Updated Oscar Predictions as of 10/16

Academy Award for Best Picture

Academy Award for Best Director

Academy Award for Best Actress

Academy Award for Best Actor

Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress

Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor

Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress Predictions- 10/16

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Top Predicted Five
Margot Robbie, Bombshell	Laura Dern, Marriage Story	Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers	Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell	Annette Bening, The Report
Has the best buzz from the movie.  Should be safer than her role as Sharon Tate, there is a danger of vote splits.  But she’s been nominated before and is a popular young star.  This could be her year.	Well-respected actress whose been having somewhat of a comeback the last several years.  With Marriage Story as the film to beat that puts her in place to possibly earn a career win.	Surprising Oscar contender, but she gives a strong, memorable performance in a surprisingly good film.  The buzz is all around her though.  Needs to outlast newer competition, but seems safe for her first nomination.	If The Farewell does well then Shuzhen could have her first nomination.  It is an interesting performance.  Very subtle, no big showy moments.  But there is a love for her character and warmness too her that keeps her very memorable.	Pundits often overpredict Bening.  But this should be her year to come back.  She doesn’t have a chance at winning, but Amazon lacks viable contenders.  This is their most likely push and the category is open enough for it.
Runner-Ups
Taylor Russell, Waves	Nicole Kidman, Bombshell	Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time	Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit	Jennifer Hudson, Cats
The young actors have a lot of the movie’s buzz.  The category is open enough for her to get in if Waves gets Best Picture attention.	Not hearing about her as much as Theron and Robbie.  But Kidman’s career has been great the past several years.  Her and Robbie could both be nominated (ala Stone and Weisz last year).	Considered this a lock until the buzz came for Bombshell.  That is a safer bet for several reasons.  This is an earlier release, there is an attitude that the role is too small and Hollywood voters might not be as comfortable with the portrayal of Sharon Tate.  Still, it is a great performance.  One will need to be pushed harder, potential vote splits.	A bigger contender for Marriage Story, but this year looks to be her moment.  Two acting nominations in one year is rare, but possible.  Could be overshadowed by Thomasin McKenzie.	If Cats works as a movie it will be because Jennifer Hudson’s song works.  The entire musical’s legacy is Memory and if she makes an impact on audiences then she could get nominated.  Unsure if voters will share the internet’s glibness toward the movie.  Could definitely see this being similar to Hathaway in Les Mis.  Also Hudson won for a musical already.
In Contention
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey	Meryl Streep, Little Women	Janelle Monae, Harriet	Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit	Chloe Sevigny, Queen and Slim
Downton Abbey was such a big hit that there will be a push for some nomination.  Maggie Smith as the favorite character and most celebrated actress is the easiest to acknowledge.  With the film potentially being a send off for her this could be a sentimental contender.	Streep has snuck in over stronger contenders time and time again.  It becomes an expectation to acknowledge her.  There is internal competition with Little Women (and her role might not be notable enough).  She could also get in for The Laundromat instead.	Has done great in movies like Moonlight and Hidden Figures.  She is a star and will make it to the Oscars someday.  Harriet needs to gain momentum for her to enter the race this year, though.	Was very well received in last year’s Leave No Trace and is said to be one of the highlights in this movie.  Younger performers can do well in this category.  But she is competing against the more established Johansson.	Received a decent amount of focus in the trailers.  Sevigny is a very good actress who has not had the right Oscar role yet.  If Queen and Slim breaks out with voters then she could go with it.

Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor Predictions- 10/16

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Top Predicted Five
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time	Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes	Sterling K. Brown, Waves	Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day	Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Been nominated three times, this could be his Oscar win.  He gives an easy going movie star performance full of complexity and humor.  The role fits him really well, he seems like the one to beat at this point.	Has not been in the Oscar game for a while, but The Two Popes should get him back.  Expect him to be a lock.	Been on a roll lately with This is Us and several film appearances.  He is said to be the stand-out in the movie.  He is the easiest representative for the small film.  This category is open enough for his first nom.	Has missed every Oscar attempt since 2000.  But Fred Rogers holds a special place in people’s hearts and Tom Hanks holds a similar area.  If he brings Mr. Rogers back to people through his performance he should be a strong contender.  Still, Hanks couldn’t even get nominated for playing Walt Disney…	Marriage Story is currently the film beat and all of the actors are said to be great in it.  Alda has the good notices and seems most likely for the final nomination slot at this point.  But he could be overshadowed by the two leads and have vote splits with Ray Liotta.
Runner-Ups
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy	Song Kang-ho, Parasite	Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit	Al Pacino, The Irishman	John Lithgow, Bombshell
Bound to get nominated again someday and has been said to be Oscar worthy in this role.  Film needs to do well in precursors, but he is in the conversation again.	Foreign language performances seem to do better in Actress categories than Actor ones.  But he is part of what makes Parasite an Oscar contender.  If the film really makes an impact he could get in here.	The adults are getting less praise than the child stars, but there is a courage in Waititi’s role.  It will definitely not sit well with everybody, but if the film works then he could be in the game as an actor as well as director.	Said to be good, he has not had a serious awards contender since his win in 1992.  But again, Netflix has other contenders to push.  And he is competing with Joe Pesci and Harvey Keitel.	Has been said to be great in the movie.  Lithgow is very well-liked and has not been up for an Oscar in a long time.  But the buzz currently seems to be about the women.  The film needs to do great for him to enter the race.
In Contention
Bokeem Woodbine, Queen and Slim	Leslie Odom Jr., Harriet	Matt Damon, Ford V Ferrari	Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse	Jim Carter, The Good Liar
Film is still unseen, but he is highlighted in the trailer.  Woodbine has been a good actor for a long time, this could help him gain awards attention.	Notable Tony award winner for Hamilton.  The buzz is around Erivo, but he Odom is in a good place for awards prestige if the film gains momentum.	Doesn’t feel as flashy as Bale, but they could be a package deal if the film is a major contender.  Bale could still overshadow him like he did Wahlberg in The Fighter.	There’s been a push to recognize Dafoe lately.  He was snubbed a win for The Florida Project and was a surprise nominee for At Eterenity’s Gate.  Film needs to break out from horror ghetto.	Looks to have a great role in the trailers.  With the big success of Downton Abbey, Carter could finally get some awards attention this year.  WB really needs to push this one though.

Academy Award for Best Actress Predictions- 10/16

BEST ACTRESS
Top Predicted Five
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet	Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story	Renee Zellweger, Judy	Charlize Theron, Bombshell	Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Erivo had a terrific year last year with Widows and Bad Times at the El Royale.  She is said to be the big reason to see this movie.  Actors can be nominated for carrying their movies.  Oftentimes the character being portrayed can appeal to voters.  Harriet Tubman is a character who should do that.	With this leading role, her supporting role in Jojo Rabbit and her big Marvel movies (Endgame this year, solo Black Widow next) it definitely seems like it is finally time for Johansson’s first nomination.  She has clearly been working towards this and she should be playing the game very well.  She can get bad press for statements so she might have a tough time winning	This has been a good comeback for an Oscar winner.  Judy Garland is going to be of interest to many Oscar voters.  Doesn’t seem like the film will get traction elsewhere, but she should be a strong lock.	Theron has been cranking out great movies in the past several years without any Oscar attention.  This should finally get her invited back.  The character of Megyn Kelly may be a stumbling block for some voters, but not a major one.  It is time for Theron and Bombshell is going to get its actresses noticed.	Debut performances can be tough sells, Kiki Layne got no notice last year.  But this is a two-hander.  If Kaluuya gets nominated then Turner-Smith will too.  Anticipating the film to be one of the bigger contenders this season.
Runner-Ups
Awkwafina, The Farewell	Alfre Woodard, Clemency	Saoirse Ronan, Little Woman	Lupita Nyong’o, Us	Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
She’s been a star on the rise and gets a chance to prove how great of an actress she is here.  Her performance is keeping the film such a consistent contender.  Expect her to be a figure in precursors.	There was great early word on this performance and that has been echoed by the festivals.  Woodard is a veteran who has not been back since 1983.  The film is very small and she has bigger stars to outshine.	It is amazing how many nominations Ronan has accumulated as such a young age.  She is an Oscar favorite and if this film works then she could easily go with it.	Early release that had amazing buzz for Nyong’o.  She hasn’t had an Oscar role since her win in 2013.  May be forgotten, but Peele led Kaluuya to his nomination too.  This cements her as a movie star, but she needs to be remembered first.	Mirren has not been in serious contention for a while.  But she symbolizes quality to voters and this film good get her back in the game.  This category is too crowded without the film really breaking out.
In Contention
Juliette Binoche, The Truth	Mary Kay Place, Diane	Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love	Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts	Kate Winslet, Blackbird
Previous winner in a well-received smaller film.  The Truth will probably be shut out.  Needs precursors.	Veteran actor who is said to be amazing.  The race seems to have moved on without her.	Manville has gotten in for small British films before, but this one never fully took off.	Well liked young star in a well-liked movie.  Not the heaviest, but could show up in some precursors.	Good reviews, but no American distributor.  Could potentially upset, but won’t be in the US by Oscar time.

Academy Award for Best Actor Predictions- 10/16

BEST ACTOR
Top Predicted Five
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim	Adam Driver, Marriage Story	Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes	Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time	Christian Bale, Ford V Ferrari
Recent nominee for a film that wouldn’t normally get an acting nomination.  This movie looks to be a great showcase for him.  And he is a star on the rise.  If the movie goes over great then he gets in.	Driver’s been on a roll lately and got his first nomination last year.  This year he is also starring in The Report and the next Star Wars.  He and Johansson are a great pair of movie stars.  Both are locks for sure.	Veteran actor who has never been nominated.  This looks like his moment with amazing word about his work.  The better known Hopkins might overshadow him, but expect both to get nominations.	Someone people just associate with Oscars.  Had the perception of being tragically overdue when he won in 2016.  This is his first film since.  Tarantino can get his actors nominated when the films become contenders.  Too early for a second win, but definitely will get nominated.	Bale has been nominated for lesser work before, but this looks a big flashy role that suits his odd energy.  May end up competing with Matt Damon, but he appears to be the lead.  This is the more showy role and the Oscars have rewarded Bale for going showy before.
Runner-Ups
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker	Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory	Robert DeNiro, The Irishman	Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name	Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Consistently the best received thing in his movie.  One of those method performances that voters can get behind.  WB will really push this one and there will be a pressure from fans as well.  Unsure how voters will feel since they already rewarded Ledger for the role.  But the movie was big enough, Phoenix is greatly respected and the conversation isn’t going away.	Banderas has received strong accolades from the international circuit.  He is one of the bigger names to never have received an Oscar nomination.  Unsure how the film will play to voters as it isn’t a traditional Oscar film.  But the performance is said to be strong enough.  With the right push and precursor love he could crack the top five.	DeNiro working with Scorsese again is incredibly appealing.  Pairing him with Pacino, Pesci and Keitel makes this whole movie an event.  He is said to be great, but the de-aging is distracting and doesn’t work for everybody.  Netflix has stronger contenders with Driver and Pryce.  But DeNiro could get more support based on the cost and hype of The Irishman.	Same thing as DeNiro, there are other acting contenders that Netflix has to push.  But this is indeed a comeback for a beloved movie star with a previous nomination.  The film doesn’t have as strong of a reception as the other Netflix contenders which hurts the overall chances.  Need to see if voters respond to Netflix movies like theatrical fare or if they get forgotten quickly like most streaming films.	This movie isn’t strongly on the radar, but it has a solid director and great cast.  McKellen does great work with Bill Condon and this looks like a terrific showcase for the well-liked veteran.  If Warner Bros. chooses to push this film then we could see McKellen, Mirren and even Jim Carter enter the race as late contenders.
In Contention
Taron Egerton, Rocketman	Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit	Daniel Craig, Knives Out	Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy	Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day
After how well Rami Malek did last year you would think that this film and performance would be stronger.  But it has been out since May and it just is not part of the conversation.  Still, Egerton is amazing and complex in the role.  The movie should be considered for the Oscars.  He is waiting for bigger names to fall off though.	The best part of Jojo Rabbit is said to be the child actors.  If the film becomes a strong contender then the young stars could gain traction.  But it isn’t likely with so many veterans competing in this category.  But it is very rare that actors that young get acting nominations, let alone in the Best Actor in a Leading Role category.	He received great notices out of Toronto.  Craig has not been seriously up for an Oscar yet and this seems like a movie star role that could get him that kind of attention.  Knives Out still is not a traditional Oscar movie and he is playing a different type of character.  But if it is good, then it is good.  Sometimes voters respond to good.	He was a snub last year and is bound to get a nomination before long.  He received positive notice from festivals.  It doesn’t seem like the film is the strongest contender.  But there is a chance that WB pushes that over Joker or The Good Liar.	The marketing belongs to Hanks, but Rhys is the lead.  He is said to be very good.  But Hanks might get all of the attention.  Rhys is not as well-known and the movie’s appeal is seeing Mister Rogers.  The movie really needs to get noticed for Rhys to break out.

Academy Award for Best Director Predictions- 10/16

BEST DIRECTOR
Top Predicted Five
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time	Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story	James Mangold, Ford V Ferrari	Melina Matsoukas, Queen and Slim	Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Has never won and a lot of the discussion with this film is about how he has matured.  Controversy may hurt its chances of winning Best Picture, but controversy is Tarantino’s brand.  Affection for him could finally get his directing win.  He is also the most popular main contender.	Been a great filmmaker for a long time who just hasn’t had that great Oscar package until now.  Anticipating huge things for his film, if it becomes the one to beat then he could win along with it.  He needs to really rack up the precursors first.	Solid director who has worked on Oscar contenders before.  There is an easy narrative with him making an Oscar film after a comic book one (which was notably nominated for screenplay).  Won’t win, but he and the film are reliable nominees.	First time directors can get in when their films do well at the Oscars.  Voters are still prejudiced with gender and race.  She is competing directly with other black and female filmmakers for a slot.  But the strength of the movie and her cast should get her onto the board.	Recognizable to American film snobs with Snowpiercer and Okja.  A highly respected international filmmaker.  With Pawel Pawlikowski’s nomination last year the directing branch is much more open to foreign-language films.  Parasite looks to be that strong.
Runner-Ups
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit	Martin Scorsese, The Irishman	Jay Roach, Bombshell	Kasi Lemmons, Harriet	Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Career is in the right place for this.  He has made unique indie films and kept his voice with a mainstream hit.  He is enough of name now and his film is very bold.  With him also acting he is an easy figure to latch onto.  If voters respond to this film then he could get a nomination like Yorgos Lanthimos did last year.	Always on the Oscar radar and he is making a crime film again.  There is a lot of respect for Scorsese and if his streaming movie plays to voters like his theatrical ones then he should get in.  Still a little doubtful with how much Netflix is able to push and if the film will even work for traditionalists.  Still, it is Scorsese.	Has not been close to Oscars before, but he has a career with well received comedies, political biopics and HBO Emmy winners.  Bombshell does not seem like a director’s movie, Roach doesn’t have a stamp like Adam McKay.  But it the film resonates then he could get in with it.	May be expecting too much out of the film, right now the buzz isn’t around the directing.  But I won’t rule out a well-made biopic about important history.  Looking at Kasi Lemmons’ career she reminds me of Kathryn Bigelow pre-Hurt Locker.  Good director with some great movies who just hasn’t had an Oscar film yet.	The Farewell has already stayed in the race pretty firmly.  As other films fall off this should continue as a viable contender.  Newer directors can get noticed for smaller films when it corresponds with Best Picture (i.e. Benh Zeitlin).  The Farewell is not a flashy movie so the directing may get overlooked.
In Contention
Sam Mendes, 1917	Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day	Jordan Peele, Us	Greta Gerwig, Little Women	Rian Johnson, Knives Out
There are pundits putting a lot behind 1917.  And if it is a technical marvel then Mendes could get in.  Don’t see a huge push to get him a second Oscar though and generally skeptical about the film’s strength in major categories unless it just ends up being amazing and innovative.	Her career is in a great place, especially with last year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me? having been a solid contender.  There is great word of mouth for this one and it should get to the heartstrings.  Needs to outlast heavier films overall for her to be a contender.	A very strong nominee two years ago.  Us has not had the same impact as Get Out, but it is still an original horror film that has made a lot of money and great reviews.  This is where he could become an Oscar favorite if he is remembered from earlier in the year.	Like Peele, she was a notable nominee two years ago.  Little Women is one of the film’s we haven’t seen yet so it is unknown how the film is.  If it is a late contender that builds steam she could get in.  Doesn’t feel like a director’s movie though, may do better in screenplay.	Response from the festival circuit was really strong, this is a great murder mystery.  What is appealing about this film is Rian Johnson’s voice.  If that one gets enough critical and precursor notice then he could get in as well.  But the film really needs to stand out among more traditional Oscar fare.