Predicted 2012 Oscar Winners

All of the precursors are in.  The Writers' Guild of America, Directors' Guild of America, BAFTAs and Annie Awards are the only ones that have not announced winners.  Here is how the race is looking a month away from the Oscars and it is a complicated race.  Whereas the last number of years there were very few surprises, this year is almost impossible to predict.  Which makes it much more fun.

Best Foreign Film

This one is easy to predict this year.  Amour is was nominated here and best picture (and director, actress, screenplay).  It should have the same effect as when Up and Toy Story 3 where nominated for animated feature and best picture.  However foreign film has often not rewarded the frontrunner (the voting system and body is different in that category).  Kon-Tiki is the name I have seen pop up as a potential upset, but put your money on Amour.  It will be the film's only win of the night.

Best Animated Feature

There is no good precursor to predict animated feature.  Unlike WGA, PGA, DGA and SAG the people voting for the Annies are not many of the same people voting for the Oscars.  I would not be surprised it they rewarded Rise of the Guardians, which was snubbed for an Oscar nomination.  All of the other precursors have been split pretty evenly among Brave, Wreck-It Ralph, ParaNorman and Frankenweenie.  ParaNorman's chance is that Disney is campaigning against itself.  It is also notable that all three stop-motion films from 2012 were nominated, which could be a sign in favor of Frankenweenie.  I would wager a guess that a sizable amount of voters belong to Pixar due to their many wins and nominations, however that did not help Cars or Cars 2.  I really think it comes down to which movie that Disney is pushing the hardest.  I want to believe that Wreck-It Ralph will win, but it is a tight race.  As for right now I am predicting Wreck-It Ralph, because these are animation professionals voting.  However don't be surprised if stop-motion is rewarded or Pixar gets it by default.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Beasts of the Southern Wild was a very welcome nomination, but despite its recognition by the Academy the four surprise nominations are its rewards.  Life of Pi most likely won't have enough steam to win in this category, but it has the most to gain from a potential three-way vote split.  Lincoln has done the best in the precursors, but the movie is looking less and less like a sure thing.  Argo is racing back to the top across the board, but Silver Linings Playbook has remained pretty strong in its position.  This is the category that could tell us the winner, between the three.  I will rely on my heart and stick with Chris Terrio's Argo, but definitely not a sure thing.

Best Original Screenplay

Flight is won't win.  I would say that Moonrise Kingdom has a slight chance, but it doesn't look like Wes Anderson's year.  Amour seems to be loved by the Academy this year, maybe this could be its second Oscar but it is a longshot (although certainly a plausible one).  Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty are certainly the main contenders, but there is a lot working against both.  There is controversy surrounding both films which seems to have hurt their chances at winning in other categories.  Although Zero Dark Thirty has been spoken against by actors, writers think differently than political celebrities.  It is significant that Django was not nominated for a WGA, it is looking like Zero Dark Thirty will win that important precursor.  I will go with Zero Dark Thirty for the win at this point (most likely the movie's only Oscar win), but Django will not be far behind.

Best Supporting Actor

This is the toughest one to predict.  I would say that Philip Seymour Hoffman is the only one who doesn't have a chance at winning.  All of these five have been winning and nominated for precursors pretty evenly.  Arkin is certainly a weaker nominee, but if Argo sweeps he could get in.  De Niro likewise, it does not seem like it is his year for a third win.  However with Streep last year and most likely Day-Lewis this year it is not out of the question.  Waltz was the most popular part of his film, but he won his first Oscar only a couple of years ago.  Jones on the other hand won back in 1993, and just won the SAG.  However the Oscars and SAG rarely match with each other completely (2004, 2009, 2010 were recent exceptions).  If there is a discrepancy, it would be in this category.  I am predicting Jones with much hesitation, don't bet much money on this category if you are betting.

Best Supporting Actress

The only things standing in Anne Hathaway's way are Sally Field and Amy Adams.  Adams is on her fourth nomination, career wise she should be due for a win.  And Field is an industry legend returning for the first time to the big screen in a decade.  Despite the strength of these two performers Anne Hathaway is one of the few sure things in the Oscar race this year.  There is a very slight chance for an upset, but Hathaway is going to win.

Best Actor

Part of still thinks, Daniel Day-Lewis will not get a third Oscar so soon after his second.  It took the much more prolific Streep and Nicholson decades to accomplish that feat.  But he keeps winning everything, this is a train that can't be stopped.  There is still a slight chance for the others.  Jackman is a previous host, incredibly likable and well-liked, he is still a longshot.  Phoenix received a nomination against incredible odds and his performance has ardent supporters.  The main threat to Day-Lewis though is Bradley Cooper who's movie is gaining momentum and is fresh in people's minds.  This is the kind of race where Harvey Weinstein steps in and works some last minute magic.  Unless Weinstein is pushing Phoenix harder (which would not the smartest move), Cooper very well could benefit from Harvey's campaigning.  I am still going with Day-Lewis, but Cooper is an interesting potential upset.

Best Actress

Riva and Wallis get to share a piece of Oscar trivia as the oldest and youngest nominees in history, but that is the furthest they go.  This race has been between Chastain and Lawrence for a long time.  Lawrence is still very young for a win.  People seemed to have reacted to her Golden Globe acceptance speech poorly (although not her uncomfortably unfunny SNL monologue).  But she did just win the SAG over Chastain.  Zero Dark Thirty's chances for Oscars are hurt by the actor's branch.  Despite being the older of the two there are many that may not vote for her.  If there is a vote split it will be in this category, I assume that Watts being the most well known nominee would have the most to gain.  But I am predicting Lawrence to win.  Her film managed the rare four category nominations, it needs to win in one.

Best Director

I really need to see who the DGA awards before I can really make an accurate predictions (I wouldn't doubt that they award the snubbed Affleck).  Haneke and Zeitlin were huge upset nominations that won't have the strength to pull off a win.  Haneke being a veteran over novice Zeitlin has the edge though.  The race is between Russell, Lee and Spielberg.  It is significant that DGA nominated Hooper, Bigelow and Affleck over Russell.  Lee only has one win while Spielberg has two.  If Life of Pi wins a major award it very well could be here.  It looks like there will be a vote split between picture and director this year.  All of these directors are well liked and respected in the industry but none of them are popular as directors this year.  I am going to go with the Weinstein factor and predict David O. Russell for a first Oscar nomination.  He is still remembered for his conflicts on earlier films, but people have seemed to have gotten over them.  Would not count out Spielberg and Lee, but Russell has the slight edge that they don't.

Best Picture

Les Miserables did not land with Academy voters.  Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour won't get further than a nomination.  The controversy surrounding Django Unchained and especially Zero Dark Thirty will keep them from being contenders as winners.  Life of Pi is waiting to potentially clean up if there is a major vote split or sudden shift in favor, however without any acting nominations it will remain a best picture nominee.  Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are the only two that have the necessary picture, director, acting, writing and editing nominations that every Oscar winner since 1989 has had.  Lincoln certainly has the prestige, but Silver Linings has the feel good factor that the academy has favored in recent years.  Silver Linings is also backed by Harvey Weinstein who managed to bet a Spielberg favorite for picture in 1998.  However Argo currently has the momentum.  Despite lacking the crucial directing nomination Affleck's snub could easily be explained as missing by a margin.  I am predicting Argo to do the impossible and win best picture of 2012.

Best Picture Predictions (as of 12/13/12)

NBR, Critics Choice, SAG, Globes and several critics winners and nominees are in.  Here are my updated predictions.

The best picture race is interesting this year.  There have been many great films released but several are dropping.  Out of all of the blockbusters this year (Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit) Skyfall seems to have the best chance, but that is not going to happen.  Flight is out of the race for Best Picture, as is Promised Land which held some promise after NBR but currently holds 55% on Rotten Tomatoes and no precursors.  I had actually thought This is 40 had a slight chance with its good reviews and solid release date, but it won't get in after missing out completely at the Golden Globes.

That leaves 11 movies remaining for 10 slots.  And with the new format (a really complicated voting system that I don't understand in the slightest) anywhere between five and ten films could be nominated.  I would estimate somewhere around seven nominees this year, but it could go up to nine like last year.

The consensus seems to be around the same five movies.  Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are all locks for nominees.  Silver Linings Playbook won't have the steam to win, Weinstein really dropped the ball by changing it to a limited release.  Lincoln is still a favorite of many and is racking up precursor nominations and box-office receipts.  Argo's early release date may harm its chances at winning but it still might.  Les Mis has received its fair share of negative reviews but it also has many passionate about it.  I think that voters will respond to how emotional and epic it is.  It will be nominated no matter what, but the fact that Hooper isn't a lock for director is its main obstacle.  Then there is Zero Dark Thirty which has been nominated for everything it hasn't won.  100% on Rotten Tomatoes still and the frontrunner for Best Actress puts this at the top of the five.  The main thing that could keep it from winning is that it may be politically more divisive than Lincoln, Argo or Les Mis.  But expect something war related to win.

The other films in contention are not locks, one missed precursor could be it for any of these six films.  Life of Pi is back in the race after the Globes nominated the film, score and Ang Lee.  However it has been missing from several other precursors and isn't up for any acting nominations (which is a shame because Suraj Sharma and Irrfan Khan deliver some of the year's best performances.  Best Exotic Marigold Hotel which has reentered the race after the SAGs and the Globes.  The SAG ensemble nomination may signal its Oscar potential.  However it won't have as many passionate supporters as other movies.  The Master has remained in the race, but it is certainly not a guarantee.  The movie has largely been forgotten and seems to have done the best with critics groups, definitely needs a PGA nomination.  Django Unchained has been showing up pretty consistently.  However the topic of slavery may be a turn off to voters, as could Jamie Foxx's SNL monologue.  Moonrise Kingdom has been showing up fairly inconsistently in the precursors, so some people are remembering it but it may not be enough.  Then there is Beasts of the Southern Wild whose chances are looking slimmer and slimmer.  If does not receive notice in the next few weeks it may unfortunately be out of the race.

So my current predictions for picture are:

Zero Dark Thirty (winner)

Les Miserables

Argo

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi

Django Unchained

(Might sneak in) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

I don't see the top five of Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook being threatened.  They are all locks and one of them will win.  However how many films nominated total and which of Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild will make the cut are very much up in the air.

Best Picture Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Last year the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from five to ten movies nominated, last year only nine made it in.  This year I am predicting that it will be around 7, but here are the top ten in consideration.

Argo

Pros: Universal good reviews, surprising box-office, chances for multiple wins and nominations.

Cons: Early release dates don't always translate to wins, other films such as Lincoln or Les Mis may be fresher in voters minds by January.

Lincoln

Pros: Excellent word of mouth, baity cast and crew, political in nature

Cons: War Horse was built up for months until its release and it ended up a dud (a nominated-dud, but a dud nonetheless).  Spielberg has not made a great movie since Munich.

Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: A lot of long, heavy, epic movies this year, the smaller, lighter fare may come across as a relief.  David O. Russell had just made the Academy's radar, great word of mouth

Cons: People may not take Bradley Cooper seriously, may make fun of mental illness too much

Les Miserables

Pros: Beloved classic stage musical with a cast to die for and an Oscar winning director.  Incredibly ambitious in the way they are doing the songs and the source material is the stuff Oscar voters love

Cons: Looks to deviate from the musical by incorporating spoken word, Russell Crowe's voice may not be up to snuff, musicals have not been a guarantee in a long time, may not live up to the source material

Life of Pi

Pros: A big-budget 3D spectacle helmed by a solid, dependable director with a lot of heart behind it.  This one could get voters' heartstrings

Cons: A bomb at the box-office could harm its chances, not up for acting nominations, been a while since Ang Lee was a threat

Zero Dark Thirty

Pros: A topical follow up to The Hurt Locker in familiar territory, has the makings of a great thriller

Cons: Topical isn't always what AMPAS likes, has to walk a fine line with its politics, may be overshadowed by Argo

Moonrise Kingdom

Pros: Good box-office and better reviews, a sentimental contender.  They could acknowledge Wes Anderson like they did Terence Malick last year

Cons: Very early release, not up for acting nominations

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: This year's little indie film that could.  Emotional, provocative and beautiful, it is one of the best movies of the year and has been recognized as such

Cons: Unknown cast and director, early release date, may be too small, uncomfortable for some viewers

The Master

Pros: Has the internet behind it, an Oscar worthy cast, potential original screenplay nomination, the prestige of PTA

Cons: Early release and this movie did not make much of a splash.  Nobody has been talking about it, seems to have been eclipsed by other movies.  Also we'll see if the association with Scientology has a positive or negative effect on it.  Not a sure thing, but then again not many are this year

Flight

Pros: The return to form for both Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington.  Features great acting, special effects and writing.  Decent box-office

Cons: Not really an Oscar movie, definitely a quality one but it could easily be forgotten or not receive enough votes to make it in

The Next Ten

These are the movies to keep an eye on, have less of a chance but you never know where surprises come from

Django Unchained

Pros: Up for a few acting nominations, going to leave an impact and be a unique movie for sure

Cons: Never know how Tarantino is going to be received, this movie is still unseen, having fun with slavery may not go over well with some

Hitchcock

Pros: Movie nostalgia seemed to be present in many Oscar films last year, this could be a way of finally rewarding Alfred Hitchcock

Cons: The makeup looks incredibly goofy, may be too late of an entry, doesn't have a known director behind it

Anna Karenina

Pros: The material is Oscar bait, a unique telling of the story, potential for a best actress win, usually a British film makes the cut

Cons: Has not been received the best, may not be very good

The Avengers

Pros: Every one in Hollywood is either working on a Marvel movie or is trying to, this movie was a giant collaboration featuring several Oscar voters, also a box-office to be reckoned with

Cons: Won't be up for any other nominations in main categories, may split votes with Dark Knight Rises and it is a fun, superhero movie not an Oscar movie

Promised Land

Pros: Topical, could resonate with the heartland, Damon is usually dependable

Cons: Very political, not a movie most voters can relate to, may be seen as too light-weight, too late of an entry

Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Pros: Terrific box office, veteran British actors, has had some remarkable staying power

Cons: Early release, light-weight, small film

The Hobbit

Pros: Peter Jackson's return to Middle-Earth, one of the only big-budget franchises to be rewarded by the Academy

Cons: The Lord of the Rings trilogy was influential, but that was ten years ago this may not seem as fresh now, big-budget fantasy doesn't seem to be in the zeitgeist anymore, competition with Avengers and others

The Sessions

Pros: Three potential acting nominations and a screenplay nominations keep it in consideration

Cons: Decent word of mouth, but hasn't made a huge impact, could easily be forgotten

Quartet

Pros: Getting a late push, Academy loves actor turned directors

Cons: Very light-weight, won't be widely seen

Skyfall

Pros: 50th Anniversary of Hollywood's favorite franchise and this entry has been received surprisingly well

Cons: It is a Bond movie and as good as it is there are plenty of flaws