Best Supporting Actress Predictions

            

This category is centered on six main contenders and has very little room for surprises.  Amy Adams is a staple in this category and has been well received in Her, but her main campaign will be in lead for American Hustle.  A SAG nomination for best ensemble keeps Jennifer Garner in very slight contention, but her nomination is extremely unlikely and dependent on a Dallas Buyers Club receiving a Best Picture nomination.  Lea Seydoux has received minor notice for Blue is the Warmest Color, but the focus has been mainly on her co-star and a foreign language performance is not likely here.  Margo Martindale began the year as a potential frontrunner for August: Osage County, but that did not go anywhere.  Every year pundits always seem to overpredict Carey Mulligan, who was well received in Inside Llewyn Davis but that has not translated to precursors.  If Fruitvale Station hits with voters then Melonie Diaz could surprise, but that is an extremely slim chance.  Margot Robbie gave a very strong debut in Wolf of Wall Street, but the controversy of that movie will keep her from a surprise nomination.

    

Sarah Paulson was a strong contender before precursor season, where she has been missing out.  She has the advantage of 12 Years a Slave being a frontrunner, but the disadvantage of competing with a more popular co-star.  Traditionally this is the category where Woody Allen films do well.  Sally Hawkins received a Globe nomination and has been considered to be snubbed by some for previous work.  If anyone surprises out of the main predicted six, I am guessing it is one of these two.

             

Octavia Spencer is a recent winner who received a NBR award, but she has missed out on SAG and the Globes.  Fruitvale Station is not as popular as her competitors' and her role is somewhat small for this category.  However there is a possibility that voters will reward the film by nominating her if they don't nominate the film.  Jennifer Lawrence is the current it-girl that won last year.  She is very popular, well-liked and has a type of role that does well in this category.  There is some backlash towards her and her win last year, which could hurt her campaign for American Hustle.   June Squibb surprised in Nebraska and was a stand-out in it.  This category does not always reward older actresses, but she has been consistent in the precursors.  These are the three competing for the final two slots.

    

Julia Roberts has been consistent in precursors to consider her a lock.  However a win is not expected as August: Osage County has not been all that well received, she is playing too much against type for some and her career has been in poor shape.  Despite missing a Globe nomination Oprah Winfrey is a lock for The Butler.  She is a powerful figurehead who received a majority of the movie's acclaim.  It seems that she earned frontrunner status too early in the race for her to win.  The newcomer Lupita Nyong'o seems as if she will win for 12 Years a Slave.  At this point in the race this is the only really undisputed winner in any major category.

Predicted Five:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (winner)
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Runner-Ups: Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The Predicted Five

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Pros: Has been the frontrunner for a long time.  One of the most powerful and well-known celebrities.  Reviews are mainly about her, many people are excited for her return to acting.
Cons: Has not been acting in almost thirty years.  There is a danger to catching fire too early in the race.  Early release may hurt her chances.

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Pros: Been consistently recognized as one of the year's break out performances.  Has received as much acclaim as Ejiofor and Fassbender.  Could move up to frontrunner status once the film is released.
Cons: Unknown actress.  Don't see her missing out on a nomination at least.

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Pros: Well known actress in one of the main roles in the adaptation of the well-loved play.  A much more Oscar friendly role than the once major star has received in a while.

Cons: Not as popular anymore, hasn't been in contention since 2007 or nominated since her 2000 win.  Being removed from leading actress may be a sign of lack of faith in her performance.  Internal competition with Margo Martindale.  Film has not been too well received and this could be seen as category fraud.

Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave

Pros: Gives one of the best reviewed performances in this year's best picture frontrunner.  In a strong ensemble cast, the strength of Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender and Lupita Nyong'o cold carry her into the race. 

Cons: Internal competition with Lupita Nyong'o, who is the more popular contender.  Mainly unknown actress.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Pros: Recent winner who gives a small, powerful performance in this well received film.  The kind of role that does well in this category.  Fruitvale Station is bound to receive at least one acting nomination, this is the most likely contender.

Cons: A smaller role.  The early, small release may keep the movie from being a major contender.  Needs some precursor notice.

Runner-Ups

June Squibb, Nebraska

Pros: If Nebraska is a strong enough contender and the two leads gain enough traction she could earn a nomination.

Cons: Unknown actress.  Needs the film to be a hit for her to be a contender.

Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

Pros: Prolific actress who has never had an Oscar role before.  This is the role in play that won a Tony. Starring in a terrible CBS comedy did not hurt Melissa McCarthy's chances in this category.

Cons: Competition with Julia Roberts.  Not a well known name.  The movie may just not hit with voters.

Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis

Pros: Well liked young actress with a well received role in this Coen Brothers film.

Cons: Has not been in serious contention since her nomination in 2009.  Coens films don't always earn acting nominations.

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Pros: Current it-girl, won leading actress last year in another David O. Russell movie.  Gives her a meatier role, getting to play a suffering wife and mother.  Received the "and" starring credit in a very impressive cast.

Cons: Many felt she did not deserve her win last year.  Being popular brings detractors.  May be too soon to her win.  Competition with Adams if she goes to supporting.

Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers' Club

Pros: The strength of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto as nominees could lead her to a nomination.

Cons: Has never seriously been up for an Oscar.  Little buzz around her.  Needs the movie to do well.

Also in Contention

The Counselor opens this week and Cameron Diaz has received a majority of the buzz from the film.  However early reviews are not great and the movie does not seem like an Oscar movie.  Amy Adams is up for leading actress but has also received good reviews for Her.  Sally Hawkins has her supporters for Blue Jasmine, however that movie's buzz has died down.  Lea Seydoux could join the race for Blue is the Warmest Color if the film plays with voters.  Melonie Diaz may find her way in this fairly open category for Fruitvale Station if that film does well.

Best Supporting Actress Predictions 7/3/13

Top 5

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Pros: Has received four nominations since 2005, is very well liked and chooses great roles.  Has received a nomination from a David O. Russell movie before and this looks to be a great ensemble which is bound to earn at least one nomination.  The role of a mistress and a criminal is definitely out of her traditional character type which should garner attention.  Also gave the best performance in this year's Man of Steel.
Cons: This is a very large cast and it is unknown how large her role is, she could be overshadowed by others.  Also potential split votes for Spike Jonze's Her.  And maybe this is not the right role for Adams' win.

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Pros: A well-known actress in need of a comeback.  Working alongside Meryl Streep and other great performers.  This is a lead role that is likely to be campaigned as supporting and those often do well.  With Harvey Weinstein, Grant Heslov and George Clooney as producers she is looking at a definite shot at a second win.

Cons: Roberts has definitely fallen out of favor.  There is potential backlash if she is nominated in supporting, also internal competition in both leading and supporting categories.

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Pros: Still one of the most popular and influential human beings on the planet.  If she is acting again she will get the word out and she should be able to use her considerable power to earn Oscar buzz.

Cons: Still unsure about the quality of the movie, earlier release date, unsure how large her role will be. It has also been a long time since Oprah has been in a movie.

Cameron Diaz, The Counselor

Pros: Have read that this is the role that could get audiences to take her seriously.  Diaz is definitely talented and has not come too close to a nomination yet.

Cons: People may be unwilling to take her seriously, she does not have the most Oscar friendly career and is not often seen as a great actress.  Internal competition with Penelope Cruz.

Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

Pros: A lot of early buzz around this role.  While Martindale is not as popular as Streep and Roberts she is just as talented and has made a solid career as a character actress on stage, screen and television.  This is her shot at getting recognized in film.

Cons: A lot of internal competition and she may not be well known enough.  Definitely in contention though.

Runners-Up

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Pros: A recent winner who has the role of a mother in a Sundance hit.  This looks to be a completely different character from The Help and one that should help Octavia Spencer's career.

Cons: It is Michael B. Jordan's story.  Still unsure of how this movie will be released or campaigned.  The category should be open enough to keep her in contention though.

Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club

Pros: A talented, likable actress that just has not received the right role.  But as evidenced by movies like Juno she has more to give than we often think.  A supporting role in this movie could earn her a nomination.

Cons: Unsure of how this movie will be received or the size of her role.  McConaughey may receive all of the accolades.

Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips

Pros: Talented, hard working actress that has not received awards attention in a while.  The role of a worried wife can lead to a nomination.

Cons: Paul Greengrass is known more for his style than actors.  Role could be too small.

Michelle Pfeiffer, The Family

Pros: Michelle Pfeiffer has been able to transition well into older roles.  Pfeiffer stole the show in the trailer, adding a lot of spunk to the role of a wife and mother.  Her comedic ability may save the movie and I could see her as an out of left field candidate.

Cons: The movie looks pretty goofy and similar to recent DeNiro disappointments.  There is a chance she could stand out, but there is a chance that voters just ignore the whole thing.

Penelope Cruz, The Counselor

Pros: Popular with the Academy and chooses great roles.  Part of a great ensemble, could earn her fourth Oscar nomination.

Cons: Been reading that Cameron Diaz has the better supporting role.

Also in Contention:

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyen Davis), Lupita Nyong'O (12 Years a Slave), Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives), Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station), Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)