Best Original Screenplay
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Top Predicted Five
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Roma
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Green Book
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The Favourite
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Vice
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A Quiet Place
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Personal film, if it lands with voters they’ll acknowledge it here. Still has competition.
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The film being written by the son of the main character portrayed may bring this one more attention. But it may be seen as too light of a movie, needs to be a frontrunner to win.
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Definitely a screenplay that people like, the film is just a little less popular than some other contenders. The Favourite needs a surge of support to win here, but it is in the realm of possibility.
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An uneven, but ambition and creative movie. Voters might not respond to it, but a good portion of precursors have. This should get a nomination.
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This slot could go to many films. There is a chance that A Quiet Place surprises with Oscar attention and this is one category where it has room to get in. If voters go for this movie, it could get in here too.
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Runner-Ups
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Eighth Grade
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First Reformed
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Cold War
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Bohemian Rhapsody
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Sorry to Bother You
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Been acknowledged here and there for screenplay, but still a smaller early release film. It is the type of indie that can do well in screenplay though, don’t entirely count it out.
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Paul Schrader definitely deserves a career nomination, but this small film lost a lot of steam and is out of the conversation. Could still surprise, but the support doesn’t seem to be there.
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Foreign films can do well in the screenplay categories. Roma may take some steam away from it, though.
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Nobody expected this film to be doing as well as it has in the precursors. If it gets support for Best Picture a screenplay nomination could follow. But it isn’t really a writer’s movie.
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Truly original with an angry, clear, individual artist’s voice. Not really in the conversation though. Too small and too weird, needed a WGA nomination that it didn’t get.
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Long Shots
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Ballad of Buster Scruggs
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The Rider
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On the Basis of Sex
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Hereditary
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Tully
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Coens can do well here, but their chances are often over-predicted. This film will be shut out.
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One of the best received films of the year, but it never entered the Oscar conversation in a meaningful way.
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This was designed for Oscar recognition, but the focus this year is pretty heavy on male artists and issues. This one just didn’t take off.
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Horror is respectable again and Get Out won this category last year. But A Quiet Place will be the easier film to recognize. Even if this is more original.
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Diablo Cody has yet to be welcomed back to the Oscars and this film has amazing reviews. But it was too small and too early, the push isn’t there.
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Adapted screenplay is going to be where If Beale Street Could Talk gets a win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
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Top Predicted Five
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If Beale Street Could Talk
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Can You Ever Forgive Me?
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BlacKkKlansman
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A Star is Born
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Black Panther
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In a year dominated by Original Screenplays this has been the one Adapted Screenplay to make a consistent impact. Jenkins’ writing of beloved material has been praised, but the film is not being recognized in many other categories. It will be nominated but may not stand out against the screenplays with a corresponding Best Picture nomination.
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Nicole Holofcener is definitely due for Oscar attention and it seems to be secured a nomination. But this one also will suffer from a lack of Best Picture.
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BlacKkKlansman should get nominations in several key categories, including this one. With a lot of sentiment towards Spike Lee finally being up for an Oscar it may be easier to reward him here than director. There is a chance that BlacKkKlansman doesn’t win in any of its categories too.
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This movie has had a tremendous response and several key precursors for screenplay. Cooper producing, directing, nominating and writing is definitely part of the movie’s campaign. It really isn’t a writer’s movie as much as it is about the cinematography and performances. But as the frontrunner for Best Picture is will get a screenplay nod.
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Got a WGA nomination over other contenders. With Logan getting an Adapted nom last year, this should have no problem getting in.
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Runner-Ups
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First Man
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The Hate U Give
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Crazy Rich Asians
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Widows
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Leave No Trace
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Was recognized by the BAFTAs, but the film isn’t doing well anywhere else.
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The writers could vote to recognize the late Audrey Wells who died right before the film opened. But the movie is out of the Oscar conversation.
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An popular adaptation of a popular book. The film has Oscar potential in a few major categories, but it would still be a surprise.
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Very complex screenplay from Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, who have not been nominated for their writing before. The film looks like it will be shut out, however.
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Critics awards were really big on this small, early release. But the major awards were not so this will be shut out too.
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Long Shots
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Mary Poppins Returns
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Boy Erased
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Old Man and the Gun
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The Death of Stalin
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Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse |
Does a difficult job of balancing references with the original and advancing its themes. But the film may be limited to technical awards.
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Looked like a bigger contender earlier in the year, but that has not laughed.
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David Lowery will be up for an Oscar before too long, but this film never gained awards momentum.
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Hit with critics, but not with others.
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People are really responding to this movie. Some voters might consider it for screenplay.
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