Non-Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

The Academy nominated all previous winners this year: Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz.  Out of these I would actually pick Arkin as my favorite.  He had some surprisingly subtle layers in a fairly small role.  I also really liked Hoffman and Waltz.  DeNiro and Jones gave their best performances in way too long, but they weren't among my personal picks.  There were so many great supporting actors this year, but I narrowed down the five that meant the most to me.  Here are my picks for the Best Supporting Actors Not Nominated for an Academy Award:

Albert Brooks, This is 40

I can't think of a better fit for Judd Apatow's style than the great Albert Brooks.  Apatow specializes in unlikable and harsh characters and Brooks embraces those qualities.  He can play up despicable as funny and relatable without needing redeeming moments.  Brooks steals every moment on screen and also helps to elevate Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann's performances.  Nobody makes unlikable more likable than Albert Brooks in one of his best performances ever.  He has what very few other comedic performers have: sincerity and honesty, even if the sincerity and honesty is not comfortable or nice.

James Badge Dale, Flight

This is the definition of a one scene wonder.  Maybe I should have mentioned a performer with more screen time, but I love these little bit parts.  Dale couldn't have been on screen for more than five minutes, yet he leaves a strong impact.  He plays a man dying from cancer who interrupts Denzel and Kelly Reilly's meeting in the stairwell.  They are both frustrated with their current situation and are at different stages of their addictions, but Dale enters and ups the ante with a more depressing story about situations he can't control.  There is so much frustration to him but also a sense of carelessness.  When you can steal a scene away from Denzel Washington by being more commanding you deserve attention.

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

I am so happy to see Beasts of the Southern Wild receive four big unexpected nominations, but it still missed out on a few.  The main one was Dwight Henry for supporting actor.  Henry is a novice actor who portrays the most difficult character of the year.  The character is difficult to like and warm up to, but there is a respect you feel for him even if you don't understand or agree with him.  Henry can come across as neglectful and at times abusive towards his young daughter, but there is a pride to him and no matter what parental standards he fails he still loves little Hushpuppy.  His character demands respect and the movie is very much on his terms.  He represents what a certain way of life can mean to a person.  Some of the most difficult scenes I've ever scene are when he struggles to communicate with his daughter and tries to prepare her to survive without him.  This is one of the great movie fathers and unquestionably one of the best performances of 2012.

Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Casting a boyish 30-year-old as Marius was the best decision the filmmakers could make regarding the character.  Redmayne brings a great deal of loss and maturity along with the character's innocent idealism.  This character was not one I was looking forward to, but his sorrowful rendition of Empty Chairs was the most moving part of the film.  He can transition from powerful and grand to small and personal with ease.  He also made the love story with Cosette work due to his charisma and likability.  I see a bright future for Eddie Redmayne.

Mark Ruffalo, The Avengers

When I saw that Ruffalo was cast as Bruce Banner I thought it was a genius move.  But I did not anticipate the way he would interpret the character.  I have been a die hard Marvel fan for almost a decade and I had never imagined Banner the way he was in the movie.  A movie actually improved on a character from the comics and that could not have happened without Ruffalo.  While he easily gives the film's best performance he still acts as an ensemble members.  He can take attention when he needs to, but he also allows the other actors to take center stage and gives them someone to play off of (especially Downey and Johansson).

While Ruffalo is not exactly playing the Hulk, there are elements of the Hulk's personality in his portrayal of Banner.  He really plays Banner as always struggling with his other persona and there are some really subtle layers.  The most intense moments of the film are when he gets angry and you believe that he could transform into the Hulk in a second.  I also credit Ruffalo for utilizing humor in all the right places and not just being tragic.  This was one of the best comic book performances of all time.

Other Great Supporting Performances:

Sacha Baron Cohen (Les Miserables), Colm Wilkinson (Les Miserables), Dave Franco (21 Jump Street), Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi), Jake Johnson (Safety Not Guaranteed), Mark Duplass (Safety Not Guaranteed), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Jeff Daniels (Looper), Frank Grillo (End of Watch), Nate Parker (Arbitrage), Skylar Astin (Pitch Perfect), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Michael Fassbender (Prometheus), John Lithgow (This is 40), Thomas Middleditch (Fun Size), Oscar Isaac (Bourne Legacy), Sam Rockwell (Seven Psychopaths), Martin Sheen (Amazing Spider-Man), Tom Cruise (Rock of Ages)

Best Picture Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Last year the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from five to ten movies nominated, last year only nine made it in.  This year I am predicting that it will be around 7, but here are the top ten in consideration.

Argo

Pros: Universal good reviews, surprising box-office, chances for multiple wins and nominations.

Cons: Early release dates don't always translate to wins, other films such as Lincoln or Les Mis may be fresher in voters minds by January.

Lincoln

Pros: Excellent word of mouth, baity cast and crew, political in nature

Cons: War Horse was built up for months until its release and it ended up a dud (a nominated-dud, but a dud nonetheless).  Spielberg has not made a great movie since Munich.

Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: A lot of long, heavy, epic movies this year, the smaller, lighter fare may come across as a relief.  David O. Russell had just made the Academy's radar, great word of mouth

Cons: People may not take Bradley Cooper seriously, may make fun of mental illness too much

Les Miserables

Pros: Beloved classic stage musical with a cast to die for and an Oscar winning director.  Incredibly ambitious in the way they are doing the songs and the source material is the stuff Oscar voters love

Cons: Looks to deviate from the musical by incorporating spoken word, Russell Crowe's voice may not be up to snuff, musicals have not been a guarantee in a long time, may not live up to the source material

Life of Pi

Pros: A big-budget 3D spectacle helmed by a solid, dependable director with a lot of heart behind it.  This one could get voters' heartstrings

Cons: A bomb at the box-office could harm its chances, not up for acting nominations, been a while since Ang Lee was a threat

Zero Dark Thirty

Pros: A topical follow up to The Hurt Locker in familiar territory, has the makings of a great thriller

Cons: Topical isn't always what AMPAS likes, has to walk a fine line with its politics, may be overshadowed by Argo

Moonrise Kingdom

Pros: Good box-office and better reviews, a sentimental contender.  They could acknowledge Wes Anderson like they did Terence Malick last year

Cons: Very early release, not up for acting nominations

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: This year's little indie film that could.  Emotional, provocative and beautiful, it is one of the best movies of the year and has been recognized as such

Cons: Unknown cast and director, early release date, may be too small, uncomfortable for some viewers

The Master

Pros: Has the internet behind it, an Oscar worthy cast, potential original screenplay nomination, the prestige of PTA

Cons: Early release and this movie did not make much of a splash.  Nobody has been talking about it, seems to have been eclipsed by other movies.  Also we'll see if the association with Scientology has a positive or negative effect on it.  Not a sure thing, but then again not many are this year

Flight

Pros: The return to form for both Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington.  Features great acting, special effects and writing.  Decent box-office

Cons: Not really an Oscar movie, definitely a quality one but it could easily be forgotten or not receive enough votes to make it in

The Next Ten

These are the movies to keep an eye on, have less of a chance but you never know where surprises come from

Django Unchained

Pros: Up for a few acting nominations, going to leave an impact and be a unique movie for sure

Cons: Never know how Tarantino is going to be received, this movie is still unseen, having fun with slavery may not go over well with some

Hitchcock

Pros: Movie nostalgia seemed to be present in many Oscar films last year, this could be a way of finally rewarding Alfred Hitchcock

Cons: The makeup looks incredibly goofy, may be too late of an entry, doesn't have a known director behind it

Anna Karenina

Pros: The material is Oscar bait, a unique telling of the story, potential for a best actress win, usually a British film makes the cut

Cons: Has not been received the best, may not be very good

The Avengers

Pros: Every one in Hollywood is either working on a Marvel movie or is trying to, this movie was a giant collaboration featuring several Oscar voters, also a box-office to be reckoned with

Cons: Won't be up for any other nominations in main categories, may split votes with Dark Knight Rises and it is a fun, superhero movie not an Oscar movie

Promised Land

Pros: Topical, could resonate with the heartland, Damon is usually dependable

Cons: Very political, not a movie most voters can relate to, may be seen as too light-weight, too late of an entry

Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Pros: Terrific box office, veteran British actors, has had some remarkable staying power

Cons: Early release, light-weight, small film

The Hobbit

Pros: Peter Jackson's return to Middle-Earth, one of the only big-budget franchises to be rewarded by the Academy

Cons: The Lord of the Rings trilogy was influential, but that was ten years ago this may not seem as fresh now, big-budget fantasy doesn't seem to be in the zeitgeist anymore, competition with Avengers and others

The Sessions

Pros: Three potential acting nominations and a screenplay nominations keep it in consideration

Cons: Decent word of mouth, but hasn't made a huge impact, could easily be forgotten

Quartet

Pros: Getting a late push, Academy loves actor turned directors

Cons: Very light-weight, won't be widely seen

Skyfall

Pros: 50th Anniversary of Hollywood's favorite franchise and this entry has been received surprisingly well

Cons: It is a Bond movie and as good as it is there are plenty of flaws