2016 Best Actress Final Predictions

This is an incredibly strong year for leading actresses.  There will be a lot of quality contenders left out.  While there are so many strong actresses there is no real clear frontrunner.  This could go several ways.  Have Emma Stone as the current frontrunner, especially if La La Land sweeps the night.  Amy Adams has had five previous nominations, she is definitely due.  But we should have seen her win more during the precursors for Arrival if it was her time.  Earlier it seemed like Natalie Portman would take it for Jackie, but that film has fallen out of the conversation.  Her Golden Globe loss was notable.  Isabelle Huppert could get a veteran vote for a challenging role in Elle, foreign language films can often do well here.  One of these four will win, Stone has the current edge as she is attach to a potential Best Picture frontrunner.  All are assured nominations.

That would leave the final slot going to Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins.  The film performed well and the Golden Globes proved how beloved the Oscar staple continues to be.  This won't earn her a fourth Oscar, but she is most likely going to have a nomination.  Although if there is a surprise, she is the one to go.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actress:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Emma Stone, La La Land	Amy Adams, Arrival	Natalie Portman, Jackie	Isabelle Huppert, Elle	Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
No frontrunner for this category.  You could make the case for four actresses winning.  Right now Emma Stone seems most likely.  Well-liked, young talent with a previous nomination who is starring in one of the Best Picture frontrunners.  Not a strong lock, but until a SAG winner shakes it up, she seems most likely.	Amy Adams has lost five times before.  She is definitely due and she has had a good year.  Arrival did great business and she also played the Oscar game with Nocturnal Animals.  However she should have been winning more in the precursors if she was going to have her career win.	Seemed like the frontrunner earlier, but the film has almost completely fallen out of the awards conversation.  She should get a nomination, but it doesn’t seem strong enough for her to second win.  Her career hasn’t been strong enough in recent years and this isn’t a strong enough film to give a fairly young actress a second leading Oscar win.	The Golden Globe winner that many seemed to think wouldn’t make the final cut. Huppert is a veteran actress in a powerful, controversial role.  Her performance has the edge her competition lacks.  This is also the category where foreign language performances can do well.  She may end up with the Oscar in the end.	Her Golden Globe speech clinched her Oscar nomination.  Factor in Hugh Grant’s likely nomination and there is enough strength for Streep.  She has been nominated pretty consistently in recent years over strong competition (August: Osage County, Into the Woods).  She will continue her streak as being an Oscar mainstay.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women	Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train	Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures	Ruth Negga, Loving	Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Bening is one that pundits seem to overestimate.  She is well respected, but is inconsistent when it comes to the Oscars.  Her film isn’t strong enough, but she has remained in the conversation just enough to stay a runner-up.	Not really an Oscar film, but Blunt received a surprise SAG and BAFTA nomination for the role.  Rosamund Pike was nominated for a similar pulpy role a few years ago.  Blunt is on her way to an Oscar nomination, especially after missing for Sicario last year.  It isn’t a sure thing, but she is still in the running.	Previous Oscar nominee with a popular TV series.  This film should be fresh in voters’ minds and is doing great at the box-office.  It isn’t the showiest Oscar bait, but Henson is strong enough for continued consideration.	Negga is falling out of contention with stronger competition outperforming her.  She is not a name yet, while the others in consideration are a bit more established.  Loving needs some Best Picture love for her to make the cut, but it seems less and less likely.	Chastain missed her Oscar a few years ago and will definitely earn her way back.  Miss Sloane did well enough, but she is a fairly weak contender at this stage of the race.  She will have to wait for another year.
THE LONG SHOTS
Rebecca Hall, Christine	Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship	Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals	Sally Field, Hello, My Name is Doris	Marion Cotillard, Allied
Hall has done a lot of great work, but has never been up for Oscar consideration.  This is her edgiest performance, but the film seems too small.	Surprise arthouse hit from earlier in the year and the best chance Beckinsale has ever had at an Oscar nomination.   Not strong enough though.	Bolstering Adams Oscar credentials is another baity film.  Nocturnal Animals is not a sure thing, but some voting bodies have responded to it.  Not going to overshadow Arrival, but definitely worth mentioning.	Veteran actress with a great late in life lead role.  This was released too early for Field to make the cut.	Cotillard is always interesting in Oscar season.  She almost always has one role in early contention, but they usually fall off by the time the Oscar nominations are announced.  This year is no different.

Best Actress Predictions

                

Normally this is easily the weakest category, but this year there have been plenty of great female performances that have gotten notice.  None of these really have a chance, but if there is a surprise it is out of this group (although extremely unlikely).  The popular Jennifer Lawrence was well loved for Catching Fire, which has been received extremely well by critics and audiences, despite its lack of Oscar potential.  Greta Gerwig gets her closest to an Oscar race yet with her Golden Globe nomination for Frances Ha.  Almost it-girl Shailene Woodley has gotten a lot of notice for her role in the spectacularly received Spectacular Now.  Previous nominee Rooney Mara has three movies out this year, with Ain't Them Bodies Saints as her best chance.  The Artist nominee Berenice Bejo won at Cannes for The Past, but there is a stronger foreign language contender this year.  Lake Bell has been almost universally praised for her writing, directing and acting in In a World.  Oscar winner and five time nominee and Kate Winslet, has been well-received in the weakly campaigned Labor Day.   TV icon and recent Emmy winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus has a perfect film vehicle in Enough Said, although a major TV star rarely transitions to the Oscars.  Out of these Bejo, Winslet and Louis-Dreyfus are the only three that have anywhere close to a chance at a surprise nomination but even those three are very slim.

     

Julie Delpy has a bit of a better chance for Before Midnight, she is a respected actress returning to a well-received franchise.  Nominating her could be a nomination for the film.  Short Term 12 was one of the best reviewed films of the year and Brie Larson has received raves from it.  The film is too small and she is too young for her to have much of a chance.  As foreign language performances can do well in this category the much talked about Adele Exarchopoulos stands a chance for the provocative and potentially controversial Blue is the Warmest Color.  That movie seems likely to be regulated to foreign film though.

    

Now we are on to the six actresses that the race comes down to.  Meryl Streep is often considered to be a given.  She did just finally win her third Oscar and August: Osage County is not all that well received.  I would not be surprise if she needs to sit out a few Oscar races before getting another nomination.  Judi Dench, who is often in the race early on but has not been nominated in seven years, stands a chance at returning to the Oscars for Philomena.  I think people are underestimating Amy Adams for American Hustle who is the only one of the six main contenders without a prior win.  Adams has four nominations and is definitely considered overdue.  This is a role with a lot of sex appeal, that is missing from the other actresses, but I could be overestimating her as she has done the worst in the precursors out of the top six.

       

Despite a somewhat weak response to Saving Mr. Banks by some Emma Thompson has consistently gotten noticed.  Sandra Bullock has also done the unthinkable by becoming a lock for a special effects driven 3D movie in Gravity. Potential accusations of the computer animation doing more could keep her from a second win.  After many years away from the Oscars Cate Blanchett returns having been remembered well from the early release of Blue Jasmine.

Predicted Five:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Judi Dench, Philomena
Runner-Up: Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

            

This category is centered on six main contenders and has very little room for surprises.  Amy Adams is a staple in this category and has been well received in Her, but her main campaign will be in lead for American Hustle.  A SAG nomination for best ensemble keeps Jennifer Garner in very slight contention, but her nomination is extremely unlikely and dependent on a Dallas Buyers Club receiving a Best Picture nomination.  Lea Seydoux has received minor notice for Blue is the Warmest Color, but the focus has been mainly on her co-star and a foreign language performance is not likely here.  Margo Martindale began the year as a potential frontrunner for August: Osage County, but that did not go anywhere.  Every year pundits always seem to overpredict Carey Mulligan, who was well received in Inside Llewyn Davis but that has not translated to precursors.  If Fruitvale Station hits with voters then Melonie Diaz could surprise, but that is an extremely slim chance.  Margot Robbie gave a very strong debut in Wolf of Wall Street, but the controversy of that movie will keep her from a surprise nomination.

    

Sarah Paulson was a strong contender before precursor season, where she has been missing out.  She has the advantage of 12 Years a Slave being a frontrunner, but the disadvantage of competing with a more popular co-star.  Traditionally this is the category where Woody Allen films do well.  Sally Hawkins received a Globe nomination and has been considered to be snubbed by some for previous work.  If anyone surprises out of the main predicted six, I am guessing it is one of these two.

             

Octavia Spencer is a recent winner who received a NBR award, but she has missed out on SAG and the Globes.  Fruitvale Station is not as popular as her competitors' and her role is somewhat small for this category.  However there is a possibility that voters will reward the film by nominating her if they don't nominate the film.  Jennifer Lawrence is the current it-girl that won last year.  She is very popular, well-liked and has a type of role that does well in this category.  There is some backlash towards her and her win last year, which could hurt her campaign for American Hustle.   June Squibb surprised in Nebraska and was a stand-out in it.  This category does not always reward older actresses, but she has been consistent in the precursors.  These are the three competing for the final two slots.

    

Julia Roberts has been consistent in precursors to consider her a lock.  However a win is not expected as August: Osage County has not been all that well received, she is playing too much against type for some and her career has been in poor shape.  Despite missing a Globe nomination Oprah Winfrey is a lock for The Butler.  She is a powerful figurehead who received a majority of the movie's acclaim.  It seems that she earned frontrunner status too early in the race for her to win.  The newcomer Lupita Nyong'o seems as if she will win for 12 Years a Slave.  At this point in the race this is the only really undisputed winner in any major category.

Predicted Five:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (winner)
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Runner-Ups: Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

A Chrstmas Carol Fantasy Cast

Robert Downey Jr. as Ebenezer Scrooge
One of the top celebrities working today.  A likable actor who can get away with playing unlikable characters.  A natural performer that could bring a lot to the character of Scrooge.  Can do a very convincing British accent and he personally knows what it is like to have a life change for the better.

Other Potential Choices: Hugh Laurie, Christian Bale, Hugh Jackman, Alec Baldwin, Eddie Murphy, Sam Rockwell, Tom Hanks, Jude Law, J.K. Simmons, Steve Martin, Michael J. Fox

Kristen Wiig as Cratchit
I would take a cue from Scrooged and recast Bob Cratchit as a single mother.  A mother who is looking forward to spending Christmas with her child is a great take to have on the honorable character.  Kristen Wiig can play timid and personal while still expressing joy.

Other Potential Choices: Judy Greer, Joan Cusack, Tig Notaro, Julia Roberts

Morgan Freeman as Jacob Marley
There is nothing quite like getting a talking to from Morgan Freeman.  Glory, Shawshank Redemption, and pretty much every other movie has Morgan Freeman putting someone in their place with an eloquent, intimidating speech.  If Morgan Freeman as a ghost told me to heed the warning of three spirits I would take him seriously.

Other Potential Choices: Andre Braugher, Ed Harris, George Clooney, Willem Dafoe, Samuel L. Jackson

Julie Andrews as The Ghost of Christmas Past
Instead of going with The Ghost of Christmas Past as a child, having some age and experience would be an interesting take.  Julie Andrews is a legendary entertainer that commands respect.  There is a warmness to her, but she can also be intimidating.

Other Potential Choices: Angela Lansbury, Carol Burnett, Doris Roberts, Bonnie Bartlett

Dwayne Johnson as The Ghost of Christmas Present
The Rock is huge in physique and in personality.  He is a larger than life entertainer and one of the most likable people on the planet.  There is a sense of joy to him.  Not sure how he would look with a full beard and a wreath on his head, but he could definitely act the part.

Other Potential Choices: Terry Crews, Will Smith, John Ratzenberger, Ken Marino, John Rhys-Davies, Leonard Maltin (odd choice, but Maltin has one of the best smiles and could be fun in the role)

Doug Jones as The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come
This is the spirit that traditionally does not speak.  Casting an actor who can be expressive without dialogue will be important. 

Other Potential Choices: Andy Serkis, Bill Hader

Alfred Molina as Fezziwig
Fezziwig needs an actor who can just have fun.  While Molina is traditionally cast as a villain he is a diverse entertainer that would be fun to see in a different role.  He can ham it up and can do a lot with small roles like these.

Other Potential Choices: Michael Keaton, Christopher Walken, Jason Alexander, Kelsey Grammer, Joe Lo Truglio, Mark Hamill

Neil Patrick Harris as Fred
Youthful appearance, natural performer and extremely likable.  Fred needs to sincerely love Christmas and be a good enough actor to subtly show some love towards his cold uncle.

Other Potential Choices: Eddie Redmayne, Jake Lacey, Skylar Astin, Donald Glover, Aziz Ansari, Chris Pine, Tobey Maguire

Maya Rudolph as Belle
Maya Rudolph is a great actress that does not get enough work.  Scrooge's former love needs an actress that is just naturally likable.  Rudolph can play a love interest and bring a lot to underwritten characters.  You need to be able to understand why this woman means a lot to Scrooge and Rudolph can embody that.

Other Potential Choices: Zooey Deschanel, Amy Adams, Rosario Dawson, Lake Bell, Kristen Bell, Anne Hathaway

Jason Sudeikis and Charlie Day as Collectors for the Poor
Casting a duo in the role of the charity workers that are turned away by Scrooge could be a lot of fun.  Sudeikis and Day have incredible chemistry.  They have done great work together in It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Saturday Night Live, Going the Distance and Horrible Bosses.

Other Potential Choices: Jake Johnson and Damon Wayans Jr., Fred Armisen and Carrie Brownstein, Kate Micucci and Riki Lindhome, Jordan Peele and Keegan Michael Key, Anthony Daniels and Kenny Baker

Kevin Spacey as Charles Dickens
A Christmas Carol needs a classy, eloquent narrator.  I am surprised that Kevin Spacey has not hosted any award shows before, because he seems like a natural fit for that sort of performance.  He is a trained stage actor with an amazing voice.  Would be the perfect celebrity to tie this all together and keep it moving.

Other Potential Choices: James Earl Jones, Seth MacFarlane, Craig Ferguson, Sean Hayes, Bob Balaban, Robert Lipton, William Daniels