2018 Final Oscar Predictions

Haven't done this in a while, but here are my predictions for the major categories at this year's Academy Awards:

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Animated Feature

As always, my predictions are not a reflection of you and the movies you like.  Many of my favorite films and performances from 2018 are nowhere to be seen in these predictions.  This is about what will be nominated, not what I want.

2018 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Final Predictions

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse should be a pretty clear winner, but Oscar tastes can surprise here (keep in mind both The LEGO Movie and The LEGO Batman Movie were snubbed for nominations).  Isle of Dogs is the one that could beat it.  Mirai has the arthouse slot with Ralph Breaks the Internet will continue Disney's impressive run.

People will be surprised by a snub for Incredibles 2, but non-Toy Story Pixar sequels don't get nominated.  Early Man will get its first major nomination of the season, because the Academy has always loved Aardman.

Top Predicted Five
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	Isle of Dogs	Mirai	Ralph Breaks the Internet	Early Man
Recent release with great box-office and crazy good reception.  Many are passionate about this movie that both does new things with animation and satisfies as an emotional experience.  Similar movies like Lego Movie and Lego Batman were snubbed so there is a slight chance of this losing on the expected nomination, Sony also doesn’t have a good track record in animation with the Oscars.  Still, Spider-Verse has more going for it than any other nominee.  Expect this to win.	Fantastic Mr. Fox got nominated in this category and the Oscars have a weakness for stop-motion in general. With consistent precursor nominations this is a lock.  There was some controversy when it was released earlier in the year, but there isn’t anything besides Spider-Verse and potential Pixar-bias that could seriously pose a challenge.	This year’s GKids foreign film that voters are responding to.  Mirai has been the one foreign film to make a showing in the precursors, expect it to land here too.	Disney has been on a roll at the Oscars since the original Wreck-It Ralph.  While Pixar sequels are usually left out, this has a different feel than its predecessor.  Going to be one of the few mainstream animated films on voter’s minds.	This has not gotten a single precursor mention, but I am including it here because Academy voters have always loved Aardman Animation.  Even when they produce weaker material that doesn’t succeed, like The Pirates! and Shaun the Sheep, the Oscars have nominated them where others haven’t. Not a strong contender, but there aren’t a lot of serious threats.
Runner-Ups
Incredibles 2	The Grinch	Lu, Over the Wall	Night is Short, Walk on Girl	Smallfoot
Pixar is not the sure thing people still think it is.  Especially not Pixar sequels, Toy Story 3 is the only one to receive a nomination. With the response not being as enthusiastic as the original Incredibles this will most likely be left off, despite precursor attention.	Received a PGA nomination and is recent enough in voter’s minds that it stands a chance.  This movie did great financially too.  Illumination has a previous nomination with Despicable Me 2, but that was a long time ago.  Just on the outskirts as a potential spoiler, but not likely.	GKids has surprised with multiple unforeseen nominations before.  They will be primarily campaigning Mirai, but contenders are weak enough that this could get in too.	Same point about GKids, the animated feature nominees can surprise sometimes.	But the animated feature categories can surprise with a smaller mainstream nominee from a studio that isn’t typically rewarded (think Surf’s Up or Ferdinand).  Smallfoot could be that rare type of spoiler, but again it is rare.
Long Shots
Fireworks	Ruben Brandt, Collector	Have a Nice Day	Tito and the Birds	Teen Titans Go! to the Movies
Another potential GKids spoiler.	Sony Pictures Classics has gotten films nominated here, but we would have heard more about this film by now if that was the case.	Adult animation is really tough, not going to happen this year.	Got an Annie Nomination for Best Independent Animated Feature.  Shout Factory has not made it to the Oscars yet, though.	May have to nominate it to balance out the clear Marvel bias with Black Panther and Spider-Verse being contenders.

2018 Academy Award for Best Screenplay Predictions

Best original screenplay looks to belong to Roma, but Green Book or The Favourite could upset.

Best Original Screenplay
Top Predicted Five
Roma	Green Book	The Favourite	Vice	A Quiet Place
Personal film, if it lands with voters they’ll acknowledge it here.  Still has competition.	The film being written by the son of the main character portrayed may bring this one more attention.  But it may be seen as too light of a movie, needs to be a frontrunner to win.	Definitely a screenplay that people like, the film is just a little less popular than some other contenders. The Favourite needs a surge of support to win here, but it is in the realm of possibility.	An uneven, but ambition and creative movie.  Voters might not respond to it, but a good portion of precursors have.  This should get a nomination.	This slot could go to many films. There is a chance that A Quiet Place surprises with Oscar attention and this is one category where it has room to get in.  If voters go for this movie, it could get in here too.
Runner-Ups
Eighth Grade	First Reformed	Cold War	Bohemian Rhapsody	Sorry to Bother You
Been acknowledged here and there for screenplay, but still a smaller early release film.  It is the type of indie that can do well in screenplay though, don’t entirely count it out.	Paul Schrader definitely deserves a career nomination, but this small film lost a lot of steam and is out of the conversation.  Could still surprise, but the support doesn’t seem to be there.	Foreign films can do well in the screenplay categories.  Roma may take some steam away from it, though.	Nobody expected this film to be doing as well as it has in the precursors.  If it gets support for Best Picture a screenplay nomination could follow.  But it isn’t really a writer’s movie.	Truly original with an angry, clear, individual artist’s voice.  Not really in the conversation though.  Too small and too weird, needed a WGA nomination that it didn’t get.
Long Shots
Ballad of Buster Scruggs	The Rider	On the Basis of Sex	Hereditary	Tully
Coens can do well here, but their chances are often over-predicted.  This film will be shut out.	One of the best received films of the year, but it never entered the Oscar conversation in a meaningful way.	This was designed for Oscar recognition, but the focus this year is pretty heavy on male artists and issues. This one just didn’t take off.	Horror is respectable again and Get Out won this category last year.  But A Quiet Place will be the easier film to recognize.   Even if this is more original.	Diablo Cody has yet to be welcomed back to the Oscars and this film has amazing reviews.  But it was too small and too early, the push isn’t there.

Adapted screenplay is going to be where If Beale Street Could Talk gets a win.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Top Predicted Five
If Beale Street Could Talk	Can You Ever Forgive Me?	BlacKkKlansman	A Star is Born	Black Panther
In a year dominated by Original Screenplays this has been the one Adapted Screenplay to make a consistent impact.  Jenkins’ writing of beloved material has been praised, but the film is not being recognized in many other categories.  It will be nominated but may not stand out against the screenplays with a corresponding Best Picture nomination.	Nicole Holofcener is definitely due for Oscar attention and it seems to be secured a nomination.  But this one also will suffer from a lack of Best Picture.	BlacKkKlansman should get nominations in several key categories, including this one.  With a lot of sentiment towards Spike Lee finally being up for an Oscar it may be easier to reward him here than director.  There is a chance that BlacKkKlansman doesn’t win in any of its categories too.	This movie has had a tremendous response and several key precursors for screenplay.  Cooper producing, directing, nominating and writing is definitely part of the movie’s campaign.  It really isn’t a writer’s movie as much as it is about the cinematography and performances.  But as the frontrunner for Best Picture is will get a screenplay nod.	Got a WGA nomination over other contenders.  With Logan getting an Adapted nom last year, this should have no problem getting in.
Runner-Ups
First Man	The Hate U Give	Crazy Rich Asians	Widows	Leave No Trace
Was recognized by the BAFTAs, but the film isn’t doing well anywhere else.	The writers could vote to recognize the late Audrey Wells who died right before the film opened.  But the movie is out of the Oscar conversation.	An popular adaptation of a popular book.  The film has Oscar potential in a few major categories, but it would still be a surprise.	Very complex screenplay from Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, who have not been nominated for their writing before.  The film looks like it will be shut out, however.	Critics awards were really big on this small, early release.  But the major awards were not so this will be shut out too.
Long Shots
Mary Poppins Returns	Boy Erased	Old Man and the Gun	The Death of Stalin	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Does a difficult job of balancing references with the original and advancing its themes.  But the film may be limited to technical awards.	Looked like a bigger contender earlier in the year, but that has not laughed.	David Lowery will be up for an Oscar before too long, but this film never gained awards momentum.	Hit with critics, but not with others.	People are really responding to this movie.  Some voters might consider it for screenplay.

2018 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress Final Predictions

This is the main category without a clear frontrunner.  Regina King had that position, but she missed out on SAG and BAFTA.  It is unsure who else could win besides her, but my money would be on a career win for Amy Adams.  If King gets snubbed for a nomination, Adams will finally get her Oscar.  Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone are a package deal for, they're secured a nomination but one can't win without the other.

That fifth slot is uncertain, with Margot Robbie currently predicted for her second nomination.  But Claire Foy is still in the mix and there is room for a surprise.

Top Predicted Five
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk	Amy Adams, Vice	Rachel Weisz, The Favourite	Emma Stone, The Favourite	Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Missing for SAG and BAFTA places her frontrunner status as being less of a sure thing.  She is still the main contender for her film, but Annapurna may end up campaigning more for Amy Adams.	Missed out a few precursors, but still had a presence in key ones.  Adams is due for a win and this might end up as a career award.  Her character is not the showiest, but the sentiment may prevail.	Can’t nominate one without the other.  These two previous winners have been nominated at the hip all season.  The Favourite is an actor’s movie and all three leads will earn nominations.  But don’t expect a second win for either, it is Colman’s show.  The dual nom is still a sure thing.		Surprised with a SAG nomination after missing previous precursors and just followed up with a BAFTA nom.  After her first nomination last year she may become an Oscar regular.  She will represent the film that is not up for other categories.
Runner-Ups
Claire Foy, First Man	Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased	Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians	Linda Cardellini, Green Book	Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Was a stronger contender earlier in the year, but missed SAG.  The entire film is being overlooked, she still may be the one to represent it. Could get in over Robbie.	Been recognized in a few places. Kidman has been nominated for playing mothers before.  The film looks to be mostly forgotten though.	Early on she had some buzz and was listed as the film’s stand out.  Definitely deserves a career nomination, but the precursors did not recognize her.	She has not been nominated anywhere yet, but if Green Book becomes the film to beat she could follow. Everyone mentioned her in their Globe acceptance speeches as being important to the film.  She’s been a hardworking actress for a long time and deserves awards attention.	Huge surprise nomination at SAG.  If voters go for A Quiet Place they might nominate her here over Mary Poppins.  But the SAG nomination seems to just mean that it is time for her to get Oscar attention.  If the actors nominated her there, she should finally get in for this or her leading role.
Long Shots
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows	Marina De Tavira, Roma	Blythe Danner, What They Had	Natalie Portman, Vox Lux	Danai Gurira, Black Panther
Big breakout of Widows and had a few critic award nominations.  The film has no momentum for Oscars unfortunately.	She was mentioned earlier in the race as a contender, but it doesn’t look like Roma will have any acting contenders.	Seemed like more of a possibility early in the fall.  The film did not take off and Danner will be left out again.	Pundits overpredicted this one, it ended up being a niche critic curiosity more than anything.	Memorable, iconic performance in the biggest movie of the year but no buzz about her.

2018 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor Final Predictions

There have only been seven serious contenders for the entire awards season.  Mahershala Ali is in the lead for his second win, but there seems to be support for Sam Elliott (which surprises me having seen what was essentially a cameo).  Richard E. Grant, Adam Driver and Timothee Chalamet have all been consistently nominated alongside them.  Sam Rockwell has also been nominated here and there and Michael B. Jordan's name has remained in contention.  You won't see a nominee outside of those seven.

Top Predicted Five
Mahershala Ali, Green Book	Sam Elliott, A Star is Born	Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?	Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman	Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Weaker category this year, but it looks like Ali will have his second win.  With his prestigious role in True Detective being marketed heavily it looks like he may have the respect to pull it off.	Won at NBR, but missed a few precursors.  Not a large or showy role at all.  Seems to be a career nomination.  If voters like the movie and his performance he could end up winning.	Been a consistent presence throughout the season.  Talented actor deserving of his first Oscar nom.  Worked out having the right two leads in the right film.	Driver has balanced mainstream and prestige roles wonderfully and has been building towards an Oscar nomination. He’s been nominated even when Washington hasn’t.  He is a sure thing and will represent his ensemble.	The one thing that’s been praised in a film with mixed reviews.  After he came close to winning last year he will be an Oscar mainstay.  His performance deals with a current issue that is underrepresented at the awards.
Runner-Ups
Sam Rockwell, Vice	Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther	Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns	Bryan Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk	Steven Yeun, Burning
Only remaining supporting actor who got multiple precursor nods, although he missed SAG.  This is more of a cameo and impression, but it is a really good one and adds to the film.  Rockwell won on his career nomination last year, voters could acknowledge him again here.  A lot will have to do with how much voters love Vice.	An early favorite that has not been seen in the precursors outside of Critics Choice.  Jordan is now a movie star and this is the closest he’s come to the Oscars in an impressive young career.  It remains to be seen how much of an impact Black Panther will have on the awards.  But it looks like the acting will be shut out barring a huge surprise.	Really nobody has a chance outside of the first seven names I listed.  If any of them miss then it really is anybody’s game.  So I’ll just throw out some far outside potentials like Tony and McCarthur Genius Grant winner, Miranda.  He’s a beloved figure but if he was seriously going for an acting Oscar he would have been playing the game more publicly, which he easily could.	Nobody has worked harder than Henry this year.  With Emmy and Tony attention, an Oscar is next.  And he’s been in plenty of movies this year from Widows, White Boy Rick, Spider-Verse, Hotel Artemis and this Oscar contender.  Unfortunately there is little buzz for Beale Street and his name should have come up by now.	He was acknowledged by a few critics awards, but didn’t catch on with the major ones.  This film is too small to surprise.
Long Shots
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give	Tim Blake Nelson, Ballad of Buster Scruggs	Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite	Hugh Grant, Paddington 2	Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Was named the highlight of the film, but it was quickly forgotten.	Netflix got Blige a nomination last year, but her category was weaker and there is still a streaming bias.	Should have been in the race before now if it was going to happen.  The movie’s buzz is solely about its three leads.	Had a BAFTA nomination and some critic award notices.  Missed out for Florence Foster Jenkins, but this is too goofy for Oscars.	Maybe some one actually saw Widows and nominates someone from the impressive ensemble?  Kaluuya is the most likely, still a huge long shot.