2018 Academy Award for Best Actor Final Predictions

The shortlist has solidified pretty clearly as Rami Malek, Christian Bale, Viggo Mortensen, Bradley Cooper and John David Washington.  Malek and Bale won the Globes, Mortensen won NBR.  Cooper has won more as a director, but hasn't missed any important acting nominations.  Leaving Washington as the vulnerable contender, but there doesn't seem to be a clear threat.

Top Predicted Five
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody	Christian Bale, Vice	Viggo Mortensen, Green Book	Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born	John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
He is the only one carrying his film to a Best Picture nomination.  Everyone else is part of an ensemble with strong directing and writing contenders.  Malek is the only thing Bohemian Rhapsody has going for it and there is so much love for him.  His Globe win definitely puts him as the frontrunner.  Bohemian Rhapsody is being considered because his portrayal of a beloved artist worked.	Previous winner that did a complete transformation physically, which voters definitely like.  The character isn’t likable and he has a lot of subtlety so he isn’t as flashy as others.  Still he makes an impact and has been consistently acknowledged.  If the narrative around Bohemian Rhapsody changes he could win over Malek.  However the discussion around Vice isn’t the most supportive either.	Won at NBR and has been nominated everywhere else.  He is a respected actor with a recent nomination for a small film.  Green Book has remained strong in the race, with Mahershala looking at a second win Viggo’s nomination is a given.  Outside chance for him winning too, but Green Book still might not do as well at the Oscars as it did with other voting bodies.	Cooper has a packaged deal.  A Star is Born is sold as a movie he produced, directed, wrote and starred in.  He gets nominated for all four roles.  While Cooper’s been an Oscar mainstay and this is his strongest dramatic performance yet, he is a stronger contender as a producer and director. Will get nominated, would need a surge of support to win.  He got better notices as a director and that’s where his push will be.	The only one of the main five to not win a precursor.  Still he’s been nominated consistently and BlacKkKlansman looks to do well with nominations across the board.  Still, he is younger and less known than some other veterans and his performance is not as big and showy as others.  If anyone misses a nomination, it will be him.
Runner-Ups
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed	Ryan Gosling, First Man	Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate	Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased	Robert Redford, Old Man and the Sea
Seemed like the frontrunner before the major precursors came in and completely snubbed him.  Hawke is a respected actor and this movie has support, but it seems like it will be left out.	Despite Gosling’s good reputation, he’s only had two Oscar nominations his entire career of well received leading performances.  First Man fell out of the race early. His inclusion would be a real surprise.	He was supposed to win last year, but the race changed with the major precursors going to Rockwell.  Despite a few precursor nods, he will have to wait for another chance at an Oscar.  This film didn’t take off and CBS Films is not good at Oscar campaigning.	Amazing year with this, Ben is Back and Mid 90’s.  He’s a young actor with a previous nomination, Hedges is making a lot of smart choices that should keep him on the radar for the Oscars.  This film just did not get the support he would need to suprirse.	This is supposed to be his last film performance, but the Academy has never been big on Redford as an actor.  He only has one nomination for The Sting and has missed in all of his recent attempts like All is Lost.  He won’t get the sympathy, career vote.
Long Shots
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie	Ben Foster, Leave No Trace	Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here	Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk	Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Bound to get a second nomination eventually, but not this year.  Potential vote splits with The Sisters Brothers.	Leave No Trace did great with critics, not with precursors.  Too early, too small.  Ben Foster is always on the cusp of becoming an Oscar contender, but it has not worked yet.	Oscar pundits have been pushing this performance and film all year, but nobody’s been having it.  Phoenix is one of those actors that film fans adore who picks projects that aren’t mainstream enough for Oscars.	Up and coming actor in what should be a bigger Oscar contender.  There just isn’t any push for him.	Jackman is attempting to get a second nomination, but he was the only well received part of this film and will have to keep waiting.