Best Things About This Year's Oscar Race

Tomorrow is the night of the Academy Awards.  As in any awards race it gets a little nasty.  Especially online where movie buffs put full support for their favorite films and talk all kinds of smack about the competition.  During the Oscars fully expect to see Facebook posts from people who celebrate their films that won, victimize themselves over the ones that didn't and curse the winners they did not like.

But amidst all of this intense competition there is a lot to admire about this year's Oscar race.  This has been the best batch of nominees that I have seen.  It is an unpredictable race with a lot of great qualities.  So instead of bashing movies that threaten the movies I love, let's really take a look at what an incredible year for movies 2012 was and how the Oscars are really reflecting that.

10. Perfect Host

The Oscars are the biggest event in Hollywood yet they rarely take a chance on their host.  They usually play it safe with TV personalities that we see every day.  But the choice of Seth MacFarlane is incredibly inspired.  He is a honed showman that we don't often get to see.  He is a personality that we only get small doses of, and in his perfect SNL gig and fun 2009 variety special, he has proven that he does not disappoint.  Also MacFarlane was a driving force behind one of the best movies from 2012.  In celebrating the best of film it makes sense to have somebody active and relevant up front.  Also he is not just a performer but also a producer, director and writer.  He is not going to just do bits that other people wrote for him, he is going to be able to understand those bits and put his personal stamp on them.  After Tina Fey and Amy Poehler did a perfect job at the Globes, I saw a lot of people online say that MacFarlane has a lot to live up to and will fail in comparison.  But it isn't a competition, awards shows are just getting smart about using smart people.

9. Creativity in Acting Nominations

Acting nominations are usually pretty boring.  They are actors who associate themselves with movies who are designed to win Oscars.  Usually it seems like actors get nominations because they are supposed to.  But this year voters seemed to think outside of the box.  Even if they did not care for The Master they still nominated three unique performances.  Denzel Washington earned a nomination based on his acting not his film.  The best actress race usually is exclusive to attractive starlets that paid their dues, but young Quvenzhane Wallis and senior Emmanuelle Riva made it in.  With Riva even having a chance at winning.  Then there is Jackie Weaver, whose nomination was very unexpected.  She had no big Oscar moments, didn't seem to be campaigning and was unnoticed by most precursors.  However she gave a great performance that benefited a great movie.  She was nominated for the performance, not the politics and that sadly does not happen much.

8. An Unsure Outcome

Nobody knows nothing.  Even Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway have room for doubt.  Best picture could go to Argo, but it could still go to another movie.  There are four directors and four leading actresses who could conceivably win in their perspective categories.  Not to mention best supporting actor with five previous winners that seem to be on equal footing.  Even animated feature is not a sure thing.  Not an easy race to bet on, but definitely an exciting one to watch.

7. Precursors Spreading the Love

One of the main reasons that this race is difficult to predict is that the precursors are all over the place with their nominations and winners.  Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, John Hawkes and others were consistently recognized while Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild were not.  A huge shift from previous years where usually only one or two movies win everything.  Which is how it should be.  Why should one movie win every award if there are so many awards?  Seems like these voting bodies are focusing on rewarding movies rather than only serving to predict the Oscars.

6. Frontrunner Without a Director Nomination

Outside of Driving Miss Daisy it is difficult to name a movie that won best picture without being nominated for best director.  It is even difficult to to find a movie that wins best picture without winning best director.  But Argo could very well change that.  Even if Argo loses tomorrow night, it is still incredible that it held the frontrunner spot for so long.  Best Picture should not be about most nominations and wins, it should be about Best Picture.  Which many, including myself feel Argo is.

5. Great Movies Did Not Get Nominated for Oscars

I think it is a great sign for the film industry when great movies miss out on Oscar nominations.  Great movies should not be limited to ten a year.  21 Jump Street, Safety Not Guaranteed, Looper, Rise of the Guardians, Cabin in the Woods, Magic Mike, People Like Us, Pitch Perfect, End of Watch, Dredd, Wanderlust, Chronicle, The Grey, Arbitrage and many others were not nominated for any Oscars.  Many of these are not Oscar movies, but that does not diminish their quality.

4. Great Movies Were Nominated

Personally I did not love all of the nominated movies.  But I have to hand it to the Oscars for nominating the best of 2012.  Even if I thought Django and especially Lincoln were overrated, they are still impeccably crafted films and I understand the audiences that love them.  There were no movies as bad as War Horse, overrated as The Reader or somehow included like Blind Side.  These are all some of the best of film.

3. Lack of Critical Consensus

Les Miserables was nominated for best picture and was included on many worst of 2012 lists.  People don't like Amour, they did not get Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Lincoln, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and the rest all have incredible detractors.  Good.  A great movie is not one that everybody loves.  A great movie is not one that is critic proof.  A great movie should have multiple interpretations and be divisive.  The nine best pictures were not made to please everybody.  They were made to tell specific stories, many of these are for different audiences.  I am very happy to see that people like and dislike these films on their own terms rather than just liking something because it is Oscar bait.

2. Controversy Abounds

There is a lot of controversy around Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained.  Even Lincoln and Argo have brought about debates.  Without getting into my personal views on these movies I think it is great that movies are tackling tough subjects.  Movies last year did not play it safe, many took risks (Les Mis for all of its detractors took risks).  But I think the best part about the controversial nature of these movies is that they are causing audiences to think.  These movies are not passive experiences, people are struggling with them and articulating their feelings.  Which is exactly the type of movies that should be recognized.

1. Audiences are Watching These Movies

People say that they don't make smart mature movies anymore.  They say that audiences do not go to theatres anymore.  But the box-office totals of this year's nominees match their critical reception.  Combined box-office totals add up to $415 million dollars, which is 35% of 2012's gross.  That is astonishing considering how Oscar movies are traditionally some of the lowest attended.  Lincoln is the biggest success but they all made a considerable amount of money.  Even Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are successful.  This is proof that audiences support good movies.  Pay attention Hollywood.

Producers Guild Shakes Up Best Picture Race

Been a few weeks since my last Oscar predictions.  The Producers Guild is usually a good gage for the best picture race.  Last year seven of their nominations matched the Academy's (Bridesmaids, Dragon Tattoo and Ides of March instead of Tree of Life and Extremely Loud), the year before they were only one film off (The Town instead of Winter's Bone) and in 2009 they were two off (Star Trek and Invictus instead of A Serious Man and Blind Side).

Included in the nominations are the locks of Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook.  The best picture winner is still one of these five.

Life of Pi looks to be a lock now too, along with the financially successful Django Unchained.  Both had good showings at the Globes, several critics groups and now here.  They are becoming much more stable predictions.

Receiving boosts from the PGA are the early releases of  Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Moonrise has been popping up infrequently in precursors but this nod bodes well for the small film.  Southern Wild on the other hand has its first big precursor nod.  A few weeks ago I was almost ready to count it out of the race, but it may have more support than I had initially thought.

The film with that was helped the most by these nominations however is Skyfall.  It looks like there is a sizable chance for the Academy celebrating Bond's 50th Anniversary and one of his best films.  It is the PGA nominated film with the lowest chances at an Oscar nomination, but the film keeps popping up in precursors.  With this and Bardem's SAG nomination it looks like voters are taking this one seriously.

There are two movies that are hurt by these nominations.  Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a contender when SAG and Globes announced their nominations, but a SAG ensemble nomination does not always equate to serious contender (Hairspray and 3:10 to Yuma).  Also a Globe nominated comedy is not the same as a Globe nominated drama.  I would say that the chances for Best Exotic to surprise with a best picture nomination is getting slimmer.

And almost out of the race is The Master.  It has not done well with the Guilds and the Globes.  Critics groups have been its only real Oscar attention, and critics aren't academy members.  Also I am sure Weinstein is campaigning Silver Linings and Django over his earlier, smaller release.  I know it has its ardent supporters, but be careful in predicting The Master for an Oscar.

So right now I would predict that the Best Picture nominations will be:

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

with Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild as potential upsets.  I am not discounting Skyfall yet either.  It has been an interesting race, there may be some surprises this year too, you never know.

Best Picture Predictions (as of 12/13/12)

NBR, Critics Choice, SAG, Globes and several critics winners and nominees are in.  Here are my updated predictions.

The best picture race is interesting this year.  There have been many great films released but several are dropping.  Out of all of the blockbusters this year (Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit) Skyfall seems to have the best chance, but that is not going to happen.  Flight is out of the race for Best Picture, as is Promised Land which held some promise after NBR but currently holds 55% on Rotten Tomatoes and no precursors.  I had actually thought This is 40 had a slight chance with its good reviews and solid release date, but it won't get in after missing out completely at the Golden Globes.

That leaves 11 movies remaining for 10 slots.  And with the new format (a really complicated voting system that I don't understand in the slightest) anywhere between five and ten films could be nominated.  I would estimate somewhere around seven nominees this year, but it could go up to nine like last year.

The consensus seems to be around the same five movies.  Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are all locks for nominees.  Silver Linings Playbook won't have the steam to win, Weinstein really dropped the ball by changing it to a limited release.  Lincoln is still a favorite of many and is racking up precursor nominations and box-office receipts.  Argo's early release date may harm its chances at winning but it still might.  Les Mis has received its fair share of negative reviews but it also has many passionate about it.  I think that voters will respond to how emotional and epic it is.  It will be nominated no matter what, but the fact that Hooper isn't a lock for director is its main obstacle.  Then there is Zero Dark Thirty which has been nominated for everything it hasn't won.  100% on Rotten Tomatoes still and the frontrunner for Best Actress puts this at the top of the five.  The main thing that could keep it from winning is that it may be politically more divisive than Lincoln, Argo or Les Mis.  But expect something war related to win.

The other films in contention are not locks, one missed precursor could be it for any of these six films.  Life of Pi is back in the race after the Globes nominated the film, score and Ang Lee.  However it has been missing from several other precursors and isn't up for any acting nominations (which is a shame because Suraj Sharma and Irrfan Khan deliver some of the year's best performances.  Best Exotic Marigold Hotel which has reentered the race after the SAGs and the Globes.  The SAG ensemble nomination may signal its Oscar potential.  However it won't have as many passionate supporters as other movies.  The Master has remained in the race, but it is certainly not a guarantee.  The movie has largely been forgotten and seems to have done the best with critics groups, definitely needs a PGA nomination.  Django Unchained has been showing up pretty consistently.  However the topic of slavery may be a turn off to voters, as could Jamie Foxx's SNL monologue.  Moonrise Kingdom has been showing up fairly inconsistently in the precursors, so some people are remembering it but it may not be enough.  Then there is Beasts of the Southern Wild whose chances are looking slimmer and slimmer.  If does not receive notice in the next few weeks it may unfortunately be out of the race.

So my current predictions for picture are:

Zero Dark Thirty (winner)

Les Miserables

Argo

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi

Django Unchained

(Might sneak in) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

I don't see the top five of Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook being threatened.  They are all locks and one of them will win.  However how many films nominated total and which of Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild will make the cut are very much up in the air.

Nick Nolte Auditions for the Year's Biggest Films

Best Picture Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Last year the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from five to ten movies nominated, last year only nine made it in.  This year I am predicting that it will be around 7, but here are the top ten in consideration.

Argo

Pros: Universal good reviews, surprising box-office, chances for multiple wins and nominations.

Cons: Early release dates don't always translate to wins, other films such as Lincoln or Les Mis may be fresher in voters minds by January.

Lincoln

Pros: Excellent word of mouth, baity cast and crew, political in nature

Cons: War Horse was built up for months until its release and it ended up a dud (a nominated-dud, but a dud nonetheless).  Spielberg has not made a great movie since Munich.

Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: A lot of long, heavy, epic movies this year, the smaller, lighter fare may come across as a relief.  David O. Russell had just made the Academy's radar, great word of mouth

Cons: People may not take Bradley Cooper seriously, may make fun of mental illness too much

Les Miserables

Pros: Beloved classic stage musical with a cast to die for and an Oscar winning director.  Incredibly ambitious in the way they are doing the songs and the source material is the stuff Oscar voters love

Cons: Looks to deviate from the musical by incorporating spoken word, Russell Crowe's voice may not be up to snuff, musicals have not been a guarantee in a long time, may not live up to the source material

Life of Pi

Pros: A big-budget 3D spectacle helmed by a solid, dependable director with a lot of heart behind it.  This one could get voters' heartstrings

Cons: A bomb at the box-office could harm its chances, not up for acting nominations, been a while since Ang Lee was a threat

Zero Dark Thirty

Pros: A topical follow up to The Hurt Locker in familiar territory, has the makings of a great thriller

Cons: Topical isn't always what AMPAS likes, has to walk a fine line with its politics, may be overshadowed by Argo

Moonrise Kingdom

Pros: Good box-office and better reviews, a sentimental contender.  They could acknowledge Wes Anderson like they did Terence Malick last year

Cons: Very early release, not up for acting nominations

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: This year's little indie film that could.  Emotional, provocative and beautiful, it is one of the best movies of the year and has been recognized as such

Cons: Unknown cast and director, early release date, may be too small, uncomfortable for some viewers

The Master

Pros: Has the internet behind it, an Oscar worthy cast, potential original screenplay nomination, the prestige of PTA

Cons: Early release and this movie did not make much of a splash.  Nobody has been talking about it, seems to have been eclipsed by other movies.  Also we'll see if the association with Scientology has a positive or negative effect on it.  Not a sure thing, but then again not many are this year

Flight

Pros: The return to form for both Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington.  Features great acting, special effects and writing.  Decent box-office

Cons: Not really an Oscar movie, definitely a quality one but it could easily be forgotten or not receive enough votes to make it in

The Next Ten

These are the movies to keep an eye on, have less of a chance but you never know where surprises come from

Django Unchained

Pros: Up for a few acting nominations, going to leave an impact and be a unique movie for sure

Cons: Never know how Tarantino is going to be received, this movie is still unseen, having fun with slavery may not go over well with some

Hitchcock

Pros: Movie nostalgia seemed to be present in many Oscar films last year, this could be a way of finally rewarding Alfred Hitchcock

Cons: The makeup looks incredibly goofy, may be too late of an entry, doesn't have a known director behind it

Anna Karenina

Pros: The material is Oscar bait, a unique telling of the story, potential for a best actress win, usually a British film makes the cut

Cons: Has not been received the best, may not be very good

The Avengers

Pros: Every one in Hollywood is either working on a Marvel movie or is trying to, this movie was a giant collaboration featuring several Oscar voters, also a box-office to be reckoned with

Cons: Won't be up for any other nominations in main categories, may split votes with Dark Knight Rises and it is a fun, superhero movie not an Oscar movie

Promised Land

Pros: Topical, could resonate with the heartland, Damon is usually dependable

Cons: Very political, not a movie most voters can relate to, may be seen as too light-weight, too late of an entry

Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Pros: Terrific box office, veteran British actors, has had some remarkable staying power

Cons: Early release, light-weight, small film

The Hobbit

Pros: Peter Jackson's return to Middle-Earth, one of the only big-budget franchises to be rewarded by the Academy

Cons: The Lord of the Rings trilogy was influential, but that was ten years ago this may not seem as fresh now, big-budget fantasy doesn't seem to be in the zeitgeist anymore, competition with Avengers and others

The Sessions

Pros: Three potential acting nominations and a screenplay nominations keep it in consideration

Cons: Decent word of mouth, but hasn't made a huge impact, could easily be forgotten

Quartet

Pros: Getting a late push, Academy loves actor turned directors

Cons: Very light-weight, won't be widely seen

Skyfall

Pros: 50th Anniversary of Hollywood's favorite franchise and this entry has been received surprisingly well

Cons: It is a Bond movie and as good as it is there are plenty of flaws