2018 Academy Award for Best Actress Final Predictions

This is the strongest year I've ever seen for leading actresses.  There have been a lot of strong contenders, but the consensus seems to have settled on Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga and Melissa McCarthy.  With Close and Colman as the two potential winners.

That final fifth slot could go several ways, but conventional wisdom says it is finally Emily Blunt's turn for a nomination.

Top Predicted Five
Glenn Close, The Wife	Olivia Colman, The Favourite	Lady Gaga, A Star is Born	Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?	Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
After that Golden Globe acceptance speech there is going to be a real desire to see her finally get her Oscar. Close is a respected veteran who has yet to win.  Seems to finally be her time.	But Colman still poses a threat.  The Favourite is doing well with audiences and she’s been consistently nominated.  This is a once in a lifetime, showy role.  She will be remembered by voters.  Needs to win some more precursors first to win here.	The Oscars like recognizing singers who prove that they can act.  Gaga is the standout in the Best Picture frontrunner, it is such a perfect showcase for her talents.  Seeing and hearing her on the big screen with power and vulnerability leaves an impact.  She’s a lock for her first nomination.	Previous nominee for a comedy who is making good as a dramatic lead.  The comedian being good in a drama can often lead to a nomination. The film has a perfect combination of her, Richard E. Grant and a great screenplay.  They will all get nominated, but lack the Best Picture push that would lead any to win.	The fifth Best Actress slot is where we could have a surprise, there is not much consensus for who will join Close, Colman, Gaga and McCarthy.  Even though Blunt lost at the Globes, she did get two SAG nominations. She is overdue for Oscar recognition and she beautifully takes on an iconic, Oscar-winning role.  Not a sure thing, but the most credible one who could earn the fifth slot.
Runner-Ups
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma	Viola Davis, Widows	Nicole Kidman, Destroyer	Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians	Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Did well with critics awards, didn’t take off with the precursors.  The acting is getting overlooked, which is a risk for black and white foreign language features.  Not to mention the streaming aspect.  Still if Roma takes the frontrunner status, she could get that fifths lot instead of Blunt.	Finally got recognition with a BAFTA nomination.  Recent winner who gave a powerful performance as a lead in a prestigious ensemble.  This is the type of role Oscars usually go for.  Unfortunately the film didn’t do well and is being discussed as more of an action or pulp film.  Lacks consistent precursor cred, but she is an Oscar favorite who could surprise.  She is the most likely one to represent Widows if it doesn’t get shut out.	You can never count out Kidman, who has been on a role with recent nominations.  She has a supporting contender and recent blockbuster cred.  This lesser seen film could surprise here.  Kidman’s been reliable at the Oscars and there is still room in the fifth slot, although it seems fairly unlikely.	There’s a chance that Crazy Rich Asians surprises with Best Picture and Screenplay.  It has buzz and enough precursor notices to pose a threat.  If it is being seen as a potential Oscar film Wu could get a nomination here.  Lead actresses in romantic comedies can get noticed by the Oscars and she definitely elevated her film.  The entire film needs to be loved by voters for her to sneak in, though.	She’s remained in contention with just enough precursor love.  The film could surprise, ala Beasts of the Southern Wild which got its new director and young star nominations.  Losing out at SAG hurts her.  But she’s still a potential contender.
Long Shots
Charlize Theron, Tully	Rosamund Pike, A Private War	Toni Collette, Hereditary	Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots	Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Theron has been working her way back to the Oscars for a while, but nothing’s took off.  Her career’s in a good place, but this film was too early and too small to make an impact.	Her Globe nomination was a big surprise.  But she has not been mentioned anywhere else.  Globes have nominated actresses for Drama before that haven’t received any other notices.	Oscar pundits are still beating the drum for her.  She had a presence in critics awards, but has been shut out by major precursors. This year is too competitive for a smaller horror lead to get in.	Early in the season this looked like it could have gotten Ronan her win.  The young actress already has three nominations.  But the film didn’t take off and the only buzz is about Robbie. Saoirse will have to keep waiting.	Definitely poised for a comeback with Homecoming and this.  But the film fell out of the race without any notable attention.  Her star power alone isn’t enough to push her to a nomination.