Tuesday, January 10, 2017

2016 Best Actress Final Predictions

This is an incredibly strong year for leading actresses.  There will be a lot of quality contenders left out.  While there are so many strong actresses there is no real clear frontrunner.  This could go several ways.  Have Emma Stone as the current frontrunner, especially if La La Land sweeps the night.  Amy Adams has had five previous nominations, she is definitely due.  But we should have seen her win more during the precursors for Arrival if it was her time.  Earlier it seemed like Natalie Portman would take it for Jackie, but that film has fallen out of the conversation.  Her Golden Globe loss was notable.  Isabelle Huppert could get a veteran vote for a challenging role in Elle, foreign language films can often do well here.  One of these four will win, Stone has the current edge as she is attach to a potential Best Picture frontrunner.  All are assured nominations.

That would leave the final slot going to Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins.  The film performed well and the Golden Globes proved how beloved the Oscar staple continues to be.  This won't earn her a fourth Oscar, but she is most likely going to have a nomination.  Although if there is a surprise, she is the one to go.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actress:

Emma Stone,
La La Land
Amy Adams,
Natalie Portman,
Isabelle Huppert,
Meryl Streep,
Florence Foster Jenkins
No frontrunner for this category.  You could make the case for four actresses winning.  Right now Emma Stone seems most likely.  Well-liked, young talent with a previous nomination who is starring in one of the Best Picture frontrunners.  Not a strong lock, but until a SAG winner shakes it up, she seems most likely.
Amy Adams has lost five times before.  She is definitely due and she has had a good year.  Arrival did great business and she also played the Oscar game with Nocturnal Animals.  However she should have been winning more in the precursors if she was going to have her career win.
Seemed like the frontrunner earlier, but the film has almost completely fallen out of the awards conversation.  She should get a nomination, but it doesn’t seem strong enough for her to second win.  Her career hasn’t been strong enough in recent years and this isn’t a strong enough film to give a fairly young actress a second leading Oscar win.
The Golden Globe winner that many seemed to think wouldn’t make the final cut. Huppert is a veteran actress in a powerful, controversial role.  Her performance has the edge her competition lacks.  This is also the category where foreign language performances can do well.  She may end up with the Oscar in the end.
Her Golden Globe speech clinched her Oscar nomination.  Factor in Hugh Grant’s likely nomination and there is enough strength for Streep.  She has been nominated pretty consistently in recent years over strong competition (August: Osage County, Into the Woods).  She will continue her streak as being an Oscar mainstay.
Annette Bening,
20th Century Women
Emily Blunt,
The Girl on the Train
Taraji P. Henson,
Hidden Figures
Ruth Negga,
Jessica Chastain,
Miss Sloane
Bening is one that pundits seem to overestimate.  She is well respected, but is inconsistent when it comes to the Oscars.  Her film isn’t strong enough, but she has remained in the conversation just enough to stay a runner-up.
Not really an Oscar film, but Blunt received a surprise SAG and BAFTA nomination for the role.  Rosamund Pike was nominated for a similar pulpy role a few years ago.  Blunt is on her way to an Oscar nomination, especially after missing for Sicario last year.  It isn’t a sure thing, but she is still in the running.
Previous Oscar nominee with a popular TV series.  This film should be fresh in voters’ minds and is doing great at the box-office.  It isn’t the showiest Oscar bait, but Henson is strong enough for continued consideration.
Negga is falling out of contention with stronger competition outperforming her.  She is not a name yet, while the others in consideration are a bit more established.  Loving needs some Best Picture love for her to make the cut, but it seems less and less likely.
Chastain missed her Oscar a few years ago and will definitely earn her way back.  Miss Sloane did well enough, but she is a fairly weak contender at this stage of the race.  She will have to wait for another year.
Rebecca Hall,
Kate Beckinsale,
Love & Friendship
Amy Adams,
Nocturnal Animals
Sally Field,
Hello, My Name is Doris
Marion Cotillard,
Hall has done a lot of great work, but has never been up for Oscar consideration.  This is her edgiest performance, but the film seems too small.
Surprise arthouse hit from earlier in the year and the best chance Beckinsale has ever had at an Oscar nomination.   Not strong enough though.
Bolstering Adams Oscar credentials is another baity film.  Nocturnal Animals is not a sure thing, but some voting bodies have responded to it.  Not going to overshadow Arrival, but definitely worth mentioning.
Veteran actress with a great late in life lead role.  This was released too early for Field to make the cut.
Cotillard is always interesting in Oscar season.  She almost always has one role in early contention, but they usually fall off by the time the Oscar nominations are announced.  This year is no different.

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