Non-Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

The Academy nominated all previous winners this year: Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz.  Out of these I would actually pick Arkin as my favorite.  He had some surprisingly subtle layers in a fairly small role.  I also really liked Hoffman and Waltz.  DeNiro and Jones gave their best performances in way too long, but they weren't among my personal picks.  There were so many great supporting actors this year, but I narrowed down the five that meant the most to me.  Here are my picks for the Best Supporting Actors Not Nominated for an Academy Award:

Albert Brooks, This is 40

I can't think of a better fit for Judd Apatow's style than the great Albert Brooks.  Apatow specializes in unlikable and harsh characters and Brooks embraces those qualities.  He can play up despicable as funny and relatable without needing redeeming moments.  Brooks steals every moment on screen and also helps to elevate Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann's performances.  Nobody makes unlikable more likable than Albert Brooks in one of his best performances ever.  He has what very few other comedic performers have: sincerity and honesty, even if the sincerity and honesty is not comfortable or nice.

James Badge Dale, Flight

This is the definition of a one scene wonder.  Maybe I should have mentioned a performer with more screen time, but I love these little bit parts.  Dale couldn't have been on screen for more than five minutes, yet he leaves a strong impact.  He plays a man dying from cancer who interrupts Denzel and Kelly Reilly's meeting in the stairwell.  They are both frustrated with their current situation and are at different stages of their addictions, but Dale enters and ups the ante with a more depressing story about situations he can't control.  There is so much frustration to him but also a sense of carelessness.  When you can steal a scene away from Denzel Washington by being more commanding you deserve attention.

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

I am so happy to see Beasts of the Southern Wild receive four big unexpected nominations, but it still missed out on a few.  The main one was Dwight Henry for supporting actor.  Henry is a novice actor who portrays the most difficult character of the year.  The character is difficult to like and warm up to, but there is a respect you feel for him even if you don't understand or agree with him.  Henry can come across as neglectful and at times abusive towards his young daughter, but there is a pride to him and no matter what parental standards he fails he still loves little Hushpuppy.  His character demands respect and the movie is very much on his terms.  He represents what a certain way of life can mean to a person.  Some of the most difficult scenes I've ever scene are when he struggles to communicate with his daughter and tries to prepare her to survive without him.  This is one of the great movie fathers and unquestionably one of the best performances of 2012.

Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Casting a boyish 30-year-old as Marius was the best decision the filmmakers could make regarding the character.  Redmayne brings a great deal of loss and maturity along with the character's innocent idealism.  This character was not one I was looking forward to, but his sorrowful rendition of Empty Chairs was the most moving part of the film.  He can transition from powerful and grand to small and personal with ease.  He also made the love story with Cosette work due to his charisma and likability.  I see a bright future for Eddie Redmayne.

Mark Ruffalo, The Avengers

When I saw that Ruffalo was cast as Bruce Banner I thought it was a genius move.  But I did not anticipate the way he would interpret the character.  I have been a die hard Marvel fan for almost a decade and I had never imagined Banner the way he was in the movie.  A movie actually improved on a character from the comics and that could not have happened without Ruffalo.  While he easily gives the film's best performance he still acts as an ensemble members.  He can take attention when he needs to, but he also allows the other actors to take center stage and gives them someone to play off of (especially Downey and Johansson).

While Ruffalo is not exactly playing the Hulk, there are elements of the Hulk's personality in his portrayal of Banner.  He really plays Banner as always struggling with his other persona and there are some really subtle layers.  The most intense moments of the film are when he gets angry and you believe that he could transform into the Hulk in a second.  I also credit Ruffalo for utilizing humor in all the right places and not just being tragic.  This was one of the best comic book performances of all time.

Other Great Supporting Performances:

Sacha Baron Cohen (Les Miserables), Colm Wilkinson (Les Miserables), Dave Franco (21 Jump Street), Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi), Jake Johnson (Safety Not Guaranteed), Mark Duplass (Safety Not Guaranteed), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Jeff Daniels (Looper), Frank Grillo (End of Watch), Nate Parker (Arbitrage), Skylar Astin (Pitch Perfect), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Michael Fassbender (Prometheus), John Lithgow (This is 40), Thomas Middleditch (Fun Size), Oscar Isaac (Bourne Legacy), Sam Rockwell (Seven Psychopaths), Martin Sheen (Amazing Spider-Man), Tom Cruise (Rock of Ages)

Best Supporting Actor Predictions (as of 12/14/12)

The best actor race is certainly whittling down.  A week ago there were several promising candidates such as John Goodman, Samuel L. Jackson, Albert Brooks and Eddie Redmayne who are safe to take out of the running.  I suppose that should count Dwight Henry out of contention as well as he should have received notice before now for Beasts of the Southern Wild.

There are eight actors who pose a threat on Oscar night.  Matthew McConaughey has taken a hit after missing out on the Globes, somewhere he should have done well.  However he is experiencing quite the career comeback and has been noticed by several critics groups.  Leonardo DiCaprio received a bump from the Globe nomination, however he has not been showing up much.  Although the frontrunner to win early in the race he will only get noticed if AMPAS notices Django.  The actor that also, surprisingly, has a shot is Javier Bardem for his role as a Bond villain.  Both he and Dench had received some notice from critics, but his SAG nomination should be taken seriously.  This may be the Academy's way of acknowledging Bond's anniversary and a type of supporting performance they too often ignore (in my opinion blockbusters have some of the best supporting performances).

Meaning that my predicted five are Christoph Waltz, Alan Arkin, Robert DeNiro, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones.  All of these are associated with best picture contenders and are scene stealers.  This is a category that could surprise easily because I would not say that anyone is a lock to win.  Jones seemed like a lock a month ago, but I am not as sure right now, Hoffman or DeNiro could too.  Even Waltz isn't out of the question.  The most interesting thing is that all of these five have won in the past.

If you are looking to bet money on somebody, take the safe bet and go with Tommy Lee Jones.  But definitely watch this category closely, because it could change in the coming weeks.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Pros: Tommy Lee Jones has been cited as the highlight of the movie, playing against type.  Been the most popular name in this category among many pundits

Cons: Has to compete with David Straithairn, James Spader and many others in this large ensemble, not the most popular actor anymore (see Men in Black 3)

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Pros: One of the most reliable, Oscar friendly actors gives a big, powerful, controlling performance there is no way voters are ignoring him

Cons: Should be guaranteed a nomination on his reputation and strength of the performance, but the movie may not be popular enough for a second win

Alan Arkin, Argo

Pros: Brought levity to a very heavy movie.  He added laughs without going over the top and gave the role some weight.  Hollywood should find a lot of honesty in his performance as a slick producer

Cons: A small role and has a whole ensemble of talented actors to compete against, already won an Oscar while no one else in the cast has ever been nominated

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Pros: Playing against type and having fun in a movie could finally win Leo his Oscar

Cons: Nobody has seen this movie and there is no guarantee that anything in it will get a nomination.  He could be a threat to win, but he is going up against more established and accomplished actors in movies that may be better than his

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: Lack of competition could land this novice actor a nomination for the most challenging role of the year

Cons: This movie may not be what voters are looking for, he is completely unknown, may not have a strong campaign, the character is tough to like too

Runner-Ups

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: In one of the best movies of the years, many pundits think he could have a chance

Cons: De Niro is no longer seen as a dependable star, his role could be overshadowed by the main characters

Russell Crowe, Les Miserables

Pros: A terrific role and great music, this could be a very powerful performance

Cons: He is not a singer like the rest of the cast, his vocals seemed shaky in the most recent trailer.  It has been a decade since Russell Crowe was an Oscar favorite

Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Pros: Magic Mike surprised a lot of audiences and critics, but it is one of the most popular movies of the year.  MCConaughey has been making a comeback and has had a very Oscar friendly career shift these last few years.  Already has a campaign going, sex appeal in the role

Cons: The subject and role of male stripper may not appeal to some voters, role in a summer blockbuster not an Oscar movie

Jude Law, Anna Karenina

Pros: Been overdue for another nomination for a while, his deglamorized performance in the trailer looks very promising, role of a ruler can do well with voters

Cons: He may be too far off the Academy's radar at this point, movie has not been well received, could be overshadowed by Keira Knightley

William H. Macy, The Sessions

Pros: A strong supporting performance from a dependable actor

Cons: Small movie, John Hawkes and Helen Hunt may receive all of the attention