Despite a lot of diverse films released this year it looks like it will be limited to just Spike Lee getting in over Barry Jenkins, Ryan Coogler, Jon Chu, Boots Riley and others. Last year Greta Gerwig was the first female nominee in eight years. Hopefully we won't have to wait another eight years, because Marielle Heller, Debra Granik, Karyn Kusama, Chloe Zhao, Mimi Leder and others have been out of the Oscar conversation. Although Alfonso Cuaron being up for his second Oscar for a Spanish language film about working class Mexicans is not anything to be upset about.
Here's my predictions:
Top Predicted Five
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Alfonso Cuaron,
Roma
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Spike Lee,
BlacKkKlansman
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Bradley Cooper,
A Star is Born
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Adam McKay,
Vice
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Peter Farrelly,
Green Book
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Recent winner for a giant spectacle makes a small, artistic, uncompromised, personal film. His voice is very much in this film that is giving audiences an emotional connection. He’s been getting the directing attention all season, he’s on his way to his second Oscar win.
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After decades of missing at the Oscars, Spike is finally getting his director nomination for a film that works critically and in the mainstream. He’s secured a career nomination. Respect for him could get him a win, but the film lacks the support that would get him there.
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With Gibson, Peele and Gerwig receiving recent nominations, the Academy has been acknowledging actors turned directors again. A lot of the buzz of this film has to do with Cooper’s debut as director. He’s definitely a name voters like in acting, he’s secured a nom here.
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Recent nominee for The Big Short. Vice doesn’t have the same reception as that film, but he’s still been doing well at the precursors. With a DGA nomination he’s pretty much locked.
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Comedy director makes good with a traditional Oscar film. Farrelly has been along for the ride for helming the right type of film. Still unsure if AMPAS will love Green Book as much as others, but with a DGA nomination Farrelly is looking fairly secure. Still he’s in the weakest position of the five.
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Runner-Ups
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Yorgos Lanthimos,
The Favourite
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Barry Jenkins,
If Beale Street Could Talk
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Damien Chazelle,
First Man
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Ryan Coogler,
Black Panther
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Marielle Heller,
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
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Was looking like a solid contender, but missed too many key precursors. He’s been working his way towards the Oscars and this is his most mainstream work yet. Voters favoring the film could push him over, but the buzz is mainly about the actors.
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Lost in a Picture/Director vote split two years ago and has a lot of good will. The support for the film just isn’t there. Annapurna will end up pushing Vice harder and Jenkins is a very long shot. Writing will be his reward this year.
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Recent winner, but his film was a notable flop and Oscar talk didn’t save it. Still within the realm of being a potential surprise, but there isn’t much room for an upset.
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Coogler is one of the most important directors working, but none of his excellently received films have lead him to serious Oscar consideration. As his films keep getting a bigger and bigger canvas he is bound to be nominated eventually. But the push is just for the film in Best Picture, little talk is about him. The Marvel Brand may be detracting from the director.
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After Greta Gerwig was nominated last year you’d think that women directors would be considered. And in a year including Karyn Kusama, Mimi Leder, Chloe Zhao, Debra Granik and many others there is no buzz around any female directors. Marielle Heller has the best chance as her film has received some Best Picture notices in precursors. But it isn’t going to happen this year.
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Long Shots
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Bo Burnham,
Eighth Grade
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Paul Schrader,
First Reformed
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Pawell Pawlikowski,
Cold War
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John Krasinski,
A Quiet Place
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Debra Granik,
Leave No Trace |
Could be a surprise nomination ala Benh Zeitlin if voters really like Eighth Grade. Two comic actors turned directors were nominated last year. But we should have seen his name more by now if that was going to happen.
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His film has the critical support, but the Oscar buzz died out last month. The veteran will not be getting a career nomination here unless voters really go for this small film.
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Foreign directors are not unheard of and Pawlikowski did get a BAFTA nomination for directing. But it is unlikely without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Roma looks to completely overshadow it.
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There is a chance that AMPAS will really support A Quiet Place and Krasinski has gotten a lot of great press for the film. Oscar talk has not been too serious for him though. Bradley Cooper is this year’s leading man turned director.
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Critics awards had this film in good standing, but the precursors did not pick up that momentum. The Winter’s Bone director will be left out yet again.
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