As of right now I am predicting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to win, although it is far from a sure thing. This is a very topical movie that is difficult and memorable, but clever and funny enough to go down easy. It will be well represented in screenplay and multiple acting categories. This has a consistent presence in the precursors and currently has a slight edge on the others.
Next up is the universally praised Lady Bird. Many are predicting this to win, but Gerwig's directing nomination makes it a little less certain. It seems too light for an Oscar win, comedies don't win at the Oscars. But it still could surprise. Call Me by Your Name has been consistently represented in the precursors throughout several categories and has an edge as being a traditional drama in a year with a lot of comedies and genre films.
Speaking of genre films Get Out has astonishingly maintained its place in the Oscar conversation despite its early release and horror background. Like Gerwig, Peele could easily be left out as a director and it would be a very surprising win. The Shape of Water on the other hand is guaranteed to get its director noticed as well as acting and screenplay nominations.
Dunkirk has been overshadowed by newer releases, but it is still in the race. Just no longer has its chance to win. The Post is not as much of a sure thing as it had once seemed, but respect for Spielberg, Streep and Hanks should help this more standard Oscar fare.
Beyond these seven, the Oscars will nominate between one to two more films (they haven't nominated ten since the voting process changed). The Florida Project has been making a good show in the precursors, but it could still be just about Dafoe at the end of the day. The Big Sick has also stayed in the race. Being shut out of the Globes hurts, but that SAG nomination does more for it.
Other potential nominees include Mudbound, which has been getting notices but it is not strong enough the Oscars to get past their streaming bias. The Disaster Artist seems to just be about Franco and the screenplay. Darkest Hour was not the major player it was expected to be, but it could be traditional enough to appeal to voters. Paul Thomas Anderson always has vocal supporters, but it is doubtful they will line up for Phantom Thread. I, Tonya has its supporters but it buzz seems to be just about the performers and it has a new distributor that is inexperienced in the Oscar game.
Coco is not a strong enough Pixar film to get nominated for Best Picture (something they only pulled off twice, seven years ago). As for the blockbusters they were either too divisive (Star Wars, Guardians) or had too little impact (Planet of the Apes, Blade Runner). Leaving Wonder Woman and Logan, but they would have had a major precursor notice if they were going to have a chance at crossing the finish line. Get Out, The Shape of Water, and a Christopher Nolan movie will be enough of a departure for voters.
Predicted Nominees
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
Call Me by Your Name
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
The Post
The Florida Project
The Big Sick
No comments:
Post a Comment