2016 Final Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The nominees for this category seemed set in stone a month ago.  All the precursors pretty much agree on this lineup.  Viola Davis will finally win her Oscar for Fences.  Michelle Williams could surprise if Manchester by the Sea sweeps the night.  But Viola has this in the bag.

The other remaining slots are going to go to Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman for Lion and Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures.  Greta Gerwig and Janelle Monae both had good years in multiple films, but aren't strong enough to break into the five nominees.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Supporting Actress:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Viola Davis, Fences	Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea	Naomie Harris, Moonlight	Nicole Kidman, Lion	Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Hard-working, veteran actress with previous Oscar nominations.  She was once a frontrunner for The Help and lost to Streep.  It is Viola’s time and this is an amazing performance that none of these others are matching.	A critical favorite actress who has not won at the Oscars yet.  She is the one who could surprise, but she is going to have to wait longer.	Actress who has been around a long-time that has not been seriously up for an Oscar until now.  Moonlight gives her a small, but pivotal role.  She will ride the film’s good will to her first nomination.	Despite not being a big star anymore, Kidman can still stay in the Oscar conversation.  This is her first successful awards bait role in a while.  She has been up for enough precursors to get a nomination.	Octavia hasn’t been back to the Oscars since she won for The Help (even though she has done consistently strong work, namely in Fruitvale Station).  It is time for her to be recognized again.  She has some internal competition with Monae, but Spencer has been getting the precursor nods.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women	Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures	Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky	Molly Shannon, Other People	Janelle Monae, Moonlight
Gerwig is a critical, indie darling who hasn’t been up for the Oscars yet.  Pundits keep mentioning her in this role, but she’s missed out on the precursors.  Still not Gerwig’s time.	Monae has been having a good year with this and Moonlight.  She has as good of a chance at upsetting as anybody.  Although she will probably miss out this year, she can ride this year to future nominations.	Mirren is one of those names that is always in contention, even if people aren’t talking much about her.  This was a well-received film, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a campaign in place.	Comedic performer delivering a dramatic performance can sometimes be a winning formula, but we would have seen Molly show up more before now if anything was going to happen.	Again, she’s had a good year and is very good in a small role.  There aren’t too many other names to seriously consider.  But if she makes it for anything it will be Hidden Figures.
THE LONG SHOTS
Greta Gerwig, Jackie	Margo Martindale, The Hollars	Margaret Bowman, Hell or High Water	Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women	Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Gerwig has also been in the conversation for Jackie, but that film isn’t a strong contender.  Portman isn’t a strong enough acting contender to carry Gerwig to a nomination for this film.	Veteran actress that has been in the Oscar conversation early on before.  She needs the right role, because this film has been all but forgotten.	Not a big name, but she had the small waitress role that kind of stole the show.  Hell or High Water is going to be up for enough Oscars that this could have been conceivable in another year.	With this and Live by Night, Elle Fanning is definitely working towards Oscar consideration.  But neither film will be strong enough to carry her.	Mbatha-Raw is just waiting for her breakout role.  She is a hardworking actress that critics like, but not going to be her year yet.

Non-Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

I have not yet seen Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine, nor Julia Roberts in August: Osage County.  I thought that Jennifer Lawrence was fine in American Hustle, but not the eye-opening performance many found.  June Squibb was an absolute scene-stealer in the best way in Nebraska and earned a well deserved nomination.  Newcomer Lupita Nyong'o gave the best showing of the five with her difficult role in 12 Years a Slave.

Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
Melonie Diaz gave an incredibly impressive debut in Fruitvale Station.  She plays Oscar Grant's long suffering girlfriend.  And in the hands of Diaz this character certainly suffers, but she also loves and supports.  This is a smart character that is not just dependent on a man, Diaz gifts her with a lot of strength that is important later on in the movie.  Diaz has great chemistry with Michael B. Jordan and that incredibly expands the world of the lead character.  One of many performers that I really hope to see again soon.

Adepero Oduye, 12 Years a Slave

Crying on film is sometimes seen as cheap and manipulative.  It is certainly true that actors will cry for an Oscar, but there are still performers who can break down and make the audience feel.  I remember Adepero Oduye's character vividly, even with her limited screentime.  Oduye gives one of the most harrowing portrayals of a grieving mother that I have ever seen.  There is just something about the way she constantly cries after being separated from her child that is so tragic.  And then there is her standing up to Solomon Northrup for her feelings.  After being yelled at to stop crying she turns around and lashes out on the film's leading character.  It is one of the most powerful moments of an incredibly powerful film.

Margot Robbie, Wolf of Wall Street
There are certainly sex bomb roles that rely solely on sex appeal.  Girls are definitely cast just because they look pretty.  Then there is Margot Robbie who is portraying a very sexual role and forces you to acknowledge her acting.  Margot Robbie completely owns every scene she is in and is an intimidating force against the much more experienced Leonardo DiCaprio.  There is a fearlessness to her character and an intimidation that sticks with you.  This is the type of character that can affect the superficial Jordan Belfort.  Robbie in the role of a victim really has some incredible strength that is one of the most memorable things about the long film.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
She may be too young for the role and may not have much screen time, but you don't care because Octavia Spencer owns every second of screen time as Oscar Grant's mother.  One of the film's many highlights is a scene between an incarcerated Oscar Grant and his mother.  The scene is reliant on its two actors and Octavia Spencer gives a tour de force performance.  She shows love to her son, but she also shows disappointment.  There is something that sticks with you about Octavia Spencer's expressions in the jail.  There is so much emotion coming out of her small performance that fuels the rest of the movie.  Octavia Spencer helps the audience understand that Oscar Grant was a man with a mother who loved him and demanded better of him.  Which is of course so tragic that he lived up to that, but not for long enough.

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Early buzz was all around Oprah in this role.  She may have been overhyped, I remember seeing this with high expectations and not thinking that her performance was anything special.  But after looking back upon my two viewings this really was a great performance.  It was not a big, showy role but she supports the movie.  She completes the family that is made up of Forest Whitaker and David Oyelowo. She shows conflict in Whitaker's home life while maintaining the family's connection with Oyelowo.  Oprah really represents the home life and family aspects of the Civil Rights movement.  She shows a side that isn't fighting externally, but struggling with some very relatable performances.  Getting her to act again was great for this movie.

Other Great Supporting Performances:

Alison Brie (Kings of Summer), Evangeline Lilly (The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug), Jena Malone (The Hunger Game: Catching Fire), Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave), Alfre Woodard (12 Years a Slave)

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

            

This category is centered on six main contenders and has very little room for surprises.  Amy Adams is a staple in this category and has been well received in Her, but her main campaign will be in lead for American Hustle.  A SAG nomination for best ensemble keeps Jennifer Garner in very slight contention, but her nomination is extremely unlikely and dependent on a Dallas Buyers Club receiving a Best Picture nomination.  Lea Seydoux has received minor notice for Blue is the Warmest Color, but the focus has been mainly on her co-star and a foreign language performance is not likely here.  Margo Martindale began the year as a potential frontrunner for August: Osage County, but that did not go anywhere.  Every year pundits always seem to overpredict Carey Mulligan, who was well received in Inside Llewyn Davis but that has not translated to precursors.  If Fruitvale Station hits with voters then Melonie Diaz could surprise, but that is an extremely slim chance.  Margot Robbie gave a very strong debut in Wolf of Wall Street, but the controversy of that movie will keep her from a surprise nomination.

    

Sarah Paulson was a strong contender before precursor season, where she has been missing out.  She has the advantage of 12 Years a Slave being a frontrunner, but the disadvantage of competing with a more popular co-star.  Traditionally this is the category where Woody Allen films do well.  Sally Hawkins received a Globe nomination and has been considered to be snubbed by some for previous work.  If anyone surprises out of the main predicted six, I am guessing it is one of these two.

             

Octavia Spencer is a recent winner who received a NBR award, but she has missed out on SAG and the Globes.  Fruitvale Station is not as popular as her competitors' and her role is somewhat small for this category.  However there is a possibility that voters will reward the film by nominating her if they don't nominate the film.  Jennifer Lawrence is the current it-girl that won last year.  She is very popular, well-liked and has a type of role that does well in this category.  There is some backlash towards her and her win last year, which could hurt her campaign for American Hustle.   June Squibb surprised in Nebraska and was a stand-out in it.  This category does not always reward older actresses, but she has been consistent in the precursors.  These are the three competing for the final two slots.

    

Julia Roberts has been consistent in precursors to consider her a lock.  However a win is not expected as August: Osage County has not been all that well received, she is playing too much against type for some and her career has been in poor shape.  Despite missing a Globe nomination Oprah Winfrey is a lock for The Butler.  She is a powerful figurehead who received a majority of the movie's acclaim.  It seems that she earned frontrunner status too early in the race for her to win.  The newcomer Lupita Nyong'o seems as if she will win for 12 Years a Slave.  At this point in the race this is the only really undisputed winner in any major category.

Predicted Five:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave (winner)
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Runner-Ups: Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The Predicted Five

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Pros: Has been the frontrunner for a long time.  One of the most powerful and well-known celebrities.  Reviews are mainly about her, many people are excited for her return to acting.
Cons: Has not been acting in almost thirty years.  There is a danger to catching fire too early in the race.  Early release may hurt her chances.

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Pros: Been consistently recognized as one of the year's break out performances.  Has received as much acclaim as Ejiofor and Fassbender.  Could move up to frontrunner status once the film is released.
Cons: Unknown actress.  Don't see her missing out on a nomination at least.

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Pros: Well known actress in one of the main roles in the adaptation of the well-loved play.  A much more Oscar friendly role than the once major star has received in a while.

Cons: Not as popular anymore, hasn't been in contention since 2007 or nominated since her 2000 win.  Being removed from leading actress may be a sign of lack of faith in her performance.  Internal competition with Margo Martindale.  Film has not been too well received and this could be seen as category fraud.

Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave

Pros: Gives one of the best reviewed performances in this year's best picture frontrunner.  In a strong ensemble cast, the strength of Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender and Lupita Nyong'o cold carry her into the race. 

Cons: Internal competition with Lupita Nyong'o, who is the more popular contender.  Mainly unknown actress.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Pros: Recent winner who gives a small, powerful performance in this well received film.  The kind of role that does well in this category.  Fruitvale Station is bound to receive at least one acting nomination, this is the most likely contender.

Cons: A smaller role.  The early, small release may keep the movie from being a major contender.  Needs some precursor notice.

Runner-Ups

June Squibb, Nebraska

Pros: If Nebraska is a strong enough contender and the two leads gain enough traction she could earn a nomination.

Cons: Unknown actress.  Needs the film to be a hit for her to be a contender.

Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

Pros: Prolific actress who has never had an Oscar role before.  This is the role in play that won a Tony. Starring in a terrible CBS comedy did not hurt Melissa McCarthy's chances in this category.

Cons: Competition with Julia Roberts.  Not a well known name.  The movie may just not hit with voters.

Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis

Pros: Well liked young actress with a well received role in this Coen Brothers film.

Cons: Has not been in serious contention since her nomination in 2009.  Coens films don't always earn acting nominations.

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Pros: Current it-girl, won leading actress last year in another David O. Russell movie.  Gives her a meatier role, getting to play a suffering wife and mother.  Received the "and" starring credit in a very impressive cast.

Cons: Many felt she did not deserve her win last year.  Being popular brings detractors.  May be too soon to her win.  Competition with Adams if she goes to supporting.

Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers' Club

Pros: The strength of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto as nominees could lead her to a nomination.

Cons: Has never seriously been up for an Oscar.  Little buzz around her.  Needs the movie to do well.

Also in Contention

The Counselor opens this week and Cameron Diaz has received a majority of the buzz from the film.  However early reviews are not great and the movie does not seem like an Oscar movie.  Amy Adams is up for leading actress but has also received good reviews for Her.  Sally Hawkins has her supporters for Blue Jasmine, however that movie's buzz has died down.  Lea Seydoux could join the race for Blue is the Warmest Color if the film plays with voters.  Melonie Diaz may find her way in this fairly open category for Fruitvale Station if that film does well.