Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

The Predicted Five
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Pros: Has done his best work with director Steve McQueen.  Been receiving consistent acclaim for this role and the movie is the Best Picture frontrunner.  Villains do well in this category.  Has been considered snubbed many times before.
Cons: Seems to do better with online fans, has not gotten far on the Oscar's radar.  May be too difficult of a role for voters to stomach.

Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Pros: Everyone's favorite actor playing the best loved figure in cinema history.  Hanks is having a comeback year with this and Captain Phillips.
Cons: Could be overshadowed by Thompson, may focus more on Captain Phillips, movie may not play well.

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers' Club
Pros: Gets completely lost in the part, many people did not recognize the actor in the part.  Voters love risks like this.
Cons: Movie may not be a huge contender.  Leto has never been in contention before, despite taking risks before.

Josh Brolin, Labor Day
Pros: Gaining a lot of buzz for this role and Jason Reitman gets great performances.  Brolin is a talented actor and this is the role that could win him an Oscar.
Cons: Trailer has not even been released and the film seems very divisive.  Competing with Fassbender in the unlikable villain category.

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Pros: Receives a lot of screen time in the trailer.  Surprised audiences with his nominated performance in last year's hit rom com.  Re-teaming with David O. Russell and Jennifer Lawrence.
Cons: Could be category fraud if this is more of a lead.  Split votes with Jeremy Renner or even Robert De Niro.  Movie has yet to be seen.

Will Forte, Nebraska
Pros: Alexander Payne gets his actors nominations.  This is very much an actor's movies and Forte delivers a strong performance in the trailer.  If Bruce Dern is a strong enough contender he could very well carry the SNL favorite to a nomination.
Cons: Only six SNL members have ever received acting nominations, all of whom were on the show before 1985.  Forte has been acting in bit parts for the past few years, but his one leading role was not well received.  Movie may be too small.

John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
Pros: Many people were hoping he would receive a career nomination last season for either Argo or Flight.  Been a very prolific actor in the last two years and was featured in the last two best picture winners.  Many are hoping this will be his shot at his first nomination.  Works well with the Coens.
Cons: May not be a very large role.  Movie may be too understated for the Oscars.  Buzz is more about the actor than the movie or the role.

George Clooney, Gravity
Pros: Clooney usually a comfortable prediction to make during Oscar season.  This movie is a strong enough contender and Clooney is a popular enough star.  With this category being very open he could earn his fifth acting nomination.
Cons: Monuments Men just got pushed to 2014, which will make Clooney a less prolific figure this year.  The buzz for acting in this movie is all about Bullock.  Gravity may just not get any acting notices either.

David Oyelowo, The Butler
Pros: The Butler has been a huge success and has maintained consistent Oscar buzz.  With Oprah Winfrey and Forest Whitaker both up for nominations (and Oprah likely for a win) it is possible that the strength of those two and the film's Oscar potential could bring Oyelowo to his first nomination.  This is a huge, difficult role.  Oyelowo is involved in many of the film's best moments and drives a lot of the drama.
Cons: He has not been mentioned at all.  Seems to be overshadowed by bigger names.  May not be his year for a nomination, will most likely be in contention soon though with the way his career is going.

James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Pros: The movie has been a surprise success and Gandolfini has been receiving some great word of mouth.  The late actor's passing hit many hard this year, some may want to give him a lifetime nomination.
Cons: Small film that may not be remembered Oscar time.  Seen as more of a TV star than a film star.  Outside of Heath Ledger there have not been any recent posthumous nominations.

Also in Contention
If the critical and commercial success Captain Phillips is a major contender co-lead Barkhard Abdi could enter the race.  However the unknown actor, while receiving a fair amount of acclaim, has not garnered enough buzz.  If Wolf of Wall Street is released this year and becomes a big hit Jonah Hill could conceivably earn his second nomination.  Matthew McConaughey's could also be up for a supporting nomination in the universally acclaimed Mud.  He has been having a good enough year that he could be up for a slot in leading and supporting.  Blue Jasmine has maintained some momentum, with most critics citing Andrew Dice Clay as giving the best supporting performance.  The formerly controversial comic could gain some precursor notice if the film is popular with voters.  James Franco earned a fair amount of attention online for his Spring Breakers consideration ad.  Many internet fans are vocal about that film, even though it is not an Oscar movie.

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