People will be surprised by a snub for Incredibles 2, but non-Toy Story Pixar sequels don't get nominated. Early Man will get its first major nomination of the season, because the Academy has always loved Aardman.
Top Predicted Five
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Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse |
Isle of Dogs
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Mirai
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Ralph Breaks the Internet
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Early Man
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Recent release with great box-office and crazy good reception. Many are passionate about this movie that both does new things with animation and satisfies as an emotional experience. Similar movies like Lego Movie and Lego Batman were snubbed so there is a slight chance of this losing on the expected nomination, Sony also doesn’t have a good track record in animation with the Oscars. Still, Spider-Verse has more going for it than any other nominee. Expect this to win.
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Fantastic Mr. Fox got nominated in this category and the Oscars have a weakness for stop-motion in general. With consistent precursor nominations this is a lock. There was some controversy when it was released earlier in the year, but there isn’t anything besides Spider-Verse and potential Pixar-bias that could seriously pose a challenge.
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This year’s GKids foreign film that voters are responding to. Mirai has been the one foreign film to make a showing in the precursors, expect it to land here too.
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Disney has been on a roll at the Oscars since the original Wreck-It Ralph. While Pixar sequels are usually left out, this has a different feel than its predecessor. Going to be one of the few mainstream animated films on voter’s minds.
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This has not gotten a single precursor mention, but I am including it here because Academy voters have always loved Aardman Animation. Even when they produce weaker material that doesn’t succeed, like The Pirates! and Shaun the Sheep, the Oscars have nominated them where others haven’t. Not a strong contender, but there aren’t a lot of serious threats.
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Runner-Ups
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Incredibles 2
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The Grinch
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Lu, Over the Wall
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Night is Short, Walk on Girl
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Smallfoot
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Pixar is not the sure thing people still think it is. Especially not Pixar sequels, Toy Story 3 is the only one to receive a nomination. With the response not being as enthusiastic as the original Incredibles this will most likely be left off, despite precursor attention.
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Received a PGA nomination and is recent enough in voter’s minds that it stands a chance. This movie did great financially too. Illumination has a previous nomination with Despicable Me 2, but that was a long time ago. Just on the outskirts as a potential spoiler, but not likely.
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GKids has surprised with multiple unforeseen nominations before. They will be primarily campaigning Mirai, but contenders are weak enough that this could get in too.
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Same point about GKids, the animated feature nominees can surprise sometimes.
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But the animated feature categories can surprise with a smaller mainstream nominee from a studio that isn’t typically rewarded (think Surf’s Up or Ferdinand). Smallfoot could be that rare type of spoiler, but again it is rare.
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Long Shots
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Fireworks
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Ruben Brandt, Collector
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Have a Nice Day
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Tito and the Birds
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Teen Titans Go! to the Movies
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Another potential GKids spoiler.
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Sony Pictures Classics has gotten films nominated here, but we would have heard more about this film by now if that was the case.
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Adult animation is really tough, not going to happen this year.
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Got an Annie Nomination for Best Independent Animated Feature. Shout Factory has not made it to the Oscars yet, though.
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May have to nominate it to balance out the clear Marvel bias with Black Panther and Spider-Verse being contenders.
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