2018 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor Final Predictions

There have only been seven serious contenders for the entire awards season.  Mahershala Ali is in the lead for his second win, but there seems to be support for Sam Elliott (which surprises me having seen what was essentially a cameo).  Richard E. Grant, Adam Driver and Timothee Chalamet have all been consistently nominated alongside them.  Sam Rockwell has also been nominated here and there and Michael B. Jordan's name has remained in contention.  You won't see a nominee outside of those seven.

Top Predicted Five
Mahershala Ali, Green Book	Sam Elliott, A Star is Born	Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?	Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman	Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Weaker category this year, but it looks like Ali will have his second win.  With his prestigious role in True Detective being marketed heavily it looks like he may have the respect to pull it off.	Won at NBR, but missed a few precursors.  Not a large or showy role at all.  Seems to be a career nomination.  If voters like the movie and his performance he could end up winning.	Been a consistent presence throughout the season.  Talented actor deserving of his first Oscar nom.  Worked out having the right two leads in the right film.	Driver has balanced mainstream and prestige roles wonderfully and has been building towards an Oscar nomination. He’s been nominated even when Washington hasn’t.  He is a sure thing and will represent his ensemble.	The one thing that’s been praised in a film with mixed reviews.  After he came close to winning last year he will be an Oscar mainstay.  His performance deals with a current issue that is underrepresented at the awards.
Runner-Ups
Sam Rockwell, Vice	Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther	Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns	Bryan Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk	Steven Yeun, Burning
Only remaining supporting actor who got multiple precursor nods, although he missed SAG.  This is more of a cameo and impression, but it is a really good one and adds to the film.  Rockwell won on his career nomination last year, voters could acknowledge him again here.  A lot will have to do with how much voters love Vice.	An early favorite that has not been seen in the precursors outside of Critics Choice.  Jordan is now a movie star and this is the closest he’s come to the Oscars in an impressive young career.  It remains to be seen how much of an impact Black Panther will have on the awards.  But it looks like the acting will be shut out barring a huge surprise.	Really nobody has a chance outside of the first seven names I listed.  If any of them miss then it really is anybody’s game.  So I’ll just throw out some far outside potentials like Tony and McCarthur Genius Grant winner, Miranda.  He’s a beloved figure but if he was seriously going for an acting Oscar he would have been playing the game more publicly, which he easily could.	Nobody has worked harder than Henry this year.  With Emmy and Tony attention, an Oscar is next.  And he’s been in plenty of movies this year from Widows, White Boy Rick, Spider-Verse, Hotel Artemis and this Oscar contender.  Unfortunately there is little buzz for Beale Street and his name should have come up by now.	He was acknowledged by a few critics awards, but didn’t catch on with the major ones.  This film is too small to surprise.
Long Shots
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give	Tim Blake Nelson, Ballad of Buster Scruggs	Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite	Hugh Grant, Paddington 2	Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Was named the highlight of the film, but it was quickly forgotten.	Netflix got Blige a nomination last year, but her category was weaker and there is still a streaming bias.	Should have been in the race before now if it was going to happen.  The movie’s buzz is solely about its three leads.	Had a BAFTA nomination and some critic award notices.  Missed out for Florence Foster Jenkins, but this is too goofy for Oscars.	Maybe some one actually saw Widows and nominates someone from the impressive ensemble?  Kaluuya is the most likely, still a huge long shot.