Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Best Actress Predictions

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Pros: Adams is the only contender who has not won an Oscar. She has received four nominations since 2005, with her most recent one last year.  She is reteaming with Russell who led her to a nomination for The Fighter and has led Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Jennifer Lawrence to wins.  Based on the trailer she plays a very strong character with a lot of sex appeal.  This would be her career win.
Cons: Movie has not been seen, she has never been nominated in a lead role before, could be more of a supporting role.  Could split votes with her performance in Her or co-star Jennifer Lawrence if this one goes supporting.

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Pros: Huge box-office success.  This will most likely be the fourth Oscar nominated film Bullock has starred in.  A popular actress who won her first Oscar recently and has a box-office hit with this year's The Heat.  Incredibly likable, popular actress who gives a unique performance where she is able to stand out among the breathtaking special effects.
Cons: Sci-Fi movies don't always do well at the Oscars and 3D epics do not receive acting nominations (i.e. Avatar, Hugo and Life of Pi).  May be overshadowed by directing and special effects.  Many feel that she did not deserve her Oscar for Blind Side which may affect her chances.

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Pros: A well respected former winner who is playing an outspoken character in a pretty difficult role.  The movie is about her and based on the trailers and word of mouth she is definitely strong enough for a nomination.  Release date is close to Oscar time.
Cons: Character may be seen as too unlikable for this category.  May be overshadowed by Hanks' Walt Disney.  Disney movies tend not to do well at the Oscars.

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Pros: Has been called the performance of the year by many.  Box-office success.  A great layered, well written character played by a masterful actress.
Cons: Blanchett has been away from the Oscar game for several years.  Early release date.  The movie has been mostly forgotten already, if the movie is not a major contender that will hurt her chances.  A really competitive year in this category.

Judi Dench, Philomena
Pros: Respected veteran.  Movie has been performing great at film festivals.  Judi Dench is bound to receive another nomination sooner or later.  Dench was a stand-out in last year's popular Skyfall.
Cons: Dench has not nominated since 2006.  The movie may be too small, easily overshadowed by other performances that are linked to best picture nominees.


Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Pros: Word of mouth on her performance is great.  This is a tough role, but Winslet is more than up for it.  Reitman's actresses are usually up for nominations.
Cons: This movie has not even had a trailer yet.  Has been polarizing to critics.  Brolin may have the showier role.

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Pros: Is often up for an Oscar simply on a basis of her being Meryl Streep.  This is an adaptation of an award winning play where Streep leads an incredible cast.  Seems to be showy enough to capture voters attentions, will receive a guaranteed Golden Globe nomination if nothing else.
Cons: Finally won her third Oscar, which many felt was an award she did not deserve.  The movie has not been performing well with critics.  Adaptations of popular plays have not been very successful with the Academy recently.

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Pros: Has been cited as a brave performance and has great word of mouth.  This is the category that is often kind to foreign language performances.  The sexuality may be a turn on to some voters.
Cons: But it may be a turn off to others.  This is a very long foreign film with some shocking sex scenes.  The controversy seems to be overshadowing the acting.  Unknown actress stateside.

Brie Larson, Short Term 12
Pros: This performance has been adored by critics.  Could be an upset if she plays well with precursors.
Cons: A very young actress in a very small film.  Going to be tough for her to stand out.

Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Pros: The movie has received almost universal acclaim and she has never received a nomination.  The race is just open enough for her to gain some traction.
Cons: May not be a likable enough character.  Early release date, easily overshadowed by newer, bigger films.

Still in Contention

Enough Said has been a surprise commercial success that could lead multiple Emmy winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus to her first Oscar race, certainly a Golden Globe nomination.  Berenice Bejo won the top prize at Cannes for The Past, but it is unknown how much of a push that film will receive stateside. The Spectacular Now has received enough acclaim to keep Shailene Woodley as a small upset possibility.  Rooney Mara has had a good year and has the best shot at a nomination for Ain't Them Bodies Saints.  If The Book Thief receives enough acclaim its child star Sophia Nelisse could enter the race.

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