Best Things About This Year's Oscar Race

Tomorrow is the night of the Academy Awards.  As in any awards race it gets a little nasty.  Especially online where movie buffs put full support for their favorite films and talk all kinds of smack about the competition.  During the Oscars fully expect to see Facebook posts from people who celebrate their films that won, victimize themselves over the ones that didn't and curse the winners they did not like.

But amidst all of this intense competition there is a lot to admire about this year's Oscar race.  This has been the best batch of nominees that I have seen.  It is an unpredictable race with a lot of great qualities.  So instead of bashing movies that threaten the movies I love, let's really take a look at what an incredible year for movies 2012 was and how the Oscars are really reflecting that.

10. Perfect Host

The Oscars are the biggest event in Hollywood yet they rarely take a chance on their host.  They usually play it safe with TV personalities that we see every day.  But the choice of Seth MacFarlane is incredibly inspired.  He is a honed showman that we don't often get to see.  He is a personality that we only get small doses of, and in his perfect SNL gig and fun 2009 variety special, he has proven that he does not disappoint.  Also MacFarlane was a driving force behind one of the best movies from 2012.  In celebrating the best of film it makes sense to have somebody active and relevant up front.  Also he is not just a performer but also a producer, director and writer.  He is not going to just do bits that other people wrote for him, he is going to be able to understand those bits and put his personal stamp on them.  After Tina Fey and Amy Poehler did a perfect job at the Globes, I saw a lot of people online say that MacFarlane has a lot to live up to and will fail in comparison.  But it isn't a competition, awards shows are just getting smart about using smart people.

9. Creativity in Acting Nominations

Acting nominations are usually pretty boring.  They are actors who associate themselves with movies who are designed to win Oscars.  Usually it seems like actors get nominations because they are supposed to.  But this year voters seemed to think outside of the box.  Even if they did not care for The Master they still nominated three unique performances.  Denzel Washington earned a nomination based on his acting not his film.  The best actress race usually is exclusive to attractive starlets that paid their dues, but young Quvenzhane Wallis and senior Emmanuelle Riva made it in.  With Riva even having a chance at winning.  Then there is Jackie Weaver, whose nomination was very unexpected.  She had no big Oscar moments, didn't seem to be campaigning and was unnoticed by most precursors.  However she gave a great performance that benefited a great movie.  She was nominated for the performance, not the politics and that sadly does not happen much.

8. An Unsure Outcome

Nobody knows nothing.  Even Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway have room for doubt.  Best picture could go to Argo, but it could still go to another movie.  There are four directors and four leading actresses who could conceivably win in their perspective categories.  Not to mention best supporting actor with five previous winners that seem to be on equal footing.  Even animated feature is not a sure thing.  Not an easy race to bet on, but definitely an exciting one to watch.

7. Precursors Spreading the Love

One of the main reasons that this race is difficult to predict is that the precursors are all over the place with their nominations and winners.  Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, John Hawkes and others were consistently recognized while Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild were not.  A huge shift from previous years where usually only one or two movies win everything.  Which is how it should be.  Why should one movie win every award if there are so many awards?  Seems like these voting bodies are focusing on rewarding movies rather than only serving to predict the Oscars.

6. Frontrunner Without a Director Nomination

Outside of Driving Miss Daisy it is difficult to name a movie that won best picture without being nominated for best director.  It is even difficult to to find a movie that wins best picture without winning best director.  But Argo could very well change that.  Even if Argo loses tomorrow night, it is still incredible that it held the frontrunner spot for so long.  Best Picture should not be about most nominations and wins, it should be about Best Picture.  Which many, including myself feel Argo is.

5. Great Movies Did Not Get Nominated for Oscars

I think it is a great sign for the film industry when great movies miss out on Oscar nominations.  Great movies should not be limited to ten a year.  21 Jump Street, Safety Not Guaranteed, Looper, Rise of the Guardians, Cabin in the Woods, Magic Mike, People Like Us, Pitch Perfect, End of Watch, Dredd, Wanderlust, Chronicle, The Grey, Arbitrage and many others were not nominated for any Oscars.  Many of these are not Oscar movies, but that does not diminish their quality.

4. Great Movies Were Nominated

Personally I did not love all of the nominated movies.  But I have to hand it to the Oscars for nominating the best of 2012.  Even if I thought Django and especially Lincoln were overrated, they are still impeccably crafted films and I understand the audiences that love them.  There were no movies as bad as War Horse, overrated as The Reader or somehow included like Blind Side.  These are all some of the best of film.

3. Lack of Critical Consensus

Les Miserables was nominated for best picture and was included on many worst of 2012 lists.  People don't like Amour, they did not get Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Lincoln, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and the rest all have incredible detractors.  Good.  A great movie is not one that everybody loves.  A great movie is not one that is critic proof.  A great movie should have multiple interpretations and be divisive.  The nine best pictures were not made to please everybody.  They were made to tell specific stories, many of these are for different audiences.  I am very happy to see that people like and dislike these films on their own terms rather than just liking something because it is Oscar bait.

2. Controversy Abounds

There is a lot of controversy around Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained.  Even Lincoln and Argo have brought about debates.  Without getting into my personal views on these movies I think it is great that movies are tackling tough subjects.  Movies last year did not play it safe, many took risks (Les Mis for all of its detractors took risks).  But I think the best part about the controversial nature of these movies is that they are causing audiences to think.  These movies are not passive experiences, people are struggling with them and articulating their feelings.  Which is exactly the type of movies that should be recognized.

1. Audiences are Watching These Movies

People say that they don't make smart mature movies anymore.  They say that audiences do not go to theatres anymore.  But the box-office totals of this year's nominees match their critical reception.  Combined box-office totals add up to $415 million dollars, which is 35% of 2012's gross.  That is astonishing considering how Oscar movies are traditionally some of the lowest attended.  Lincoln is the biggest success but they all made a considerable amount of money.  Even Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are successful.  This is proof that audiences support good movies.  Pay attention Hollywood.

Predicted 2012 Oscar Winners

All of the precursors are in.  The Writers' Guild of America, Directors' Guild of America, BAFTAs and Annie Awards are the only ones that have not announced winners.  Here is how the race is looking a month away from the Oscars and it is a complicated race.  Whereas the last number of years there were very few surprises, this year is almost impossible to predict.  Which makes it much more fun.

Best Foreign Film

This one is easy to predict this year.  Amour is was nominated here and best picture (and director, actress, screenplay).  It should have the same effect as when Up and Toy Story 3 where nominated for animated feature and best picture.  However foreign film has often not rewarded the frontrunner (the voting system and body is different in that category).  Kon-Tiki is the name I have seen pop up as a potential upset, but put your money on Amour.  It will be the film's only win of the night.

Best Animated Feature

There is no good precursor to predict animated feature.  Unlike WGA, PGA, DGA and SAG the people voting for the Annies are not many of the same people voting for the Oscars.  I would not be surprised it they rewarded Rise of the Guardians, which was snubbed for an Oscar nomination.  All of the other precursors have been split pretty evenly among Brave, Wreck-It Ralph, ParaNorman and Frankenweenie.  ParaNorman's chance is that Disney is campaigning against itself.  It is also notable that all three stop-motion films from 2012 were nominated, which could be a sign in favor of Frankenweenie.  I would wager a guess that a sizable amount of voters belong to Pixar due to their many wins and nominations, however that did not help Cars or Cars 2.  I really think it comes down to which movie that Disney is pushing the hardest.  I want to believe that Wreck-It Ralph will win, but it is a tight race.  As for right now I am predicting Wreck-It Ralph, because these are animation professionals voting.  However don't be surprised if stop-motion is rewarded or Pixar gets it by default.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Beasts of the Southern Wild was a very welcome nomination, but despite its recognition by the Academy the four surprise nominations are its rewards.  Life of Pi most likely won't have enough steam to win in this category, but it has the most to gain from a potential three-way vote split.  Lincoln has done the best in the precursors, but the movie is looking less and less like a sure thing.  Argo is racing back to the top across the board, but Silver Linings Playbook has remained pretty strong in its position.  This is the category that could tell us the winner, between the three.  I will rely on my heart and stick with Chris Terrio's Argo, but definitely not a sure thing.

Best Original Screenplay

Flight is won't win.  I would say that Moonrise Kingdom has a slight chance, but it doesn't look like Wes Anderson's year.  Amour seems to be loved by the Academy this year, maybe this could be its second Oscar but it is a longshot (although certainly a plausible one).  Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty are certainly the main contenders, but there is a lot working against both.  There is controversy surrounding both films which seems to have hurt their chances at winning in other categories.  Although Zero Dark Thirty has been spoken against by actors, writers think differently than political celebrities.  It is significant that Django was not nominated for a WGA, it is looking like Zero Dark Thirty will win that important precursor.  I will go with Zero Dark Thirty for the win at this point (most likely the movie's only Oscar win), but Django will not be far behind.

Best Supporting Actor

This is the toughest one to predict.  I would say that Philip Seymour Hoffman is the only one who doesn't have a chance at winning.  All of these five have been winning and nominated for precursors pretty evenly.  Arkin is certainly a weaker nominee, but if Argo sweeps he could get in.  De Niro likewise, it does not seem like it is his year for a third win.  However with Streep last year and most likely Day-Lewis this year it is not out of the question.  Waltz was the most popular part of his film, but he won his first Oscar only a couple of years ago.  Jones on the other hand won back in 1993, and just won the SAG.  However the Oscars and SAG rarely match with each other completely (2004, 2009, 2010 were recent exceptions).  If there is a discrepancy, it would be in this category.  I am predicting Jones with much hesitation, don't bet much money on this category if you are betting.

Best Supporting Actress

The only things standing in Anne Hathaway's way are Sally Field and Amy Adams.  Adams is on her fourth nomination, career wise she should be due for a win.  And Field is an industry legend returning for the first time to the big screen in a decade.  Despite the strength of these two performers Anne Hathaway is one of the few sure things in the Oscar race this year.  There is a very slight chance for an upset, but Hathaway is going to win.

Best Actor

Part of still thinks, Daniel Day-Lewis will not get a third Oscar so soon after his second.  It took the much more prolific Streep and Nicholson decades to accomplish that feat.  But he keeps winning everything, this is a train that can't be stopped.  There is still a slight chance for the others.  Jackman is a previous host, incredibly likable and well-liked, he is still a longshot.  Phoenix received a nomination against incredible odds and his performance has ardent supporters.  The main threat to Day-Lewis though is Bradley Cooper who's movie is gaining momentum and is fresh in people's minds.  This is the kind of race where Harvey Weinstein steps in and works some last minute magic.  Unless Weinstein is pushing Phoenix harder (which would not the smartest move), Cooper very well could benefit from Harvey's campaigning.  I am still going with Day-Lewis, but Cooper is an interesting potential upset.

Best Actress

Riva and Wallis get to share a piece of Oscar trivia as the oldest and youngest nominees in history, but that is the furthest they go.  This race has been between Chastain and Lawrence for a long time.  Lawrence is still very young for a win.  People seemed to have reacted to her Golden Globe acceptance speech poorly (although not her uncomfortably unfunny SNL monologue).  But she did just win the SAG over Chastain.  Zero Dark Thirty's chances for Oscars are hurt by the actor's branch.  Despite being the older of the two there are many that may not vote for her.  If there is a vote split it will be in this category, I assume that Watts being the most well known nominee would have the most to gain.  But I am predicting Lawrence to win.  Her film managed the rare four category nominations, it needs to win in one.

Best Director

I really need to see who the DGA awards before I can really make an accurate predictions (I wouldn't doubt that they award the snubbed Affleck).  Haneke and Zeitlin were huge upset nominations that won't have the strength to pull off a win.  Haneke being a veteran over novice Zeitlin has the edge though.  The race is between Russell, Lee and Spielberg.  It is significant that DGA nominated Hooper, Bigelow and Affleck over Russell.  Lee only has one win while Spielberg has two.  If Life of Pi wins a major award it very well could be here.  It looks like there will be a vote split between picture and director this year.  All of these directors are well liked and respected in the industry but none of them are popular as directors this year.  I am going to go with the Weinstein factor and predict David O. Russell for a first Oscar nomination.  He is still remembered for his conflicts on earlier films, but people have seemed to have gotten over them.  Would not count out Spielberg and Lee, but Russell has the slight edge that they don't.

Best Picture

Les Miserables did not land with Academy voters.  Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour won't get further than a nomination.  The controversy surrounding Django Unchained and especially Zero Dark Thirty will keep them from being contenders as winners.  Life of Pi is waiting to potentially clean up if there is a major vote split or sudden shift in favor, however without any acting nominations it will remain a best picture nominee.  Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are the only two that have the necessary picture, director, acting, writing and editing nominations that every Oscar winner since 1989 has had.  Lincoln certainly has the prestige, but Silver Linings has the feel good factor that the academy has favored in recent years.  Silver Linings is also backed by Harvey Weinstein who managed to bet a Spielberg favorite for picture in 1998.  However Argo currently has the momentum.  Despite lacking the crucial directing nomination Affleck's snub could easily be explained as missing by a margin.  I am predicting Argo to do the impossible and win best picture of 2012.