Producers Guild Shakes Up Best Picture Race

Been a few weeks since my last Oscar predictions.  The Producers Guild is usually a good gage for the best picture race.  Last year seven of their nominations matched the Academy's (Bridesmaids, Dragon Tattoo and Ides of March instead of Tree of Life and Extremely Loud), the year before they were only one film off (The Town instead of Winter's Bone) and in 2009 they were two off (Star Trek and Invictus instead of A Serious Man and Blind Side).

Included in the nominations are the locks of Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook.  The best picture winner is still one of these five.

Life of Pi looks to be a lock now too, along with the financially successful Django Unchained.  Both had good showings at the Globes, several critics groups and now here.  They are becoming much more stable predictions.

Receiving boosts from the PGA are the early releases of  Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Moonrise has been popping up infrequently in precursors but this nod bodes well for the small film.  Southern Wild on the other hand has its first big precursor nod.  A few weeks ago I was almost ready to count it out of the race, but it may have more support than I had initially thought.

The film with that was helped the most by these nominations however is Skyfall.  It looks like there is a sizable chance for the Academy celebrating Bond's 50th Anniversary and one of his best films.  It is the PGA nominated film with the lowest chances at an Oscar nomination, but the film keeps popping up in precursors.  With this and Bardem's SAG nomination it looks like voters are taking this one seriously.

There are two movies that are hurt by these nominations.  Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a contender when SAG and Globes announced their nominations, but a SAG ensemble nomination does not always equate to serious contender (Hairspray and 3:10 to Yuma).  Also a Globe nominated comedy is not the same as a Globe nominated drama.  I would say that the chances for Best Exotic to surprise with a best picture nomination is getting slimmer.

And almost out of the race is The Master.  It has not done well with the Guilds and the Globes.  Critics groups have been its only real Oscar attention, and critics aren't academy members.  Also I am sure Weinstein is campaigning Silver Linings and Django over his earlier, smaller release.  I know it has its ardent supporters, but be careful in predicting The Master for an Oscar.

So right now I would predict that the Best Picture nominations will be:

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

with Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild as potential upsets.  I am not discounting Skyfall yet either.  It has been an interesting race, there may be some surprises this year too, you never know.

Best Picture Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Last year the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from five to ten movies nominated, last year only nine made it in.  This year I am predicting that it will be around 7, but here are the top ten in consideration.

Argo

Pros: Universal good reviews, surprising box-office, chances for multiple wins and nominations.

Cons: Early release dates don't always translate to wins, other films such as Lincoln or Les Mis may be fresher in voters minds by January.

Lincoln

Pros: Excellent word of mouth, baity cast and crew, political in nature

Cons: War Horse was built up for months until its release and it ended up a dud (a nominated-dud, but a dud nonetheless).  Spielberg has not made a great movie since Munich.

Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: A lot of long, heavy, epic movies this year, the smaller, lighter fare may come across as a relief.  David O. Russell had just made the Academy's radar, great word of mouth

Cons: People may not take Bradley Cooper seriously, may make fun of mental illness too much

Les Miserables

Pros: Beloved classic stage musical with a cast to die for and an Oscar winning director.  Incredibly ambitious in the way they are doing the songs and the source material is the stuff Oscar voters love

Cons: Looks to deviate from the musical by incorporating spoken word, Russell Crowe's voice may not be up to snuff, musicals have not been a guarantee in a long time, may not live up to the source material

Life of Pi

Pros: A big-budget 3D spectacle helmed by a solid, dependable director with a lot of heart behind it.  This one could get voters' heartstrings

Cons: A bomb at the box-office could harm its chances, not up for acting nominations, been a while since Ang Lee was a threat

Zero Dark Thirty

Pros: A topical follow up to The Hurt Locker in familiar territory, has the makings of a great thriller

Cons: Topical isn't always what AMPAS likes, has to walk a fine line with its politics, may be overshadowed by Argo

Moonrise Kingdom

Pros: Good box-office and better reviews, a sentimental contender.  They could acknowledge Wes Anderson like they did Terence Malick last year

Cons: Very early release, not up for acting nominations

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: This year's little indie film that could.  Emotional, provocative and beautiful, it is one of the best movies of the year and has been recognized as such

Cons: Unknown cast and director, early release date, may be too small, uncomfortable for some viewers

The Master

Pros: Has the internet behind it, an Oscar worthy cast, potential original screenplay nomination, the prestige of PTA

Cons: Early release and this movie did not make much of a splash.  Nobody has been talking about it, seems to have been eclipsed by other movies.  Also we'll see if the association with Scientology has a positive or negative effect on it.  Not a sure thing, but then again not many are this year

Flight

Pros: The return to form for both Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington.  Features great acting, special effects and writing.  Decent box-office

Cons: Not really an Oscar movie, definitely a quality one but it could easily be forgotten or not receive enough votes to make it in

The Next Ten

These are the movies to keep an eye on, have less of a chance but you never know where surprises come from

Django Unchained

Pros: Up for a few acting nominations, going to leave an impact and be a unique movie for sure

Cons: Never know how Tarantino is going to be received, this movie is still unseen, having fun with slavery may not go over well with some

Hitchcock

Pros: Movie nostalgia seemed to be present in many Oscar films last year, this could be a way of finally rewarding Alfred Hitchcock

Cons: The makeup looks incredibly goofy, may be too late of an entry, doesn't have a known director behind it

Anna Karenina

Pros: The material is Oscar bait, a unique telling of the story, potential for a best actress win, usually a British film makes the cut

Cons: Has not been received the best, may not be very good

The Avengers

Pros: Every one in Hollywood is either working on a Marvel movie or is trying to, this movie was a giant collaboration featuring several Oscar voters, also a box-office to be reckoned with

Cons: Won't be up for any other nominations in main categories, may split votes with Dark Knight Rises and it is a fun, superhero movie not an Oscar movie

Promised Land

Pros: Topical, could resonate with the heartland, Damon is usually dependable

Cons: Very political, not a movie most voters can relate to, may be seen as too light-weight, too late of an entry

Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Pros: Terrific box office, veteran British actors, has had some remarkable staying power

Cons: Early release, light-weight, small film

The Hobbit

Pros: Peter Jackson's return to Middle-Earth, one of the only big-budget franchises to be rewarded by the Academy

Cons: The Lord of the Rings trilogy was influential, but that was ten years ago this may not seem as fresh now, big-budget fantasy doesn't seem to be in the zeitgeist anymore, competition with Avengers and others

The Sessions

Pros: Three potential acting nominations and a screenplay nominations keep it in consideration

Cons: Decent word of mouth, but hasn't made a huge impact, could easily be forgotten

Quartet

Pros: Getting a late push, Academy loves actor turned directors

Cons: Very light-weight, won't be widely seen

Skyfall

Pros: 50th Anniversary of Hollywood's favorite franchise and this entry has been received surprisingly well

Cons: It is a Bond movie and as good as it is there are plenty of flaws