2016 Best Actress Final Predictions

This is an incredibly strong year for leading actresses.  There will be a lot of quality contenders left out.  While there are so many strong actresses there is no real clear frontrunner.  This could go several ways.  Have Emma Stone as the current frontrunner, especially if La La Land sweeps the night.  Amy Adams has had five previous nominations, she is definitely due.  But we should have seen her win more during the precursors for Arrival if it was her time.  Earlier it seemed like Natalie Portman would take it for Jackie, but that film has fallen out of the conversation.  Her Golden Globe loss was notable.  Isabelle Huppert could get a veteran vote for a challenging role in Elle, foreign language films can often do well here.  One of these four will win, Stone has the current edge as she is attach to a potential Best Picture frontrunner.  All are assured nominations.

That would leave the final slot going to Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins.  The film performed well and the Golden Globes proved how beloved the Oscar staple continues to be.  This won't earn her a fourth Oscar, but she is most likely going to have a nomination.  Although if there is a surprise, she is the one to go.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actress:

PREDICTED NOMINEES
Emma Stone, La La Land	Amy Adams, Arrival	Natalie Portman, Jackie	Isabelle Huppert, Elle	Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
No frontrunner for this category.  You could make the case for four actresses winning.  Right now Emma Stone seems most likely.  Well-liked, young talent with a previous nomination who is starring in one of the Best Picture frontrunners.  Not a strong lock, but until a SAG winner shakes it up, she seems most likely.	Amy Adams has lost five times before.  She is definitely due and she has had a good year.  Arrival did great business and she also played the Oscar game with Nocturnal Animals.  However she should have been winning more in the precursors if she was going to have her career win.	Seemed like the frontrunner earlier, but the film has almost completely fallen out of the awards conversation.  She should get a nomination, but it doesn’t seem strong enough for her to second win.  Her career hasn’t been strong enough in recent years and this isn’t a strong enough film to give a fairly young actress a second leading Oscar win.	The Golden Globe winner that many seemed to think wouldn’t make the final cut. Huppert is a veteran actress in a powerful, controversial role.  Her performance has the edge her competition lacks.  This is also the category where foreign language performances can do well.  She may end up with the Oscar in the end.	Her Golden Globe speech clinched her Oscar nomination.  Factor in Hugh Grant’s likely nomination and there is enough strength for Streep.  She has been nominated pretty consistently in recent years over strong competition (August: Osage County, Into the Woods).  She will continue her streak as being an Oscar mainstay.
THE RUNNER-UPS
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women	Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train	Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures	Ruth Negga, Loving	Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Bening is one that pundits seem to overestimate.  She is well respected, but is inconsistent when it comes to the Oscars.  Her film isn’t strong enough, but she has remained in the conversation just enough to stay a runner-up.	Not really an Oscar film, but Blunt received a surprise SAG and BAFTA nomination for the role.  Rosamund Pike was nominated for a similar pulpy role a few years ago.  Blunt is on her way to an Oscar nomination, especially after missing for Sicario last year.  It isn’t a sure thing, but she is still in the running.	Previous Oscar nominee with a popular TV series.  This film should be fresh in voters’ minds and is doing great at the box-office.  It isn’t the showiest Oscar bait, but Henson is strong enough for continued consideration.	Negga is falling out of contention with stronger competition outperforming her.  She is not a name yet, while the others in consideration are a bit more established.  Loving needs some Best Picture love for her to make the cut, but it seems less and less likely.	Chastain missed her Oscar a few years ago and will definitely earn her way back.  Miss Sloane did well enough, but she is a fairly weak contender at this stage of the race.  She will have to wait for another year.
THE LONG SHOTS
Rebecca Hall, Christine	Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship	Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals	Sally Field, Hello, My Name is Doris	Marion Cotillard, Allied
Hall has done a lot of great work, but has never been up for Oscar consideration.  This is her edgiest performance, but the film seems too small.	Surprise arthouse hit from earlier in the year and the best chance Beckinsale has ever had at an Oscar nomination.   Not strong enough though.	Bolstering Adams Oscar credentials is another baity film.  Nocturnal Animals is not a sure thing, but some voting bodies have responded to it.  Not going to overshadow Arrival, but definitely worth mentioning.	Veteran actress with a great late in life lead role.  This was released too early for Field to make the cut.	Cotillard is always interesting in Oscar season.  She almost always has one role in early contention, but they usually fall off by the time the Oscar nominations are announced.  This year is no different.

Best Actress Predictions

                

Normally this is easily the weakest category, but this year there have been plenty of great female performances that have gotten notice.  None of these really have a chance, but if there is a surprise it is out of this group (although extremely unlikely).  The popular Jennifer Lawrence was well loved for Catching Fire, which has been received extremely well by critics and audiences, despite its lack of Oscar potential.  Greta Gerwig gets her closest to an Oscar race yet with her Golden Globe nomination for Frances Ha.  Almost it-girl Shailene Woodley has gotten a lot of notice for her role in the spectacularly received Spectacular Now.  Previous nominee Rooney Mara has three movies out this year, with Ain't Them Bodies Saints as her best chance.  The Artist nominee Berenice Bejo won at Cannes for The Past, but there is a stronger foreign language contender this year.  Lake Bell has been almost universally praised for her writing, directing and acting in In a World.  Oscar winner and five time nominee and Kate Winslet, has been well-received in the weakly campaigned Labor Day.   TV icon and recent Emmy winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus has a perfect film vehicle in Enough Said, although a major TV star rarely transitions to the Oscars.  Out of these Bejo, Winslet and Louis-Dreyfus are the only three that have anywhere close to a chance at a surprise nomination but even those three are very slim.

     

Julie Delpy has a bit of a better chance for Before Midnight, she is a respected actress returning to a well-received franchise.  Nominating her could be a nomination for the film.  Short Term 12 was one of the best reviewed films of the year and Brie Larson has received raves from it.  The film is too small and she is too young for her to have much of a chance.  As foreign language performances can do well in this category the much talked about Adele Exarchopoulos stands a chance for the provocative and potentially controversial Blue is the Warmest Color.  That movie seems likely to be regulated to foreign film though.

    

Now we are on to the six actresses that the race comes down to.  Meryl Streep is often considered to be a given.  She did just finally win her third Oscar and August: Osage County is not all that well received.  I would not be surprise if she needs to sit out a few Oscar races before getting another nomination.  Judi Dench, who is often in the race early on but has not been nominated in seven years, stands a chance at returning to the Oscars for Philomena.  I think people are underestimating Amy Adams for American Hustle who is the only one of the six main contenders without a prior win.  Adams has four nominations and is definitely considered overdue.  This is a role with a lot of sex appeal, that is missing from the other actresses, but I could be overestimating her as she has done the worst in the precursors out of the top six.

       

Despite a somewhat weak response to Saving Mr. Banks by some Emma Thompson has consistently gotten noticed.  Sandra Bullock has also done the unthinkable by becoming a lock for a special effects driven 3D movie in Gravity. Potential accusations of the computer animation doing more could keep her from a second win.  After many years away from the Oscars Cate Blanchett returns having been remembered well from the early release of Blue Jasmine.

Predicted Five:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Judi Dench, Philomena
Runner-Up: Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Best Actress Predictions

The Predicted Five

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Pros: Adams is the only contender who has not won an Oscar. She has received four nominations since 2005, with her most recent one last year.  She is reteaming with Russell who led her to a nomination for The Fighter and has led Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Jennifer Lawrence to wins.  Based on the trailer she plays a very strong character with a lot of sex appeal.  This would be her career win.
Cons: Movie has not been seen, she has never been nominated in a lead role before, could be more of a supporting role.  Could split votes with her performance in Her or co-star Jennifer Lawrence if this one goes supporting.


Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Pros: Huge box-office success.  This will most likely be the fourth Oscar nominated film Bullock has starred in.  A popular actress who won her first Oscar recently and has a box-office hit with this year's The Heat.  Incredibly likable, popular actress who gives a unique performance where she is able to stand out among the breathtaking special effects.

Cons: Sci-Fi movies don't always do well at the Oscars and 3D epics do not receive acting nominations (i.e. Avatar, Hugo and Life of Pi).  May be overshadowed by directing and special effects.  Many feel that she did not deserve her Oscar for Blind Side which may affect her chances.

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Pros: A well respected former winner who is playing an outspoken character in a pretty difficult role.  The movie is about her and based on the trailers and word of mouth she is definitely strong enough for a nomination.  Release date is close to Oscar time.

Cons: Character may be seen as too unlikable for this category.  May be overshadowed by Hanks' Walt Disney.  Disney movies tend not to do well at the Oscars.

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Pros: Has been called the performance of the year by many.  Box-office success.  A great layered, well written character played by a masterful actress.

Cons: Blanchett has been away from the Oscar game for several years.  Early release date.  The movie has been mostly forgotten already, if the movie is not a major contender that will hurt her chances.  A really competitive year in this category.

Judi Dench, Philomena

Pros: Respected veteran.  Movie has been performing great at film festivals.  Judi Dench is bound to receive another nomination sooner or later.  Dench was a stand-out in last year's popular Skyfall.

Cons: Dench has not nominated since 2006.  The movie may be too small, easily overshadowed by other performances that are linked to best picture nominees.

Runner-Ups

Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Pros: Word of mouth on her performance is great.  This is a tough role, but Winslet is more than up for it.  Reitman's actresses are usually up for nominations.

Cons: This movie has not even had a trailer yet.  Has been polarizing to critics.  Brolin may have the showier role.

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Pros: Is often up for an Oscar simply on a basis of her being Meryl Streep.  This is an adaptation of an award winning play where Streep leads an incredible cast.  Seems to be showy enough to capture voters attentions, will receive a guaranteed Golden Globe nomination if nothing else.

Cons: Finally won her third Oscar, which many felt was an award she did not deserve.  The movie has not been performing well with critics.  Adaptations of popular plays have not been very successful with the Academy recently.

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Pros: Has been cited as a brave performance and has great word of mouth.  This is the category that is often kind to foreign language performances.  The sexuality may be a turn on to some voters.

Cons: But it may be a turn off to others.  This is a very long foreign film with some shocking sex scenes.  The controversy seems to be overshadowing the acting.  Unknown actress stateside.

Brie Larson, Short Term 12

Pros: This performance has been adored by critics.  Could be an upset if she plays well with precursors.

Cons: A very young actress in a very small film.  Going to be tough for her to stand out.

Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

Pros: The movie has received almost universal acclaim and she has never received a nomination.  The race is just open enough for her to gain some traction.

Cons: May not be a likable enough character.  Early release date, easily overshadowed by newer, bigger films.

Still in Contention

Enough Said has been a surprise commercial success that could lead multiple Emmy winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus to her first Oscar race, certainly a Golden Globe nomination.  Berenice Bejo won the top prize at Cannes for The Past, but it is unknown how much of a push that film will receive stateside. The Spectacular Now has received enough acclaim to keep Shailene Woodley as a small upset possibility.  Rooney Mara has had a good year and has the best shot at a nomination for Ain't Them Bodies Saints.  If The Book Thief receives enough acclaim its child star Sophia Nelisse could enter the race.

Best Actress Predictions: 7/3/13

Top 5

Naomi Watts, Diana
Pros: Naomi Watts has been very prolific in the past several years and earned her third Oscar nomination last year for The Impossible.  Playing a famous, beloved recent historical figure is guaranteed Oscar bait.
Cons: Aside from Watts there is not too much prestige involved in the movie.  No real known director, writer or actors.  She will have to carry the movie on her own and the movie will have to find the right way to portray Diana in an interesting yet fairly unoffensive way.

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Pros: Streep is leading an incredible ensemble in an adaptation of an award winning play.  Streep always leads to awards buzz, this role should be no different.
Cons: Streep is not always a sure thing.  Just won her third Oscar, will have to sit out this win.  Julia Roberts could potentially be campaigned as lead, which would lead to vote splits.

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Pros: Blanchett is a solid actress that has not had a good role in a while, playing lighter for a change should be a good fit.  Woody Allen has certainly written good female roles before and this looks like a good Woody Allen movie.  The role of a frustrated wife struggling with modern issues should resonate with audiences.
Cons: It has been a long time since Blanchett was considered synonymous with awards buzz.  Woody Allen has been even more inconsistent than her however.  If this is a bad Woody Allen movie or even a passable one she will have to sit this out.  Her role in Monuments Men (which is fairly unknown at this point) could be a better shot in supporting.

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Pros: Sandra Bullock is one of Hollywood's most likable actresses.  Has an Oscar win under her belt, has starred in three Best Picture nominees and a box office hit from this year's The Heat.  This movie is pretty much just Sandra Bullock on her own and was a role sought after by many actresses.
Cons: Audiences may not want to see Sandra Bullock in a sci-fi movie.  She could be overshadowed by the special effects and Cuaron's direction.  If the movie fails at the box-office it may fail with awards (ala Cloud Atlas).

Berenice Bejo, The Past
Pros: Earned a nomination from The Artist and won the top prize in Cannes for this movie.  Often times there is one leading actress in a foreign film who can earn a nomination.
Cons: Unsure how the film will be released stateside, Cannes and the Oscars do not always match up.

Runners-Up

Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
Pros: For as consistent of an actress as Cotillard has been since her Oscar win she needs to be invited back.  The role of an immigrant sold into slavery is one that the academy may notice her for.
Cons: Ever since her Oscar win she has failed to earn a second nomination, despite strong work in Public Enemies, Nine,Inception and Rust and Bone.  Could be overshadowed by her male co-stars, Joaquin Phoneix and Jeremy Renner.  Movie may just not work and potential vote splits with Blood Ties.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Pros: An Oscar winner that is switching to somewhat lighter fare.  Jason Reitman movies usually have strong female roles and Winslet seems like a great fit for the director.  The role of a mother in trouble often does well.
Cons: Young Adult got shut out by the Academy despite its good direction, acting and writing.  A lot of competition from other popular actresses in this category, the movie needs to succeed and Winslet needs to stand-out to get another nomination.

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Pros: P.L. Travers, the author of Mary Poppins, is infamous for being difficult with Disney.  This should be a broad character that Emma Thompson can really play up.  If she can combine heart with the more unlikable aspects of the character she could get a nomination.

Cons: Travers is not as famous of a public figure as Disney and is more difficult to like.  Leading actresses are often more likable.  Thompson also has not been in contention nomination in a long time and could possibly go supporting.

Jennifer Lawrence, Serena

Pros: Lawrence won last year's Oscar and is a very popular celebrity.  This role as a wife who is unable to conceive could show a much more dramatic side to the actress.  Also she is acting with Bradley Cooper again whom she clearly has chemistry with.
Cons: the press can be a little nasty towards her.  May need to wait until she is a bit older until she gets invited back.  Also has a supporting role in American Hustle which may be a better bet.

Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

Pros: Acclaimed actress returning to a beloved role.  The movie has been receiving a lot of great reviews and decent box office.  There is awards buzz for it and if it well enough received she could earn her first acting nomination.

Cons: Delpy and Ethan Hawke did not get awards attention for the previous movies.  This is an early release, could be forgotten with bigger upcoming releases featuring more popular actresses.

Also in Contention
Judi Dench (Philomnia), Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco), Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), Kristen Wiig (Girl Most Likely)