2014 Box Office Predictions

I love analyzing the box-office.  Even though I am not good with numbers it is fun to predict and seeing what fails and what succeeds.  I took a look at the movies coming up this year and figured out what has the best chance at being the 50 highest grossing movies of 2014.  Of course there are always surprises.  There will be indie movies and Oscar bait films released that I am unaware of and most likely horror movies that will surprise.  But these are the fifty with the best shot.  These are all domestic estimates.

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 41-50

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 31-40

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 21-30

Highest Grossing Films of 2014 11-20

Top Ten Highest Grossing Films of 2014

2014 Box-Office Predictions (Over $200 million)

10. Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount, 6/27)- $200 million
The last two Transformers passed $300 million, but as The Hobbit, X-Men and Pirates of the Caribbean has shown continuing a series after a trilogy can feature a pretty large drop.  Starring Mark Wahlberg should help this to stay in the public's eye, but there has been little marketing so far and audiences tend to move on quickly.  This series does have its strong fan base, but I think there is enough competition to keep this from doing too incredibly.

9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Disney, 4/4)- $215 million
Last year's two sequels have done better than the originals.  This should be around Thor: Dark World's total.  Captain America: The First Avenger was Marvel's second lowest grossing film, but after The Avengers and raising the stakes in this film this should do significantly better.  The early release should help it from getting swallowed up and this definitely feels more like The Avengers than last year's movies.

8. Big Hero 6 (Disney, 11/7)- $220 million
Will not reach Frozen's totals, but the combination of the Marvel and Disney brands should make this one of the highest grossing animated features of the year.  Should do a little better than Wreck-It Ralph.  Disney has a good hold on November.  Still need to see the characters and the voice cast, but Disney is definitely putting a lot into this one.

7. The Hobbit: There and Back Again (WB, 12/17)- $260 million
Harry Potter and Twilight had a box-office bump in their final installments and this trend should continue with the final Lord of the Rings.  After Desolation of Smaug not doing as incredible as previous Lord of the Rings movies this will not cross $300 million.  The cliffhanger ending of Smaug will either bring people back or make this less accessible.  It will make money, but still underperforming by the standards of this franchise.

6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Columbia, 5/2)- $270 million
Sony got a hold of the weekend Marvel Cinematic Universe usually dominates.  Amazing Spider-Man did well, but not as well as the previous Spider-Man series.  However the trailer has been well received, even though the new villains are not all that popular.  Spidey remains a dependable character and he will do well, but probably only a bit better than the previous movie unless this is really good.  It will bring in a lot of people for opening weekend, but it will need to bring them back.

5. Interstellar (Paramount, 11/7)- $275 million
I may be overestimating this, but this is Christopher Nolan's follow-up to the Dark Knight trilogy.  This has an impressive cast that is headlined by the popular Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway.  The November release could mean Oscar potential.  Right now I am estimating between that it will make somewhere between the totals of Gravity and Inception.  There is still a market for original sci-fi if they are really good.

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Fox, 5/23)- $290 million
This is another tough one to judge.  There is a lot of hype and marketing in this.  The stakes are incredibly raised, but the X-Men movies have made less each film released since 2006.  Featuring Jennifer Lawrence post-Hunger Games should help its total in addition to combining the casts.  This has people excited, but it needs to live up to the excitement.  If it disappoints it may gross a bit lower.  But Fox is calculating this one pretty well.  They will make it a hit, just not sure how much of one.

3. How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Fox, 6/13)- $325 million
The original How to Train Your Dragon was a huge critical and commercial hit.  A big part of that was that it used 3D really well and followed Avatar.  But Dreamworks has been keeping the franchise in the public's eye with a TV series and holiday specials.  The stakes are raised in this one and the characters have grown.  If it is impressive enough in its visuals and storytelling people will keep coming back.  However I am potentially misjudging this as the audience could skew too much older and this is a lot to predict for an animated movie that isn't a stupid comedy.  Despicable Me 2 did incredible because of the Minions, this lacks that simple attraction.

2. Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney, 8/1)- $350 million
I am playing a hunch on this because there is really nothing to compare it too.  But Marvel is clearly being very careful and intentional with this one.  This is following Gravity as a successful space movie and is a Marvel movie that raises the stakes from The Avengers.  Disney will not only use this as the lead in for Avengers: Age of Ultron but also Star Wars Episode VII.  They will be able to turn Rocket Raccoon and Groot in to marketable characters.  The August release worries me, as I am predicting well above Rise of the Planet of the Apes numbers.  But the hype is high and Marvel seems to be extremely confident in this.

1. Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (Lionsgate, 11/21)- $430 million
Easily going to be the highest grossing movie of the year.  Catching Fire just passed Iron Man 3 domestically.  People loved it and have went back to see it several times.  That movie ended on a  huge cliffhanger and a promised of stakes being raised.  People love the books and these movies have turned out incredibly.  I may be underestimating this total, but it will be an incredible sum.

Non-Oscars: Best Actress

The Oscar nominees for best actress were Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis and Naomi Watts.  I was a fan of Lawrence and am ecstatic that voters had the courage to vote for Wallis.  Seeing Zero Dark Thirty tomorrow finally, so will finally be able to talk about Chastain and Bigelow's newest movie.  So here are my picks for Best Actress Not Nominated for an Academy Award:

Elizabeth Banks, People Like Us

We take Elizabeth Banks for granted.  We are so used to her as a dependable character actress that we forget her leading actress potential.  Banks is an actress that will give a good performance no matter the quality of the production or the size of the role that when she finally gets a substantial character in a good movie she does not squander a second of screen time.  Elizabeth Banks plays the role of struggling, frustrated mother trying to get by perfectly.  She is able to be in terrible circumstances without losing the audiences respect.  Her likability and intelligence are showcased really well here.  She has great chemistry with Chris Pine and helps to bring a great performance out of him.  I am very happy that they took a chance on Banks in this movie.  They easily could have casted someone more popular or younger (not that she is old by any stretch of the imagination), but this movie would not have worked as well without her.  I am sad to see this movie bomb so hard, because I really want to see more of her.

Kristen Connolly, Cabin in the Woods

How do you make the scream queen role seem fresh?  Kristen Connolly really carries Cabin in the Woods on her shoulders as the viewpoint character.  She balances naive and innocent along with intelligent and respectable.  Her transition into action star is also natural and believable.  She was clearly cast for her acting ability and the movie is better for it.  I am surprised that she does not have any movies coming up.  Seems like people would want to cast her and her enviable range.

Anna Kendrick, Pitch Perfect

After being a reliable supporting player in Up in the Air, Scott Pilgrim and End of Watch this is Kendrick's transition to leading roles.  Her maturity and likability help to elevate Pitch Perfect above the average coming of age movie.  She puts her own personality into the role of troubled college student and makes the ideal stand-in for the audience.  She is a terrific singer and plays off of her enviable cast well.  This is not a role with a lot of meat to it, but she gives it her all.  She is also able to have fun and it shows and the fun bleeds into the audience.

Jennifer Lawrence, Hunger Games

I can't imagine Hunger Games without Jennifer Lawrence as Katniss, they really lucked out in getting a  proper actress for this teen action movie.  Lawrence has a youthful enough look to be believable in this setting, but has the necessary maturity.  Despite being voted several times as one of the most beautiful people alive she looks fairly toned down and is able to look like a normal person instead of a movie star.  Jennifer Lawrence carries this movie with the physicality of an action star, but her more personal scenes are what keep you invested.  I actually cared about this character and will be returning to see more of her, can't say that about most leads in these types of movies.  Also in comparing this role to her Oscar nominated adult role in Silver Linings Playbook she demonstrates a range that not many actresses are allowed to utilize.

Aubrey Plaza, Safety Not Guaranteed

Aubrey Plaza in Safety Not Guaranteed delivers one of the best performances I have ever seen in a very specific scene.  There is so much honesty and vulnerability in the scenes when she is talking to Mark Duplass about her mother.  The scene begins with her clearly lying to him and it naturally transitions to her opening up to him in a way that she has obviously never opened up to anyone else before.  It is one of the most heartbreaking things I've seen on screen all year.

As for the rest of the movie, she makes a great anchor for the movie.  She is able to be the more normal character without losing the tragedy that is unique to her.  I have heard a lot of criticism of Plaza for always playing the same character.  And yes you can certainly draw similarities to April Ludgate, but she reaches depths I have seen few other actors reach.  It is definitely one of my favorite performances of the year.

Other Great Leading Performances:

Emily Blunt (Five-Year Engagement), Anna Faris (The Dictator), Noomi Rapace (Prometheus), Leslie Mann (This is 40), Jennifer Aniston (Wanderlust), Razzie Nominated Barbara Streisand (The Guilt Trip)