rounds out his filmography a bit.

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who Else Was Considered?: Jeff Bridges, Willem Dafoe, Tim Matheson, Sam Neill, Nick Nolte, Tom Selleck, many others

Who Would Have Done the Best?: While Selleck was the top choice (couldn't accept due to his commitment to Magnum P.I.) I would have gone with Jeff Bridges out of that list.  Bridges has a great sense of humor and a leading man quality.  Would have been entertaining in the role and able to carry the movies well.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: Even more than Han Solo, Ford made this movie.  As capable as the other actors are the movies would not have worked the same without him.

Blade Runner

Who Else Was Considered?: James Caan, Sean Connery, Dustin Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Raul Julia, Robert Mitchum

Who Would Have Done the Best?: There were a wide variety of stars up for this one and they all would have brought something interesting and different.  The role was designed for Mitchum and the producers spent months courting Hoffman.  But I think that a young Tommy Lee Jones would have fit in the dystopian setting the best and would have led his career in a different direction.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: Yes, while not a huge success this movie is still revered.  Don't think that he was as necessary of a component in this one as he is in other movies, as this is not an actor's film.  But Ford has always been able to give a movie what it needs and not distract.

Witness

Who Else Was Considered?: Jack Nicholson, Sylvester Stallone

Who Would Have Done the Best?: Jack liked the script but didn't commit because there was no director at that time.  Jack has played similar types in movies such as Chinatown and can play the romantic angle well.  Sly would have worked but not as well, although it was better movies than he was acting in at the time.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: This is Ford's sole Oscar nomination.  The movie is still regarded as one of the best action movies of all time.  He is believable as an action star but he does have a great character arc and is just as entertaining in the romantic scenes.

Patriot Games

Who Else Was Considered?: Alec Baldwin

Who Would Have Done the Best?: Baldwin's Ryan was well-received in Hunt for Red October and he would have worked reprising the role.  Would have certainly helped Baldwin's film career.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: This was a casting change that worked.  Casting a bigger star for the sequels probably helped the movies' box-office.

The Fugitive

Who Else Was Considered?: Alec Baldwin, Kevin Costner, Andy Garcia

Who Would Have Done the Best?: I think that out of the three Garcia would have been the most interesting, he was a recent Oscar nominee at the time and could have brought some prestige to the movie.  The other two were always up for many of the same roles as Ford and probably would not have brought too much different to it.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: Ford is an intelligent action star, doubtful that the movie would have been nominated for Best Picture without him as the human leading character.

Air Force One

Who Else Was Considered?: Kevin Costner

Who Would Have Done the Best?: Costner would have been alright but not great.  He has never quite worked as an action star, his best roles are more dramatic in nature.  However he turned down this role that was intended for him to make Postman which really hurt his career.

Did it Work Out with Ford?: This was a huge success that many still love.  Ford can really elevate an action film.