2014 Box Office Predictions

I love analyzing the box-office.  Even though I am not good with numbers it is fun to predict and seeing what fails and what succeeds.  I took a look at the movies coming up this year and figured out what has the best chance at being the 50 highest grossing movies of 2014.  Of course there are always surprises.  There will be indie movies and Oscar bait films released that I am unaware of and most likely horror movies that will surprise.  But these are the fifty with the best shot.  These are all domestic estimates.

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 41-50

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 31-40

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 21-30

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 11-20

Top Ten Highest Grossing Films of 2014

2014 Box-Office Predictions (Over $200 million)

10. Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount, 6/27)- $200 million
The last two Transformers passed $300 million, but as The Hobbit, X-Men and Pirates of the Caribbean has shown continuing a series after a trilogy can feature a pretty large drop.  Starring Mark Wahlberg should help this to stay in the public's eye, but there has been little marketing so far and audiences tend to move on quickly.  This series does have its strong fan base, but I think there is enough competition to keep this from doing too incredibly.

9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Disney, 4/4)- $215 million
Last year's two sequels have done better than the originals.  This should be around Thor: Dark World's total.  Captain America: The First Avenger was Marvel's second lowest grossing film, but after The Avengers and raising the stakes in this film this should do significantly better.  The early release should help it from getting swallowed up and this definitely feels more like The Avengers than last year's movies.

8. Big Hero 6 (Disney, 11/7)- $220 million
Will not reach Frozen's totals, but the combination of the Marvel and Disney brands should make this one of the highest grossing animated features of the year.  Should do a little better than Wreck-It Ralph.  Disney has a good hold on November.  Still need to see the characters and the voice cast, but Disney is definitely putting a lot into this one.

7. The Hobbit: There and Back Again (WB, 12/17)- $260 million
Harry Potter and Twilight had a box-office bump in their final installments and this trend should continue with the final Lord of the Rings.  After Desolation of Smaug not doing as incredible as previous Lord of the Rings movies this will not cross $300 million.  The cliffhanger ending of Smaug will either bring people back or make this less accessible.  It will make money, but still underperforming by the standards of this franchise.

6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Columbia, 5/2)- $270 million
Sony got a hold of the weekend Marvel Cinematic Universe usually dominates.  Amazing Spider-Man did well, but not as well as the previous Spider-Man series.  However the trailer has been well received, even though the new villains are not all that popular.  Spidey remains a dependable character and he will do well, but probably only a bit better than the previous movie unless this is really good.  It will bring in a lot of people for opening weekend, but it will need to bring them back.

5. Interstellar (Paramount, 11/7)- $275 million
I may be overestimating this, but this is Christopher Nolan's follow-up to the Dark Knight trilogy.  This has an impressive cast that is headlined by the popular Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway.  The November release could mean Oscar potential.  Right now I am estimating between that it will make somewhere between the totals of Gravity and Inception.  There is still a market for original sci-fi if they are really good.

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Fox, 5/23)- $290 million
This is another tough one to judge.  There is a lot of hype and marketing in this.  The stakes are incredibly raised, but the X-Men movies have made less each film released since 2006.  Featuring Jennifer Lawrence post-Hunger Games should help its total in addition to combining the casts.  This has people excited, but it needs to live up to the excitement.  If it disappoints it may gross a bit lower.  But Fox is calculating this one pretty well.  They will make it a hit, just not sure how much of one.

3. How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Fox, 6/13)- $325 million
The original How to Train Your Dragon was a huge critical and commercial hit.  A big part of that was that it used 3D really well and followed Avatar.  But Dreamworks has been keeping the franchise in the public's eye with a TV series and holiday specials.  The stakes are raised in this one and the characters have grown.  If it is impressive enough in its visuals and storytelling people will keep coming back.  However I am potentially misjudging this as the audience could skew too much older and this is a lot to predict for an animated movie that isn't a stupid comedy.  Despicable Me 2 did incredible because of the Minions, this lacks that simple attraction.

2. Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney, 8/1)- $350 million
I am playing a hunch on this because there is really nothing to compare it too.  But Marvel is clearly being very careful and intentional with this one.  This is following Gravity as a successful space movie and is a Marvel movie that raises the stakes from The Avengers.  Disney will not only use this as the lead in for Avengers: Age of Ultron but also Star Wars Episode VII.  They will be able to turn Rocket Raccoon and Groot in to marketable characters.  The August release worries me, as I am predicting well above Rise of the Planet of the Apes numbers.  But the hype is high and Marvel seems to be extremely confident in this.

1. Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (Lionsgate, 11/21)- $430 million
Easily going to be the highest grossing movie of the year.  Catching Fire just passed Iron Man 3 domestically.  People loved it and have went back to see it several times.  That movie ended on a  huge cliffhanger and a promised of stakes being raised.  People love the books and these movies have turned out incredibly.  I may be underestimating this total, but it will be an incredible sum.

2014 Box-Office Predictions ($90-$115 million)

30. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount, 9/8)- $90 million
Ninja Turtles is a beloved franchise who have experienced a resurgence with their Nickelodeon show.  However hype is almost nonexistent for this movie and many fans of the comics and various cartoons have been critical of the little information that has come out.  It seems to try to be appealing to fans of the 1987 cartoon while making changes to the franchise.  It will probably earn fans of the current series, families may see this more than adult fans.  There is a definite attempt at Transformers, but it will probably be closer to G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra.  There are many other superhero movies this year (notably Guardians of the Galaxy also in August) that this will be lost in the shuffle.

29. The Neighbors (Universal, 5/8)- $90 million

There have already been three trailers that have all been well received and show a lot of great jokes.  This is clearly building buzz off of the success of Seth Rogen's This is the End.  It also features rising star Dave Franco, Rose Byrne (who starred in Bridesmaids which was a huge hit the same weekend in 2011) and Zac Efron who has been waiting for a break-out film role.  This should play well with younger audiences but has a broad enough appeal for older crowds too.  If it is really funny it could get close to Bridesmaids' total, but I am anticipating at least a little under $100 million.

28. Need for Speed (Disney, 3/14)- $95 million
The video game is popular and Aaron Paul has his fan base, but a transition from TV to film is difficult.  Video game movies never do well, Prince of Persia is probably the best it will do.  This is definitely looking to go after the Fast and Furious crowd, but that franchise only improved once it moved away from cars.  Should be decent for March, but not as much as Dreamworks was hoping.


27. Night at the Museum 3 (Fox, 12/19)- $95 million
The original movie was an incredible success.  The sequel experienced a significant drop three years after that.  This will also definitely earn less as five years have passed since the sequel received middling success.  Stiller also underperformed last december with Secret Life of Walter Mitty.  There is also competition with Annie.  I am sure that Fox is hoping for at least this to get close to Chipwrecked or Anchorman 2, but this will definitely be the final film of the franchise.

26. Hercules: The Thracian Wars (Paramount, 7/25)- $100 million
Dwayne Johnson is not a sure thing, but in big action movies he is as sure as it gets anymore.  Teaming him with Brett Ratner in a Hercules movie should play well with general audiences and fans of The Scorpion King.  The failure of The Legend of Hercules could help this, but also potentially hurt it as that movie's poor reception could effect this one.  It will not be a huge hit, but there are enough familiar aspects to make this cross $100 million.

25. Maleficent (Disney, 5/30)- $100 million
Disney is hoping for this to earn close to Alice in Wonderland or Oz: The Great and Powerful, but dark fairy tale retellings have been doing increasingly worse.  Sleeping Beauty is not a popular brand and Angelina Jolie is not a relevant movie star anymore.  If Snow White and the Huntsman made $155 million domestically this should do lower than that as that featured Kristen Stewart.  It won't be as bad as Jack the Giant Slayer, but this does also have the potential to be this year's annual Disney bomb (Mars Needs Moms, John Carter and Lone Ranger).  I think that Disney's marketing will save it, but I may be overestimated it too.

24. Noah (Paramount, 3/28)- $100 million
There are enough elements to make this a success.  Big spectacle, disaster and a Biblical story.  However this may hurt from being either too religious or not religious enough.  Russell Crowe is not a huge star anymore, but this should do business close to Robin Hood.  There is enough hype surrounding this that people will see it right away, but its quality will affect on whether or not people return.

23. Get on Up (Universal, 8/1)- $105 million
Released around the same time as The Butler and features cast members from The Help and 42.  James Robinson is an important cultural figure and if this movie is a good drama and has impressive musical scenes it could be one of the few biopics to do well.  Oscar buzz will help this and Chadwick Boseman is the star to make this work.  I am trying to anticipate a surprise success which is tough, but this should surprise.

22. Gone Girl (Fox, 10/3)- $110 million
There is already a lot of buzz around this one.  Bestselling book, David Fincher and post-comeback Ben Affleck will help this to be a hit.  If it lives up to expectations and becomes an Oscar player it could do even better than this.  This is dependent on quality, but should make back its budget.

21 Rio 2 (Fox, 4/11)- $115 million
The original Rio did well, but the movie was not a huge hit and has mainly been forgotten.  Should do well with families who have a lack of options, but there are other movies that have more box-office potential.  Should do a bit better than Epic, but won't be a new Ice Age.

2014 Box-Office Predictions ($70-$85 million)

40. Blended (5/23, WB) - $70 million
Adam Sandler can do great business (Grown Ups 2, Hotel Transylvania) or poor business (Jack and Jill, That's My Boy).  This should be somewhere in the middle.  This seems to be a little more family friendly, which is the demographic Sandler has been succeeding with recently.  But this premise of a trip to Africa seems to be less marketable and relatable to American families and the re-teaming with Drew Barrymore shouldn't help too much as her career has been very poor lately.  Competition should be the main factor against this.  May is full of big budget spectacles and The Neighbors may take the comedy crowd.

39. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Paramount, 1/17)- $70 million
Moving a movie to January is never a good thing.  Paramount is clearly hoping to making Jack Ryan a franchise similar to Bourne, Mission: Impossible and James Bond.  However Chris Pine is a not a sure thing at the box-office and hype is pretty low on this.  It will stand out in an empty January, however.  The franchise recognition, star power and lack of competition should help this to get around Contraband numbers.  Will most likely do better than Chris Pine's This Means War, but it may not be enough to restart this franchise.

38. The Equalizer (Columbia, 9/14)- $75 million
Even when Denzel Washington doesn't do great business (last year's 2 Guns) he still easily passes $50 million.  Like 2 Guns this is an August release, so it will not do as well as Safe House or Flight.  But Denzel's star power should bring this to $75 million.  Will be in the top fifty films of the year no matter what.

37. Dumb and Dumber To (Universal, 11/14)- $75 million
Despite the legendary status the original 1994 film has it is doubtful that it will be an enormous success.    Jim Carrey did not help Kick-Ass 2 or Incredible Burt Wonderstone last year.  This will do better than those two, but movies with long sequel gaps have not had as much success as Hollywood thinks that they will have.  If Anchorman 2 could only get close to $120 million with its aggressive marketing and people begging for it then it is doubtful that this will cross $100 million unless it is really funny and manages to be relevant.

36. Non-Stop (Universal, 2/28)- $75 million
For whatever reason Liam Neeson does well in February.  Even The Unknown was a decent success for the first quarter of the year.  This will not do Taken business, but putting Liam Neeson on a plane with the support of Julianne Moore will get people in theatres.

35. Exodus (Fox, 12/12)- $80 million
Ridley Scott has been prolific, but has not been doing well critically or commerically in the past several years.  With the resurgence of biblical films this should find an audience.  There are recognizable stars and Moses is one of the more familiar Bible stories.  If it gets Oscar buzz (based on Ridley Scott's recent films it won't) it could do better.  But I am anticipating the Christian right supporting it over the holidays.  Not going to be a huge hit, but could be modest enough.

34. Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros., 6/6)- $80 million
Tom Cruise's career has not been what it once was.  This will most likely hit a little lower than Oblivion but higher than Knight and Day.  Visually it looks like Elysium meets Source Code.  It will have a lot of competition it won't have the critical response or mainstream appeal to pass, but Cruise probably won't earn less than $70 million in an action movie.

33. Think Like a Man Too (Screen Gems, 6/20)- $80 million
The first movie was a huge surprise, but that was in March.  This will premiere in a crowded summer.  But Madea's Witness Protection did well two summers ago with a similar release date and last year's sequel Best Man Holiday really surprised.  The popular cast, notably the inclusion of Kevin Hart, and positive response for the original should help this to do similar business.

32. Muppets Most Wanted (Disney, 3/21)- $85 million
The Muppets had a huge response in 2011, but that was the comeback and was creatively marketed.  This has not had the same ingenious marketing and The Muppets have not been consistently popular since then (their Lady Gaga special bombed).  But this is still a beloved franchise with a decent amount of hype.  If it hits with adults and families it should do close to similar numbers as the previous movie.

31. Jupiter Ascending (WB, 7/18)- $85 million
This will not as much of a failure as Cloud Atlas or Speed Racer but not as big as The Matrix.  Relevant stars Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum should help it find a decent audience, but as evidenced by last summer's White House Down he is not a sure thing.  Original sci-fi's are difficult sells and this has a similar release date to Pacific Rim, which underperformed.  If it gets a good reception it could pass $100 million, but there is a lot of competition that is more accessible and this looks to be potentially divisive among sci-fi fans.