Thursday, October 24, 2013

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The Predicted Five
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Pros: Has been the frontrunner for a long time.  One of the most powerful and well-known celebrities.  Reviews are mainly about her, many people are excited for her return to acting.
Cons: Has not been acting in almost thirty years.  There is a danger to catching fire too early in the race.  Early release may hurt her chances.

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Pros: Been consistently recognized as one of the year's break out performances.  Has received as much acclaim as Ejiofor and Fassbender.  Could move up to frontrunner status once the film is released.
Cons: Unknown actress.  Don't see her missing out on a nomination at least.

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Pros: Well known actress in one of the main roles in the adaptation of the well-loved play.  A much more Oscar friendly role than the once major star has received in a while.
Cons: Not as popular anymore, hasn't been in contention since 2007 or nominated since her 2000 win.  Being removed from leading actress may be a sign of lack of faith in her performance.  Internal competition with Margo Martindale.  Film has not been too well received and this could be seen as category fraud.

Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave
Pros: Gives one of the best reviewed performances in this year's best picture frontrunner.  In a strong ensemble cast, the strength of Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender and Lupita Nyong'o cold carry her into the race. 
Cons: Internal competition with Lupita Nyong'o, who is the more popular contender.  Mainly unknown actress.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Pros: Recent winner who gives a small, powerful performance in this well received film.  The kind of role that does well in this category.  Fruitvale Station is bound to receive at least one acting nomination, this is the most likely contender.
Cons: A smaller role.  The early, small release may keep the movie from being a major contender.  Needs some precursor notice.

June Squibb, Nebraska
Pros: If Nebraska is a strong enough contender and the two leads gain enough traction she could earn a nomination.
Cons: Unknown actress.  Needs the film to be a hit for her to be a contender.

Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Pros: Prolific actress who has never had an Oscar role before.  This is the role in play that won a Tony. Starring in a terrible CBS comedy did not hurt Melissa McCarthy's chances in this category.
Cons: Competition with Julia Roberts.  Not a well known name.  The movie may just not hit with voters.

Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
Pros: Well liked young actress with a well received role in this Coen Brothers film.
Cons: Has not been in serious contention since her nomination in 2009.  Coens films don't always earn acting nominations.

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Pros: Current it-girl, won leading actress last year in another David O. Russell movie.  Gives her a meatier role, getting to play a suffering wife and mother.  Received the "and" starring credit in a very impressive cast.
Cons: Many felt she did not deserve her win last year.  Being popular brings detractors.  May be too soon to her win.  Competition with Adams if she goes to supporting.

Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers' Club
Pros: The strength of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto as nominees could lead her to a nomination.
Cons: Has never seriously been up for an Oscar.  Little buzz around her.  Needs the movie to do well.

Also in Contention
The Counselor opens this week and Cameron Diaz has received a majority of the buzz from the film.  However early reviews are not great and the movie does not seem like an Oscar movie.  Amy Adams is up for leading actress but has also received good reviews for Her.  Sally Hawkins has her supporters for Blue Jasmine, however that movie's buzz has died down.  Lea Seydoux could join the race for Blue is the Warmest Color if the film plays with voters.  Melonie Diaz may find her way in this fairly open category for Fruitvale Station if that film does well.

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