Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Best Supporting Actress Predictions 7/3/13

Top 5
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Pros: Has received four nominations since 2005, is very well liked and chooses great roles.  Has received a nomination from a David O. Russell movie before and this looks to be a great ensemble which is bound to earn at least one nomination.  The role of a mistress and a criminal is definitely out of her traditional character type which should garner attention.  Also gave the best performance in this year's Man of Steel.
Cons: This is a very large cast and it is unknown how large her role is, she could be overshadowed by others.  Also potential split votes for Spike Jonze's Her.  And maybe this is not the right role for Adams' win.

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Pros: A well-known actress in need of a comeback.  Working alongside Meryl Streep and other great performers.  This is a lead role that is likely to be campaigned as supporting and those often do well.  With Harvey Weinstein, Grant Heslov and George Clooney as producers she is looking at a definite shot at a second win.
Cons: Roberts has definitely fallen out of favor.  There is potential backlash if she is nominated in supporting, also internal competition in both leading and supporting categories.

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Pros: Still one of the most popular and influential human beings on the planet.  If she is acting again she will get the word out and she should be able to use her considerable power to earn Oscar buzz.
Cons: Still unsure about the quality of the movie, earlier release date, unsure how large her role will be. It has also been a long time since Oprah has been in a movie.

Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
Pros: Have read that this is the role that could get audiences to take her seriously.  Diaz is definitely talented and has not come too close to a nomination yet.
Cons: People may be unwilling to take her seriously, she does not have the most Oscar friendly career and is not often seen as a great actress.  Internal competition with Penelope Cruz.

Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Pros: A lot of early buzz around this role.  While Martindale is not as popular as Streep and Roberts she is just as talented and has made a solid career as a character actress on stage, screen and television.  This is her shot at getting recognized in film.
Cons: A lot of internal competition and she may not be well known enough.  Definitely in contention though.

Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Pros: A recent winner who has the role of a mother in a Sundance hit.  This looks to be a completely different character from The Help and one that should help Octavia Spencer's career.
Cons: It is Michael B. Jordan's story.  Still unsure of how this movie will be released or campaigned.  The category should be open enough to keep her in contention though.

Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club

Pros: A talented, likable actress that just has not received the right role.  But as evidenced by movies like Juno she has more to give than we often think.  A supporting role in this movie could earn her a nomination.
Cons: Unsure of how this movie will be received or the size of her role.  McConaughey may receive all of the accolades.

Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
Pros: Talented, hard working actress that has not received awards attention in a while.  The role of a worried wife can lead to a nomination.
Cons: Paul Greengrass is known more for his style than actors.  Role could be too small.

Michelle Pfeiffer, The Family
Pros: Michelle Pfeiffer has been able to transition well into older roles.  Pfeiffer stole the show in the trailer, adding a lot of spunk to the role of a wife and mother.  Her comedic ability may save the movie and I could see her as an out of left field candidate.
Cons: The movie looks pretty goofy and similar to recent DeNiro disappointments.  There is a chance she could stand out, but there is a chance that voters just ignore the whole thing.

Penelope Cruz, The Counselor
Pros: Popular with the Academy and chooses great roles.  Part of a great ensemble, could earn her fourth Oscar nomination.
Cons: Been reading that Cameron Diaz has the better supporting role.

Also in Contention:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyen Davis), Lupita Nyong'O (12 Years a Slave), Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives), Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station), Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)

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