2014 Box-Office Predictions ($70-$85 million)

40. Blended (5/23, WB) - $70 million
Adam Sandler can do great business (Grown Ups 2, Hotel Transylvania) or poor business (Jack and Jill, That's My Boy).  This should be somewhere in the middle.  This seems to be a little more family friendly, which is the demographic Sandler has been succeeding with recently.  But this premise of a trip to Africa seems to be less marketable and relatable to American families and the re-teaming with Drew Barrymore shouldn't help too much as her career has been very poor lately.  Competition should be the main factor against this.  May is full of big budget spectacles and The Neighbors may take the comedy crowd.

39. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Paramount, 1/17)- $70 million
Moving a movie to January is never a good thing.  Paramount is clearly hoping to making Jack Ryan a franchise similar to Bourne, Mission: Impossible and James Bond.  However Chris Pine is a not a sure thing at the box-office and hype is pretty low on this.  It will stand out in an empty January, however.  The franchise recognition, star power and lack of competition should help this to get around Contraband numbers.  Will most likely do better than Chris Pine's This Means War, but it may not be enough to restart this franchise.

38. The Equalizer (Columbia, 9/14)- $75 million
Even when Denzel Washington doesn't do great business (last year's 2 Guns) he still easily passes $50 million.  Like 2 Guns this is an August release, so it will not do as well as Safe House or Flight.  But Denzel's star power should bring this to $75 million.  Will be in the top fifty films of the year no matter what.

37. Dumb and Dumber To (Universal, 11/14)- $75 million
Despite the legendary status the original 1994 film has it is doubtful that it will be an enormous success.    Jim Carrey did not help Kick-Ass 2 or Incredible Burt Wonderstone last year.  This will do better than those two, but movies with long sequel gaps have not had as much success as Hollywood thinks that they will have.  If Anchorman 2 could only get close to $120 million with its aggressive marketing and people begging for it then it is doubtful that this will cross $100 million unless it is really funny and manages to be relevant.

36. Non-Stop (Universal, 2/28)- $75 million
For whatever reason Liam Neeson does well in February.  Even The Unknown was a decent success for the first quarter of the year.  This will not do Taken business, but putting Liam Neeson on a plane with the support of Julianne Moore will get people in theatres.

35. Exodus (Fox, 12/12)- $80 million
Ridley Scott has been prolific, but has not been doing well critically or commerically in the past several years.  With the resurgence of biblical films this should find an audience.  There are recognizable stars and Moses is one of the more familiar Bible stories.  If it gets Oscar buzz (based on Ridley Scott's recent films it won't) it could do better.  But I am anticipating the Christian right supporting it over the holidays.  Not going to be a huge hit, but could be modest enough.

34. Edge of Tomorrow (Warner Bros., 6/6)- $80 million
Tom Cruise's career has not been what it once was.  This will most likely hit a little lower than Oblivion but higher than Knight and Day.  Visually it looks like Elysium meets Source Code.  It will have a lot of competition it won't have the critical response or mainstream appeal to pass, but Cruise probably won't earn less than $70 million in an action movie.

33. Think Like a Man Too (Screen Gems, 6/20)- $80 million
The first movie was a huge surprise, but that was in March.  This will premiere in a crowded summer.  But Madea's Witness Protection did well two summers ago with a similar release date and last year's sequel Best Man Holiday really surprised.  The popular cast, notably the inclusion of Kevin Hart, and positive response for the original should help this to do similar business.

32. Muppets Most Wanted (Disney, 3/21)- $85 million
The Muppets had a huge response in 2011, but that was the comeback and was creatively marketed.  This has not had the same ingenious marketing and The Muppets have not been consistently popular since then (their Lady Gaga special bombed).  But this is still a beloved franchise with a decent amount of hype.  If it hits with adults and families it should do close to similar numbers as the previous movie.

31. Jupiter Ascending (WB, 7/18)- $85 million
This will not as much of a failure as Cloud Atlas or Speed Racer but not as big as The Matrix.  Relevant stars Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum should help it find a decent audience, but as evidenced by last summer's White House Down he is not a sure thing.  Original sci-fi's are difficult sells and this has a similar release date to Pacific Rim, which underperformed.  If it gets a good reception it could pass $100 million, but there is a lot of competition that is more accessible and this looks to be potentially divisive among sci-fi fans.

Non-Oscars: Best Actor

The Oscar nominees were: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix and Denzel Washington.  Happy to see Jackman nominated for his difficult role.  Cooper is my pick for Best Leading Actor of the year with Denzel a close second.  I was not as won over by Day-Lewis or Phoenix as others.  Now here are my picks for Best Actor Not Nominated for an Academy Award:

Richard Gere, Arbitrage

In any other year this performance would be a major contender and likely nominee.  However this was a competitive best actor race and the veteran actor was denied another nomination.  This is the best I've ever seen Richard Gere.  He does not play this role safe, he allows his character to be despicable and own all of the moral compromises.  Gere plays the character as smart and charismatic but troubled.  The biggest testament to him as an actor is that he makes this character relatable, you feel for him.  Despite the fact that he is richer than anyone in the audience and makes choices none of us could ever bring ourselves to make.  The fact you are invested in this terrible person and captivated by him really makes you respect Gere as an actor.

Michael Peña, End of Watch

Michael Peña has been a stand-out in everything I've seen him in.  He was the only thing I liked about the overrated Crash and helped get me through the uncomfortable Tower Heist.  It is great to see him finally flex his acting chops as a leading man.  Peña has impeccable chemistry with Jake Gyllenhaal but is never dependent on him.  Peña's range as an actor and experience in both comedy and drama is perfect in a movie like End of Watch where the tone shifts from light-hearted to harrowingly realistic and tragic regularly.  The many depths of his character is always present as he is always a faithful husband, young father, true friend and partner and committed cop.  All of these elements clearly wear on him, but he believably lightens the mood with a very natural and likable sense of humor.  I hope that Peña's roles keep getting better from here, he has more than proven himself as an actor.

Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi

With all of the love Life of Pi has been receiving where is the attention to this young actor?  The movie is technically stunning, but it has unfortunately overshadowed one of the year's best performances.  Suraj's Pi is the one human character for a majority of the movie and at only 19 years old (younger at the time of filming) he completely carries it.  This is Pi's story after all and he embodies fear, frustration, hopefulness and one of the year's most fascinating character arcs.  He does all of this while acting with a CGI tiger.  He is acting on his own, but his relationship with Richard Parker is real for the audience.  There are a other actors who portray Pi at a younger and older age, and Sharma's portrayal is consistent with both of them.  Also he gets really skinny, almost emaciated, something Oscar voters usually go for.  This is a terrific debut performance that nobody has seemed to notice.  Hope to see more of this talented young man in the future.

Channing Tatum, Magic Mike

This is a performance I really respect.  For a role that is very physical and energetic it is also tender and personal.  In the stripping scenes Tatum certainly plays the role of the male stripper, but in the scenes about his personal life he shows some surprising layers.  He does not give a big Oscar bait performance, rather he is very close to the chest and normal.  His best scene is when he is trying to explain who is to the love interest.  This was not a well-rehearsed, eloquent character he was tripping over his words and doing so demonstrated incredible vulnerability.  Tatum anchors this movie, shows off his good sense of humor and carries the romantic scenes against the cinematic dead weight that is Cody Horn.  Watching this movie you relate to Magic Mike, he is very much an every man.  You stop noticing that he is a handsome, incredibly buff movie star.  This is the role that really humanized Channing Tatum.

Mark Wahlberg, Ted

I have long maintained that this was one of my favorite performances of the year and I think it was one of the most difficult.  Wahlberg has chemistry with an animated teddy bear and allows you to believe that Ted is really there.  I think that Wahlberg is the best straight man in the business, he anchored outlandish characters in The Fighter and Boogie Nights and provided them with a backdrop and someone to play off of and he does it here.  Wahlberg is so incredibly likable and charming, but he does not play this role like a movie star.  He is able to demean himself quite a bit and make himself look like ridiculous for a good joke.  But even though the character is a lazy slacker Wahlberg makes him feel intelligent and brings quite a bit of depth to the part.  He is able to be funny when he needs to be and restrained otherwise.  This movie would not have worked without this great actor in the lead.

Other Great Leading Performances

Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch), Chris Evans (The Avengers), Chris Pine (People Like Us), Liam Neeson (The Grey), Dane DeHaan (Chronicle), Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained), Karl Urban (Dredd), Martin Freeman (The Hobbit)