Non-Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

The Oscar nominees were: Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt and Jacki Weaver.  Hunt is the only one I haven't seen and Weaver was a big surprise.  The award is Hathaway's to lose, but Adams and Field are ideal contenders.  Here are my picks for Best Supporting Actress Not Nominated for an Academy Award.

Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

I fell in love with Samantha Barks as Eponine in the Les Miserables 25th Anniversary Concert.  I had watched that version so much and I was surprised how her performance as the same character differed on screen.  Samantha Barks takes advantage of being on screen to be much more personal and less grand.  Her character is allowed to be fleshed out a bit more too as we get why she is so obsessed with Marius.  She is neglected and has nothing in her life and just needs something.  Barks portrays the ultimate in unrequited love.  You can't help but want to save her and make everything right, but her life just gets more and more tragic.  Barks leaves a big impact in an impressive ensemble and has an incredible singing voice.

Anne Hathaway, Dark Knight Rises

I did not care for Dark Knight Rises, I was really let down by it.  However I liked everything about Anne Hathaway's Catwoman.  She was exciting and stole the show.  Hathaway was a brilliant bit of casting as she can embody the physicality and slyness.  It is a layered performance as she is a very smart character playing much dumber and helpless.  There is always a lot going on with the character and I can't think of anyone else who can convey that better.  Hathaway will win for Les Miserables, and deservedly so, but this performance is just as good and demonstrates Hathaway's versatility as a performer.

Michelle Pfeiffer, People Like Us

It has been far too long since Michelle Pfeiffer was in a good movie.  I was relieved to see her in a decent role for a change.  Her beauty is definitely toned down here as she plays normal and broken very believably.  She is captivating without having to be likable.  Her performance provides the audience into a look at Chris Pine's childhood as you can tell she was not the easiest mother to grow up with.  She has some very tender scenes.  The script does have some well placed contrivances, but the veteran actress never relies on them.  A stand-out in a terrific ensemble.

Olivia Thirlby, Dredd

A lot of movies seemed to try and incorporate a strong action female this year.  Some succeeded with characters like Katniss and Selina Kyle and others failed with Princess Merida and Kristen Stewart's Snow White. But Olivia Thirlby in Dredd is the most one of the most progressive action movie female characters ever.  Thirbly is not there as a love interest, she has a role to play on a mission.  She is believable  and competent while being naturally sympathetic and questioning.  She has the depth that Karl Urban's stoic lead doesn't and Thirlby definitely holds her own against the towering figure.  She has a fascinating character arc and leaves an impact.  You completely forget that you are watching Juno's best friend.  A very underrated performance from an unfortunately forgotten movie.

Rebel Wilson, Pitch Perfect

I have never witnessed an audience respond to a performance as much as Rebel Wilson's show stealing role as Fat Amy.  This is a fairly one joke character with a actress who elevates it to memorable and entertaining.  Wilson just has an energy to her and such perfect comedic timing.  She can sing and her personality is always being showcased.  There is a reason all of the marketing for Pitch Perfect features her, she owns this movie and is a stand out among other great performances.  I hope she starts getting lead roles, because supporting roles like these don't seem to be able to contain her anymore.

Other Great Supporting Performances:

Helena Bonham Carter (Les Miserables), Tabu (Life of Pi), Anna Hutchison (Cabin in the Woods), Kelly Reilly (Flight), Olivia Wilde (People Like Us), Emily Blunt (Looper), America Ferrera (End of Watch), Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage), Judi Dench (Skyfall), Anna Camp (Pitch Perfect), Alison Brie (Five-Year Engagement), Charlize Theron (Prometheus)

Non-Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

The Academy nominated all previous winners this year: Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz.  Out of these I would actually pick Arkin as my favorite.  He had some surprisingly subtle layers in a fairly small role.  I also really liked Hoffman and Waltz.  DeNiro and Jones gave their best performances in way too long, but they weren't among my personal picks.  There were so many great supporting actors this year, but I narrowed down the five that meant the most to me.  Here are my picks for the Best Supporting Actors Not Nominated for an Academy Award:

Albert Brooks, This is 40

I can't think of a better fit for Judd Apatow's style than the great Albert Brooks.  Apatow specializes in unlikable and harsh characters and Brooks embraces those qualities.  He can play up despicable as funny and relatable without needing redeeming moments.  Brooks steals every moment on screen and also helps to elevate Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann's performances.  Nobody makes unlikable more likable than Albert Brooks in one of his best performances ever.  He has what very few other comedic performers have: sincerity and honesty, even if the sincerity and honesty is not comfortable or nice.

James Badge Dale, Flight

This is the definition of a one scene wonder.  Maybe I should have mentioned a performer with more screen time, but I love these little bit parts.  Dale couldn't have been on screen for more than five minutes, yet he leaves a strong impact.  He plays a man dying from cancer who interrupts Denzel and Kelly Reilly's meeting in the stairwell.  They are both frustrated with their current situation and are at different stages of their addictions, but Dale enters and ups the ante with a more depressing story about situations he can't control.  There is so much frustration to him but also a sense of carelessness.  When you can steal a scene away from Denzel Washington by being more commanding you deserve attention.

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

I am so happy to see Beasts of the Southern Wild receive four big unexpected nominations, but it still missed out on a few.  The main one was Dwight Henry for supporting actor.  Henry is a novice actor who portrays the most difficult character of the year.  The character is difficult to like and warm up to, but there is a respect you feel for him even if you don't understand or agree with him.  Henry can come across as neglectful and at times abusive towards his young daughter, but there is a pride to him and no matter what parental standards he fails he still loves little Hushpuppy.  His character demands respect and the movie is very much on his terms.  He represents what a certain way of life can mean to a person.  Some of the most difficult scenes I've ever scene are when he struggles to communicate with his daughter and tries to prepare her to survive without him.  This is one of the great movie fathers and unquestionably one of the best performances of 2012.

Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Casting a boyish 30-year-old as Marius was the best decision the filmmakers could make regarding the character.  Redmayne brings a great deal of loss and maturity along with the character's innocent idealism.  This character was not one I was looking forward to, but his sorrowful rendition of Empty Chairs was the most moving part of the film.  He can transition from powerful and grand to small and personal with ease.  He also made the love story with Cosette work due to his charisma and likability.  I see a bright future for Eddie Redmayne.

Mark Ruffalo, The Avengers

When I saw that Ruffalo was cast as Bruce Banner I thought it was a genius move.  But I did not anticipate the way he would interpret the character.  I have been a die hard Marvel fan for almost a decade and I had never imagined Banner the way he was in the movie.  A movie actually improved on a character from the comics and that could not have happened without Ruffalo.  While he easily gives the film's best performance he still acts as an ensemble members.  He can take attention when he needs to, but he also allows the other actors to take center stage and gives them someone to play off of (especially Downey and Johansson).

While Ruffalo is not exactly playing the Hulk, there are elements of the Hulk's personality in his portrayal of Banner.  He really plays Banner as always struggling with his other persona and there are some really subtle layers.  The most intense moments of the film are when he gets angry and you believe that he could transform into the Hulk in a second.  I also credit Ruffalo for utilizing humor in all the right places and not just being tragic.  This was one of the best comic book performances of all time.

Other Great Supporting Performances:

Sacha Baron Cohen (Les Miserables), Colm Wilkinson (Les Miserables), Dave Franco (21 Jump Street), Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi), Jake Johnson (Safety Not Guaranteed), Mark Duplass (Safety Not Guaranteed), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Jeff Daniels (Looper), Frank Grillo (End of Watch), Nate Parker (Arbitrage), Skylar Astin (Pitch Perfect), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Michael Fassbender (Prometheus), John Lithgow (This is 40), Thomas Middleditch (Fun Size), Oscar Isaac (Bourne Legacy), Sam Rockwell (Seven Psychopaths), Martin Sheen (Amazing Spider-Man), Tom Cruise (Rock of Ages)

Best Picture Predictions (as of 12/13/12)

NBR, Critics Choice, SAG, Globes and several critics winners and nominees are in.  Here are my updated predictions.

The best picture race is interesting this year.  There have been many great films released but several are dropping.  Out of all of the blockbusters this year (Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit) Skyfall seems to have the best chance, but that is not going to happen.  Flight is out of the race for Best Picture, as is Promised Land which held some promise after NBR but currently holds 55% on Rotten Tomatoes and no precursors.  I had actually thought This is 40 had a slight chance with its good reviews and solid release date, but it won't get in after missing out completely at the Golden Globes.

That leaves 11 movies remaining for 10 slots.  And with the new format (a really complicated voting system that I don't understand in the slightest) anywhere between five and ten films could be nominated.  I would estimate somewhere around seven nominees this year, but it could go up to nine like last year.

The consensus seems to be around the same five movies.  Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are all locks for nominees.  Silver Linings Playbook won't have the steam to win, Weinstein really dropped the ball by changing it to a limited release.  Lincoln is still a favorite of many and is racking up precursor nominations and box-office receipts.  Argo's early release date may harm its chances at winning but it still might.  Les Mis has received its fair share of negative reviews but it also has many passionate about it.  I think that voters will respond to how emotional and epic it is.  It will be nominated no matter what, but the fact that Hooper isn't a lock for director is its main obstacle.  Then there is Zero Dark Thirty which has been nominated for everything it hasn't won.  100% on Rotten Tomatoes still and the frontrunner for Best Actress puts this at the top of the five.  The main thing that could keep it from winning is that it may be politically more divisive than Lincoln, Argo or Les Mis.  But expect something war related to win.

The other films in contention are not locks, one missed precursor could be it for any of these six films.  Life of Pi is back in the race after the Globes nominated the film, score and Ang Lee.  However it has been missing from several other precursors and isn't up for any acting nominations (which is a shame because Suraj Sharma and Irrfan Khan deliver some of the year's best performances.  Best Exotic Marigold Hotel which has reentered the race after the SAGs and the Globes.  The SAG ensemble nomination may signal its Oscar potential.  However it won't have as many passionate supporters as other movies.  The Master has remained in the race, but it is certainly not a guarantee.  The movie has largely been forgotten and seems to have done the best with critics groups, definitely needs a PGA nomination.  Django Unchained has been showing up pretty consistently.  However the topic of slavery may be a turn off to voters, as could Jamie Foxx's SNL monologue.  Moonrise Kingdom has been showing up fairly inconsistently in the precursors, so some people are remembering it but it may not be enough.  Then there is Beasts of the Southern Wild whose chances are looking slimmer and slimmer.  If does not receive notice in the next few weeks it may unfortunately be out of the race.

So my current predictions for picture are:

Zero Dark Thirty (winner)

Les Miserables

Argo

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi

Django Unchained

(Might sneak in) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

I don't see the top five of Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook being threatened.  They are all locks and one of them will win.  However how many films nominated total and which of Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild will make the cut are very much up in the air.

Nick Nolte Auditions for the Year's Biggest Films

Some of My Favorite Things of 2012

The year isn't quite over yet, but I wanted to make a list of some of the things I really enjoyed this year. I will make another list for movies later on.

The Fade Away- Garfunkel and Oates

I just discovered Riki Lindhome and Kate Micucci's band this year.  I love so many of their songs.  I Would Never, Worst Song Medley, Pregnant Woman are Smug are all genius.  But this is my favorite song of theirs from this year and features some of the most clever analogies I've ever heard.  This one that actually describes most of my romantic encounters.

The Jenna Maroney Debate- 30 Rock
Outside of the live episode 30 Rock didn't have a good last season, but much like The Office they've been getting it back together for the final season.  This may be one of the series' best episodes and it was one of the best political satires of the year.  Jack and Liz realize that Jenna holds the power to decide the fate of the election and both get to work on lobbying her.

Cartoon Network's 20th Birthday

Cable networks don't have much of an identity anymore and have lost a great deal of flair and personality.  However Cartoon Network has been getting better, mainly due to the endlessly entertaining cartoons Adventure Time and Regular Show.  But Cartoon Network got creative in celebrating its 20th anniversary with several promos featuring characters from the legacies of Hanna-Barbera, Warner Bros. and Cartoon Cartoons.

Paperman- Disney

I love Disney, I really do.  And I am always thrilled to see them experimenting with animation.  This is a sweet, simple story but the animation is truly unique and exciting.

Wolverine and the X-Men Issue 17- Jason Aaron and Mike Allred

I have yet to read Pete Milligan and Mike Allred's run on X-Force and X-Statix, but that doesn't matter because this hilarious issue stands on its own.  Coming out right between AvX and Marvel NOW this brings some much needed levity and fun back to Marvel.  The issue explains what exactly Doop is doing at Wolverine's school.  Highlight of the book is Logan's impression of Cyclops with "six-inch claws stabbed in his face."

Les Miserables Extended First Look

Word is that the movie of Les Mis is amazing.  But even if it isn't this promotional piece is just as thrilling.  It is a genius bit of advertising that sold me on the movie.  It uses the sincerity of the actors and the powerful music to outdo any trailer this year.

Tom Hanks on the Colbert Report
Tom Hanks has no shame and no ego which is great news for us, the audience.  While trying to promote Cloud Atlas (which he also did on Jimmy Fallon by performing a slam poem about Full House) the Oscar winner has fun with his public image and filmography.  Special cameo from Matt Damon who would rather, "be drunk in a movie theatre, heckling Argo."

Garden of Your Mind- Mr. Rogers

I didn't watch much of Mr. Rogers when I was a kid but now that I am older I am fascinated with him.  He is truly an inspiring human being.  This is a great way to honor his legacy, using a new method to remember the past.  I truly believe that if Fred Rogers saw this he would be impressed and inquisitive about it. 

Valley Meadows

I had the pleasure of seeing these two live, if you ever get the chance make sure you take it.  Also buy their album which was just released this year.  But this is a promo for the hip hip duo Valley Meadows, made up of MC Tom Johnson and Mr. S the substitute teacher.  Thanks to these two I am now up on the latest dance craze, "doing the Paul Reiser."

The Greatest Event in Television History

And my favorite thing ever this year has to be Adam Scott's overhyped pet project, The Greatest Event in Television History.  The special chronicles Adam Scott and Jon Hamm's efforts to do a shot by shot remake of the opening titles to Simon and Simon.  I had no idea that Simon and Simon was a show before I saw this, but it is perfect.

Best Picture Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Last year the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from five to ten movies nominated, last year only nine made it in.  This year I am predicting that it will be around 7, but here are the top ten in consideration.

Argo

Pros: Universal good reviews, surprising box-office, chances for multiple wins and nominations.

Cons: Early release dates don't always translate to wins, other films such as Lincoln or Les Mis may be fresher in voters minds by January.

Lincoln

Pros: Excellent word of mouth, baity cast and crew, political in nature

Cons: War Horse was built up for months until its release and it ended up a dud (a nominated-dud, but a dud nonetheless).  Spielberg has not made a great movie since Munich.

Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: A lot of long, heavy, epic movies this year, the smaller, lighter fare may come across as a relief.  David O. Russell had just made the Academy's radar, great word of mouth

Cons: People may not take Bradley Cooper seriously, may make fun of mental illness too much

Les Miserables

Pros: Beloved classic stage musical with a cast to die for and an Oscar winning director.  Incredibly ambitious in the way they are doing the songs and the source material is the stuff Oscar voters love

Cons: Looks to deviate from the musical by incorporating spoken word, Russell Crowe's voice may not be up to snuff, musicals have not been a guarantee in a long time, may not live up to the source material

Life of Pi

Pros: A big-budget 3D spectacle helmed by a solid, dependable director with a lot of heart behind it.  This one could get voters' heartstrings

Cons: A bomb at the box-office could harm its chances, not up for acting nominations, been a while since Ang Lee was a threat

Zero Dark Thirty

Pros: A topical follow up to The Hurt Locker in familiar territory, has the makings of a great thriller

Cons: Topical isn't always what AMPAS likes, has to walk a fine line with its politics, may be overshadowed by Argo

Moonrise Kingdom

Pros: Good box-office and better reviews, a sentimental contender.  They could acknowledge Wes Anderson like they did Terence Malick last year

Cons: Very early release, not up for acting nominations

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: This year's little indie film that could.  Emotional, provocative and beautiful, it is one of the best movies of the year and has been recognized as such

Cons: Unknown cast and director, early release date, may be too small, uncomfortable for some viewers

The Master

Pros: Has the internet behind it, an Oscar worthy cast, potential original screenplay nomination, the prestige of PTA

Cons: Early release and this movie did not make much of a splash.  Nobody has been talking about it, seems to have been eclipsed by other movies.  Also we'll see if the association with Scientology has a positive or negative effect on it.  Not a sure thing, but then again not many are this year

Flight

Pros: The return to form for both Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington.  Features great acting, special effects and writing.  Decent box-office

Cons: Not really an Oscar movie, definitely a quality one but it could easily be forgotten or not receive enough votes to make it in

The Next Ten

These are the movies to keep an eye on, have less of a chance but you never know where surprises come from

Django Unchained

Pros: Up for a few acting nominations, going to leave an impact and be a unique movie for sure

Cons: Never know how Tarantino is going to be received, this movie is still unseen, having fun with slavery may not go over well with some

Hitchcock

Pros: Movie nostalgia seemed to be present in many Oscar films last year, this could be a way of finally rewarding Alfred Hitchcock

Cons: The makeup looks incredibly goofy, may be too late of an entry, doesn't have a known director behind it

Anna Karenina

Pros: The material is Oscar bait, a unique telling of the story, potential for a best actress win, usually a British film makes the cut

Cons: Has not been received the best, may not be very good

The Avengers

Pros: Every one in Hollywood is either working on a Marvel movie or is trying to, this movie was a giant collaboration featuring several Oscar voters, also a box-office to be reckoned with

Cons: Won't be up for any other nominations in main categories, may split votes with Dark Knight Rises and it is a fun, superhero movie not an Oscar movie

Promised Land

Pros: Topical, could resonate with the heartland, Damon is usually dependable

Cons: Very political, not a movie most voters can relate to, may be seen as too light-weight, too late of an entry

Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Pros: Terrific box office, veteran British actors, has had some remarkable staying power

Cons: Early release, light-weight, small film

The Hobbit

Pros: Peter Jackson's return to Middle-Earth, one of the only big-budget franchises to be rewarded by the Academy

Cons: The Lord of the Rings trilogy was influential, but that was ten years ago this may not seem as fresh now, big-budget fantasy doesn't seem to be in the zeitgeist anymore, competition with Avengers and others

The Sessions

Pros: Three potential acting nominations and a screenplay nominations keep it in consideration

Cons: Decent word of mouth, but hasn't made a huge impact, could easily be forgotten

Quartet

Pros: Getting a late push, Academy loves actor turned directors

Cons: Very light-weight, won't be widely seen

Skyfall

Pros: 50th Anniversary of Hollywood's favorite franchise and this entry has been received surprisingly well

Cons: It is a Bond movie and as good as it is there are plenty of flaws