2016 Final Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The nominees for this category seemed set in stone a month ago.  All the precursors pretty much agree on this lineup.  Viola Davis will finally win her Oscar for Fences.  Michelle Williams could surprise if Manchester by the Sea sweeps the night.  But Viola has this in the bag.

The other remaining slots are going to go to Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman for Lion and Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures.  Greta Gerwig and Janelle Monae both had good years in multiple films, but aren't strong enough to break into the five nominees.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Supporting Actress:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Viola Davis, Fences	Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea	Naomie Harris, Moonlight	Nicole Kidman, Lion	Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Hard-working, veteran actress with previous Oscar nominations.  She was once a frontrunner for The Help and lost to Streep.  It is Viola’s time and this is an amazing performance that none of these others are matching.	A critical favorite actress who has not won at the Oscars yet.  She is the one who could surprise, but she is going to have to wait longer.	Actress who has been around a long-time that has not been seriously up for an Oscar until now.  Moonlight gives her a small, but pivotal role.  She will ride the film’s good will to her first nomination.	Despite not being a big star anymore, Kidman can still stay in the Oscar conversation.  This is her first successful awards bait role in a while.  She has been up for enough precursors to get a nomination.	Octavia hasn’t been back to the Oscars since she won for The Help (even though she has done consistently strong work, namely in Fruitvale Station).  It is time for her to be recognized again.  She has some internal competition with Monae, but Spencer has been getting the precursor nods.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women	Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures	Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky	Molly Shannon, Other People	Janelle Monae, Moonlight
Gerwig is a critical, indie darling who hasn’t been up for the Oscars yet.  Pundits keep mentioning her in this role, but she’s missed out on the precursors.  Still not Gerwig’s time.	Monae has been having a good year with this and Moonlight.  She has as good of a chance at upsetting as anybody.  Although she will probably miss out this year, she can ride this year to future nominations.	Mirren is one of those names that is always in contention, even if people aren’t talking much about her.  This was a well-received film, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a campaign in place.	Comedic performer delivering a dramatic performance can sometimes be a winning formula, but we would have seen Molly show up more before now if anything was going to happen.	Again, she’s had a good year and is very good in a small role.  There aren’t too many other names to seriously consider.  But if she makes it for anything it will be Hidden Figures.
THE LONG SHOTS
Greta Gerwig, Jackie	Margo Martindale, The Hollars	Margaret Bowman, Hell or High Water	Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women	Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Gerwig has also been in the conversation for Jackie, but that film isn’t a strong contender.  Portman isn’t a strong enough acting contender to carry Gerwig to a nomination for this film.	Veteran actress that has been in the Oscar conversation early on before.  She needs the right role, because this film has been all but forgotten.	Not a big name, but she had the small waitress role that kind of stole the show.  Hell or High Water is going to be up for enough Oscars that this could have been conceivable in another year.	With this and Live by Night, Elle Fanning is definitely working towards Oscar consideration.  But neither film will be strong enough to carry her.	Mbatha-Raw is just waiting for her breakout role.  She is a hardworking actress that critics like, but not going to be her year yet.

Best Supporting Actress Predictions (as of 12/14/12)

Supporting actress is a very tight category.  You can count out Ann Dowd, Kelly Reilly, Kerry Washington, and several other surprises.

There are four set nominees.  But the fifth slot is the one that is up in the air.  I still hold some hope for Samantha Barks.  If Les Mis hits with voters she definitely could upset.  However this is her first movie and she is competing against another actress in her own movie, who is a lock to win.  Nicole Kidman has entered the race this week with surprise nominations in both the SAGs and the Globes.  She is one of those performers that just usually comes up around Oscar time.  I would predict that the fifth slot goes to Maggie Smith.  It looks like Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has a shot at picture, she could be the acting representative from that ensemble.  Plus the veteran actress was also the lead in Quartet, voters often reward for multiple roles.

The remaining four slots seem set.  Despite missing out on an important SAG nomination I would not discount Amy Adams.  However The Master is not a very strong contender and her role is not the largest.  While Adams always seems up for an Oscar nomination she is one that is the weakest.  I would say she is a lock with some vulnerability.

Helen Hunt will receive a nomination for The Sessions, the film does not have enough steam to carry her to a win.  Lincoln may be successful enough to carry Sally Field to an upset.  However although she is guaranteed her first nomination is decades, it is doubtful she will win the elusive third Oscar.

Of course the win seems to be guaranteed to go to Anne Hathaway.  All of the marketing and buzz around Les Mis seems centered around her small but pivotal role.  This is said to be the most emotional scene of the year and the tragedy of it should lead this consistent, but often overlooked performer to the gold.